Jason Ross

The extension was wild to me, too. He's such a beast when it comes to data and bettering himself. Sincerely, I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone "max out" as much as this dude; he does more with less. He has consistently bet on himself. This didn't really need to be in the article, but he told the Lions in 2023 he wouldn't resign unless they made him a starter and they balked at first because they didn't believe in him. He works so hard to be the best he can. It's easy to come away after spending 5-6 hours in constant research of someone as impressed, but man I really like Kaira. I love his YouTube. I love how he just keeps doing. There are some flaws there but if there's someone who's going to bust his ass to be the best he can, this dude is that. Truly, I keep going back to his youtube and trying to learn more from him. And yeah, I do think this is a near perfect fit for him and the Cubs. There's a real need and I'm 100% sure Taira knows the Cubs have a defense for him.

I wouldn't say it's guile. He was leading the NPB in K% and his fastball can hit 99mph. He isn't going to show up and Jacob Misiorowski his way into a fastball-bully, but whiffs and strikeouts come in many ways. Shota Imanaga managed to be a whiff merchant at 91mph. Taira is a sum-of-the parts, though. He's got good stuff that plays up because he's absolutely maximizing his body and delivery. He gets a lot of ground balls because he knew his defense; he speaks about this on his Youtube. He knew who his infield was and he used it. He has 7 pitches and becomes a different beast against RHP and LHP. I wouldn't expect Taira to be a TORP or an ace type, but he feels like a really solid Robin to a Batman. The walks will probably limit the ceiling but the groundballs and mindset likely raise the floor.

The Chicago Cubs have invested heavily in Japanese talent in recent years. It started in February 2018, when the team signed right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish to a six-year deal, making him the first high-prized Japanese star the club had signed since Kosuke Fukudome the decade before. That was after Darvish had already been in the majors for years, so it wasn't the same as when they signed Fukudome before the 2008 season, but it was a marker laid down. Despite trading Darvish after the "biblical" losses of the COVID-19-shortened season, the Cubs kept getting value from him through the 2021-22 offseason. That winter, Darvish helped convince Seiya Suzuki to make Chicago his next destination. In January 2024, the Cubs signed left-handed starter Shota Imanaga as their next Japanese import. Amid those high-profile signings, the Cubs pursued Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki and Tatsuya Imai to varying degrees. Recently, the organization promoted Kenta Namoto to scouting director. It's clear they remain interested in being a destination for players from Japan and are always looking for new talent abroad. This offseason will probably see the departure of the two current Japanese-born players from the team's roster. As reported by The Athletic, the Cubs are "unlikely to win a bidding war for Seiya Suzuki", and with their need for high-upside arms, Shota Imanaga's home run issues are also likely to reduce the team's interest in retaining him. However, with NPB star pitcher Kaira Taima likely to be posted this offseason, the Cubs may not have to wait long to replenish their stores of Japanese talent. But who exactly is Kaira Taima? And why might the Cubs be interested? Kaima Taira - The Positives Kaima Taira finished the 2026 season with the best ERA in Nippon Professional Baseball, at 1.36. If that number feels shockingly low; it is. In fact, it's the fourth lowest ERA ever posted in NPB, behind only two other players whom you may recognize: Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Masahiro Tanaka, both of whom went on to significant MLB success. He also finished fifth in pitching WAR, according to NPB Basement, the Japanese equivalent of Statcast and FanGraphs. The first thing that jumps off the page about Taira is his fastball, which looks to be a very good offering, at least based on velocity and location. Sitting roughly 95 MPH on average (with the ability to peak near 100), he pounds the top of the zone with the pitch. Often, Japanese pitchers throw at the knees more than their American counterparts. Imanaga had to shift from throwing his fastball lower to the upper third when he came Stateside. Not Taira: he locates his fastball at the very top of the zone, and locates it well. He generated a ton of whiff on the pitch—much more whiff than we should expect in America, but it was a plus offering for the righty in Japan, even going by MLB standards. Even better is that Taira has a deep arsenal of pitches to pull from. He can attack right-handed hitters with a sweeper-sinker combination off the fastball and left-handed hitters with a cutter-splitter-changeup mix. You can see, above, how he's already varied in his pitch mix. The sweeper, for example, is used far less against lefties, while the changeup disappears against righties. So not only does he have good fastball placement, he is a ready-made thinker on the mound, when it comes to attacking hitters. Taira uses his mix to great effect, striking out nearly a quarter of hitters faced last year. More important than the swing-and-miss in his game, however, is just how many ground balls he generates. In 2026, he managed a ground-ball rate of 49.3%. Keeping the ball on the ground ensures balls don't fly over the fence. They can also turn luck back your way: When someone finds a hole or works a walk (something that tends to be a bit of a bugaboo), having the routine double play in your back pocket is a great way to erase a base runner before they have a chance to score. You don't have to take my word for it, either. The righty is very open with how he views the game. He's a big fan of data and using science to get the most out of his game. It's not surprising, then, to see that he's already ahead of the curve in terms of where he's placing his fastball and how he attacks hitters. Not only is a data-driven pitcher, he is very open with his game, posting YouTube shorts and videos where he discusses his philosophy, offers lessons and explanations on his specific pitches and talks about life in general He's clearly both a student and a teacher of the game, and while this may not be a "hard" skill, soft skills like that can often translate on and off the mound for someone in an entirely new land. It's likely this understanding of the game (and the desire to keep bettering himself) that has led him to get strong reviews for his mechanics. We'll talk more about his frame (and the negatives of it) later, but what he may not have in pure physical tools, he can make up for by being a hard worker who finds success on the margins. One way that he does that is by managing 6'8" of extension as he barrels down the mound at opposing hitters. While this wouldn't be elite extension in the majors, Twins' starting pitcher Joe Ryan also has 6'8" extension and finished in the 89th percentile last year. This will help his fastball play up, beyond pure velocity. Again, if you aren't gifted the physical tools, sometimes you have to find a way around thatm and Taima has found some ways around his limitations. Tread Athletics (the independent player-development facility now-Cubs pitching guru Tyler Zombro helped to found) highlighted his mechanics to show how, despite being a relative short king on the mound, Taira is able to use his legs to get into his fastball. This is another way that he can take the hand he was dealt and use it to his advantage. He's able to use creative mechanics to really get into his physicality and get results. It shouldn't be surprising that a pitcher who has a deep love for understanding the game has managed to get the most out of himself on the mound. Kaima Taira - The Negatives As fun as Taima can be, there are a few elephants in the room that need to be factored in before any team signs the enigmatic righty from the Seibu Lions. The first and obvious one is that Taira doesn't look like most starting pitchers. In fact, he'd be essentially a unicorn in Major League Baseball in terms of his body composition. As of 2025, the average height of MLB pitchers was roughly 6'2". Pitchers such as Jacob Misiorowski stand 6'7" or taller. Taira is (generously) listed at 5'8", which would make him one of the shortest hurlers in the league. He also comes in at roughly 220 pounds. This isn't to body shame anyone, but to point out that a pitcher of Taima's size is quite unusual and how that body holds up to the pressures of a full MLB starting load is effectively anyone's guess. With any undersized pitcher, there are real durability questions. Earlier, I mentioned that Taima finished with the best ERA in NPB and the fifth-most WAR; but the reason he wasn't first in both is because he didn't accrue as many innings as other starters. In 2026, 17 NPB starting pitchers threw more innings. Moreover, Taira doesn't have a lot of history as a starter; he's spent most of his time as a reliever with the Lions. He got a chance to start back in 2024, but dealt with a few injuries, forcing him back to the bullpen in 2025. How well he can handle pitching more often in the States is certainly a question mark any team who signs him will have to be okay with. Beyond durability, Taira is not perfect on the mound. One thing that stands out: he's prone to walking hitters. While a 7.9% walk rate is not absurd for MLB, it was high for NPB, as just four pitchers had more walks than the righty. For comparison's sake, Tomoyuki Sugano had a 2.6% walk rate, Imanaga a 4.0%, Yamamoto had a 4.4%, Imai had a 7% rate and Sasaki walked 7.1% of hitters in their final seasons in Japan. Taira walked more than almost any other high-profile Japanese pitcher who's planned a move to the States. This is why it's a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground so often. There are also some questions on his stuff—notably, the shape of his fastball. There just isn't much ride to it. While NPB Basement doesn't provide exact pitch data, it's estimated that the fastball sits at a pretty poor IVB. One of the things that made Imanaga's fastball so special is that he was able to achieve good carry from a low release point. Taira's fastball does not have the same IVB and will effectively "sink" more. The good news, is as Tread Athletics points out, a shorter pitcher and a flat release (both of which are definitely true of Taira) can fight poor IVB, but the pitch on its own doesn't look to have outlier or special shape. Are Kaima Taira and the Chicago Cubs A Good Fit? The Chicago Cubs have had more than their share of pitching problems. Between injuries to Cade Horton and Justin Steele, under-performance from Edward Cabrera and a lack of ready-to-go pitching depth in the minor leagues, the organization struggled last season on the mound. Despite finishing with the third-worst fWAR of any pitching staff, the Cubs managed to make the playoffs with 89 wins, but they can't rely on out-hitting their opponents every season. On top of being a poor staff on paper, they are also about to lose Matthew Boyd, Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, David Peterson and Clay Holmes to free agency, less anyone from that group whom they re-sign. The positional need is obvious, but positional need is just one part of this. Stylistically, Taira seems a great fit. He's a pitcher who gets a good number of strikeouts, comes with a ready-made arsenal and would be able to keep the ball on the ground. The Cubs boast one of the best defenses in baseball, and one could argue they have an all-world infield defense, with Gold Glove nominees at second, short and third. It also shouldn't be lost on anyone that Tread Athletics has posted positively about Taira multiple times, either. While I doubt Tyler Zombro is their social media manager, there appears to be overlap between how the Cubs' pitching czar views slinging the baseball and how Taira goes about his game. It shouldn't be surprising, then, to hear that the Cubs are already one of the teams who have been connected to him. From Taira's standpoint, the Chicago Cubs are also a very attractive destination. The NPB star has pitched for the Seibu Lions for the entirety of his career and the Lions have one of the best defenses in Japan. Shortstop Soske Genda is a nine-time winner of Japan's Golden Glove. Genda's double-play partner is Natsuo Takizawa, who is a highlight reel on his own. Taira leaned into his stellar defense, and having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner as replacements wouldn't be lost on the hurler. That doesn't even begin to add in some of the soft stuff the organization seemingly does for their newest members. There's a reason Darvish spoke highly about his time in Chicago; that should make them an even more attractive option than what they offer on the field. Lastly, there's the Scott Boras part of the equation, as the notable super agent is Taira's rep. Jed Hoyer and Boras clearly have a working relationship. Boras represents players such as Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman, both of whom have signed with the Cubs over the last few seasons. This should at least give the two sides a good foundation and understanding of each other before a single number is exchanged. When he is eventually posted, there will be no shortage of suitors for the right-handed pitcher. He will be (much, much, much) cheaper than Tarik Skubal, and with the questions on body size, durability and control, he's more akin in total value to where Imanaga stood two years ago. This will bring many teams to the table initially. But the Cubs can offer a unique situation for the pitcher with their defense, and Taira offers a unique set of skills and some upside to go along with it. It's too early to make any definitive predictions, but it would be surprising if the two weren't in contact this winter, as the Cubs look to shore up a bottom-of-the-barrel pitching staff and Taira looks to find a home in Major League Baseball. It really may be a match made in heaven. View full article

Two things can be true at the same time: 1. Teams who spend more give themselves a wider birth at winning. This isn't an "at" anyone in particular, but it's pretty basic to think "spending more money is a good thing" as a general rule of thumb. Obviously, you have to do so with some semblance of intelligence, but you get the point. 2. A salary cap will not increase parity. While it's true most of the World Series winning teams have had a higher payroll the sport has not had a parity issue for a while. This year reinforces that even if it goes against the normal run of "teams who spend more win more" that we normally see.

Yeah velocity is definitely a great place to start. I do think that the next "frontier" is going to be big repertoires and ways to keep hitters off tilt. While I doubt velocity will become "easy" we're seeing the barrier for entry to the MLB go beyond just velo. Antoine Kelly would probably have been a dude 15-20 years ago and now he can't find an MLB organization to stick in. Hitters will adapt to just velo. So you have to do something more than just throw hard. It's probably a bit because of my own recency bias, but Kaima Taira feels a bit "next gen" in this. He throws seven different pitches. He's super data driven. In a lesser sense, Janson Junk as well. He doesn't do anything particularly great except throw a lot of different horsefeathers. He's not a star but I'd guess he probably isn't capable of sticking around if he threw four pitches.

Not impossible but I find it incredibly unlikely. If I'm Shota, I'm not signing a one-year deal this offseason. I just finished with the 24th best ERA, I threw 32 times. I had a good chase and whiff numbers. HR's are ugly, but all the underlying data minus fWAR thinks I'm good. And if you're a bWAR deciple it's a 2.0 fWAR; that usually gets multiple years. From a Cubs' perspective, you're well aware of the thin margins he runs. If the walks increase, if the velo drops...there's real concerns. And the reality is that the Cubs are best designed to help pitchers who get the ball on the ground; Shota doesn't. Like, I'm not going to say "it's 0%" but I think he's very unlikely to return. You didn't think he was one of your two best SP last year; he didn't get a playoff start. I'm not sure how much he would have seen in Game 3 either. You probably cannot go into 2027 with him as your 2nd best SP. Or your third.

The draft is definitely different. And it was very much a gamble. This was a draft very much about Tyler Zombro and giving him the types of pitchers he wants. If Zombro is the guy the Cubs think he is, it's likely a class that will produce some of the pitching we want. If Zomrbo isn't, it probably won't be good. But that's what you kind of have to do when you promote someone like Zombro the way they did. Either let him cook, or it's a waste. I doubt it'll be a lateral move though. Because it feels like it either will push the org forward or likely suggest they're just not capable of developing pitching with this regime. For better or worse.

I really liked him too. Sincerely, one of the best personalities around the team. I hope he ends up in like SF or Seattle (even though they have a ton of pitching). Just because I want to see him in a stadium that the home runs die in and he can find a few extra years of success.

In a way it's why I'm rooting for it to end up being Brewers vs whomever. It's really hard for the owners to cry about salary caps when the Rays or the Guardians are playing the Brewers. And as someone who hates the idea of owners getting richer and ruining the sport more than they can, any egg on their face is something I'm in favor of.

I don't know. I kind of hate the Brewers' and their "Oh shucks, no one knows who we are" schtick right now. That annoys the ever loving hell out of me. But I probably don't dislike the Brewers more than the Cardinals and it's just recency bias. I don't usually get too wrapped up in hating anyone or anything any more. And hate fuels views.

Yeah there are a lot of ways we can look at NPB numbers. It's hard to always get a 1:1 on things but things such as groundball rate and fly ball rate, for one, are super consistent. Hell, they're consistent from Triple-A to the MLB too because they deal with a lot of pitch type, mix and shape and those don't really change much (they will as they go from NPB ball to MLB, but outside of that it shouldn't change much). There are others that we should be more wary of. Like, I'll let the cat out of the bag, I like Kaima Taira a good bit after a few hours of video and research but his fastball whiff% isn't going to stick at the MLB level. A 95mph heater in Japan is top of the chart. At the MLB level it's average. There are aspects of it that make it better than average, I think, but I'd be a bit worried about it.

I'm not a wrestling fan (and no shame to those who are) but there's one thing wrestling promotions understand: you have to have a compelling bad guy. It fuels the sport. I enjoy having something to hate. Whether the Cardinals, or the Brewers.

Deferred money doesn't affect the LT. It's why Ohtani isn't $1m against the LT. And it's probably not a smart idea to add more than five years to a contract for an OF'er like Suzuki. He had a great year defensively but wasn't always seen as a top-MLB defender even by the Cubs. He's had a few knee issues. And bats don't hold up much past 35 or 36 right now. I just don't see it happening.

Yeah, I think they almost do have to go over the LT and then close to the second. Once you go over it, you might as well go to the second because there's nothing but taxes on your overages. If you have $70m to grab what you need, it's going to be tricky without having a farm system that you feel very confident about trading from. I thought there was overlap between some prospects but they cleared that out with Rojas and Ballesteros being traded. So you're probably at a place where you're not really going to make a prospect for player trade right now. I also don't know if Shaw or Ramriez is getting you the kind of SP you want for either right now. So your money is going to have to do the talking. Either because you're in FA or taking salary dumps. Like imagine you QO (and he accepts Boyd) at $23m, sign another SP for $18m (like Taira) and then Peterson at $14m). Backfill with Cabrera, Rea, Assad. And then you hope Justin Steele is like, Justin Steele? And maybe you get Brown or Horton in the rotation? But that's three guys you cannot count on and I think you have to plan to get nothing from. That's $55m gone and you still don't have any additions to the LF/RF/DH mix or C. And I'm not sure I really like that rotation very much!

Well, if they aren't going over the LT at all next year, than they have less than $70m to spend in total. They need at least two hitters and 3 SP and probably some version of a catcher. They wouldn't be really able to spend money on Happ either if they're going to seriously attempt to address the SP issue.

I don't think Ricketts cares the Brewers are winning. Fans do. He cares about profits. If winning more playoff games makes the Cubs more profitable that's what matters. Who is winning is likely immaterial to someone like Tom. This is a business to him. But I don't think "same old Cubs" means much. We probably don't give Hoyer enough credit here. He traded for one year of Tucker two years ago; no one had that on the bingo card. He signed Bregman to the biggest deal in a half decade, using deferred money; no one had that on the bingo card. He traded prospects for rentals at the deadline. Hoyer has flaws. He's probably in a "proof of concept" off-season where 89 wins and a NL Wild Card Round exit isn't good enough for 2027. But I don't really understand the "same old Cubs" stuff, either. We gotta stop being so defeatest. Hoyer has a lot to do this off-season and has to do it fast with the CBA knocking time off. I'm not sure he's going to get it all done with what needs to happen. But I don't think "same old Cubs" is either rooter in reality or fair. If there's one thing, we can usually expect one unexpected thing out of Hoyer an off-season.

Nope. Just that they were unlikely to win a bidding war there. I would expect them to throw numbers at the situation more than anything. But it'll depend on the budget. It's a lot easier to justify bringing in an OF at $15-$18m if you have $100m to spend this off-season versus $70m. I'll be keeping an eye on what they do with Rea and Steele as some early signs. Like if they non-tender Steele and his (maybe) $7m it could be to clear extra space under that first LT ($70m budget) as a bad sign. Could also be they just think he's toasted, too, so it's not a fool proof sign. It's hard to know what Rickets is going to do here. A lot of us assumed he would stick under the LT last year and he went over. Could be he goes back under. Could be he gets a bug in his ass to get more of that playoff exposure and gives them a boost.

He played well, but the 4 weeks of data doesn't close the gap in the data above. He wouldn't have jumped four NL 2b in OAA. He doesn't deserve the GG this year. That's okay. Sometimes we are just good instead of great.

Suzuki resigning is highly unlikely. The market will push his contract closer to Kyle Schwarber's from last year than I think people realize. There just aren't many good bats. And the Cubs have too much to do with their pitching staff. Sharma and Mooney have said as much, they are not winning a bidding war for him. I'd come to terms with the idea he won't be back. I think he might be the most unlikely pending FA to be back.

Lots of reasons. A mix of what he does well, what the NPB isn't (a league with velocity), and the NPB ball being pretty dead right now in general. I'd expect he continues to limit home runs in the MLB pretty well, but not nearly as well in NPB for all of the reasons above.

Not super hard. He was still good. He just wasn't elite this year and the NL was specifically good. He was 4th in the NL (6th overall) in DRS and 5th in the NL (7th overall) in OAA. DRS +4 OAA +9

If anyone wants to hear straight from the source, Taima has his own YouTube. https://youtube.com/@taira_kaima?si=euHs4_13Wi-3zMsa He's a pretty cool dude. He thinks a lot about baseball. You can get a decent idea on what he thinks about pitching and his philosophy from it. Very open. It's also translated so you can follow along. Worth a dive if you're bored.

I've got one in the can. Website will post it when we get more into FA mode. I'm not Lance but it should give a fairly comprehensive breakdown. I spent hours digging on research, videos, data, etc. I believe it's over 2,000 words. There are good things. There are some flaws. Ultimately I think the two sides have a ton of common ground and expect there to be mutual interest. We should trust NPB statistics. We just need context.

Carroll (12 DRS and 10 OAA) is gonna take RF. Suzuki (14 DRS and 5 OAA) is going to come second. It'll be close, but Corban has the better reputation out there and it's close statistically but in his favor, too. Voters tend to rely on the rep a bunch and when the stats are also mostly on your side, you end up winning. Bregman and Pete will take GG's. Happ will finish 2nd to Chourio. Wynn takes SS, Swanson finishes third.