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Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Cubs Jump Into Conversation For Tigers' Tarik Skubal
Jason Ross replied to Steve Drumwright's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
TJS runs 15-18 months now a days for a good handful pitchers to return as teams are generous and cautious. This is his second TJS in a half decade. I would guess that while it's possible he makes a debut around June in '27, the expectation should be August and beyond with the understanding it really may not be until 2028. The Cubs will likely ere heavily on the side of caution. -
Why is drafting organic but using free agency not? Both are allowed under the rules. This always confuses me. Who cares how a team wins as long as the rules are followed? It's like if you win at Monopoly only by landing on the spaces the dice roll and looking at players who also trade properties as bad. It's allowed under the rules. It's not bad for the game. None of this is bad for the sport. Viewership doesn't decline. Having a big-bad-baddie is good in many ways, so even if the Dodgers are the big boogeymen right now, it gives many teams/fans/etc someone to hate and someone to tune into. They're the traditional wrestling heel to many.
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Happens in every sport though. Warriors, Heat, the Bulls...didn't ruin the NBA. Patriots, Chiefs haven't ruined the NFL. I think the people who get pissy about one sport having a three-peat or whatever, routinely ignore that it's sports and there's almost always one dynasty in one of the major sports running things for a half decade to a decade.
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Speaking of Preller, it's fascinating to see how fans who are not Padres' fans view Preller vs those who are. I play baseball with a guy (dude is 55 years old, a lawyer from SD, and pitched last night 9 days after elective surgery in a very sensitive place - he's a machine) who's a Pads fan and man, he'd murder the guy right now. I wife's cousin has a husband who is also a Padres fan. He'd murder him. Outside of Pads land, so many revere his wildman status.
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It's video-game stuff, but my galaxy brain thought would be that either you use Kelly to acquire prospects to trade for the big SP deal (thus keeping someone else you really like) or to backfill the loss of X prospect.
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Yeah, I think you could sell me on this a few ways. I like Carson Kelly a lot, but moving him at least makes some sense considering he shares duties and the Cubs have considerable young catching depth. It feels like a needle thread move but one that probably has a wider birth than Suzuki. Unlikely, but plausible.
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Cubs got some good news today: Steele will throw a light bullpen session this weekend. Should kick start his return.
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Even if it isn't a pure "Happ platoon partner" the team's bench right now is just missing someone you really trust to crush LHP. Even with Shaw returning; sprained wrists can sap power and he basically went from "fine" to "right back to the IL" with the same ailment. Triantos and Dean can easily be replaced with Shaw and "insert LHP masher here".
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I think both certainly have a place. B-Ref is great for talking about why Dave Steib belongs in the Hall of Fame or for looking up the 1996 Chicago Cubs opening day roster. And Fangraphs is better for why Juan Soto was a better player than Nico Hoerner in 2025 (even if I think Nico Hoerner is a killer player) or prospect evaluations. I got bullied into FanGraphs years ago myself. I believe my first post on ProSportsDaily back in, oh, 2006 was talking about Jacques Jones and his RBI production. Good thing that website died and that opinion was scrubbed from internet history.
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Last statement is quite accurate. It's convenient and I think more widely known in baseball circles. But it more of an encyclopedia and history website for baseball history dorks. FanGraphs is far more an eval website by baseball math dorks.
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Fully checks out and highlights the issues I have with bWAR, and why I *never* use it for pitching (I don't for hitting but that's a different story). bWAR uses RA9 as their base and fWAR uses FIP. RA9 has a major blind spot for a pitcher like Thornton who is limiting runs because it's not factoring in strikeouts or walks. It's less predictive. There are obvious flaws in FIP (why FIP beaters are a real thing) but far less flawed than RA9. Especially in the modern game; RA9 can be useful for previous eras in which the strikeout was a bit less in the zeitgeist but especially today, FIP and xFIP are much better. Weaker inputs equals weaker outputs. Thornton is bad. bWAR can't see it, however.
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Not sure what there is to believe or see in that I doubt it actually happens, but their interest can still be real. It's a long shot the Cubs acquire Skubal. Not only do they have to meet the Tigers price they will also have to beat out the rest of the teams. I'd take this as a sign that the Cubs are serious about Skubal with the knowledge that it's unlikely that they can both beat everyone else in prospects and get to a point where they can fully accept the price. But that the Cubs are also weighing that as an option should give everyone a decent idea of where the Cubs are in terms of the deadline. They aren't delusional and understand the price there and have some ability to stomach it. That should mean they will also pursuit the other best options and controlled options.
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Sprained wrist. Team thinks he will start swinging after TDL
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Per Mooney and the Athletic: The Cubs are interested in Tarik Skubal and are weighing options. They outlined that there are lots of ties between Skubal and the Cubs that make sense and that acquiring him could be a head start on singing him. It's notable in that Mooney and Sharma don't drop names like that. It isn't a "Cubs are all in on Skubal and are front runners". But it is certainly something worth a monitor. When they drop names it's more than just a passing mention.
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Sadly this is the life you live if you're a pitcher who cannot get strikeouts. You live by batted ball luck and die by it.
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I don't advocate for losses, but Thornton getting lit up tonight might be a bit of a blessing in disguise. Take the mask off, realize he ain't it, and thank him for the 32 innings before tonight, and go trade for some help in the next few days.
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There's a real chance Thornton is about to turn back into a pumpkin but maybe not tonight, please.
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Pete owns the Cardinals.
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Fun with facts: Webb is 93rd percentile in whiff and 82nd in chase entering tonight. Fun combination of making guys swing at junk and miss a lot.
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Jacob Webb has been an absolute, nailed on, dude.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-29-26
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Easy power, too. -
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Looks like a 19 year old holding his own in A-Ball. Decent listed size. Making a lot of contact at least.
