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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    Baseball is weird sometimes. Maybe it'll be weird tonight.
  2. Jason Ross
    If there's a positive, the Brewers over the last 10 games really aren't hitting well. They've got a 93 wRC+ over that span. That's not to horsefeathers on the Brewers or to say they suck, but they're not having a good go offensively right now,, Now, the Cubs pitching staff may simply be cure to their hitting woes, but we might be catching them during their own slump which may even the playing field. For comparison's sake, the Cubs are leading baseball in wRC+ over that same span.
  3. Jason Ross
    Dude is legitimately exciting.
  4. Jason Ross
    After seeing Maton induce the ground ball, I would like it to be known retroactively, and without being able to prove it otherwise that I meant this seriously and it wasn't a tongue and cheek moment. (It was definitely sarcastic)
  5. Jason Ross
    Ahhh. Phil Maton against Juan Soto with the bases loaded. Just what I wanted to see.
  6. Jason Ross
    Playing the Mets is my favorite.
  7. Jason Ross
    It's not worth trying. You'd both limit whiffs and increase HR%. Here's your league data on pitchers 93mph (fastball only) and less at the bottom of the zone (including chase) and at the top of the zone: Bottom of the zone: xBA - .303, xSLG, -.491 whiff% 20.1% Top of the zone: xBA - .244, xSLG - .431 whiff% 23.9% If we eliminate the chase zones (same metrics in the same order): Bottom: .316, ..515 15.1% Top: .256, .456, 21.6% To recap: throwing fastballs at 93mph in the bottom third of the zone is categorically worse across the board. No, we do not need to try it. It would absolutely make his issues worse.
  8. Jason Ross
    Yep. MiLB deal.
  9. Jason Ross
    The injury bug seems to have hit again. I hadn't been paying attention but he's barely played the last month.
  10. Jason Ross
    I don't think it was dumb perse. He had amazing batted ball data in college and hit super well with wood on the cape. He had the arm for third on paper, being a two way player at Charleston. Sadly, the TJS seems to have affected the start of his career more than they hoped and he doesn't appear to be capable of jumping to 3rd. There's upside if nine doubles and three home runs turns to six of each, for example at South Bend And perhaps as his elbow adds strength beyond the surgery that the home runs at higher levels pop. As a second rounder it was a sound gamble that just hadn't super paid off. But he's still got MLB possibilities.
  11. Jason Ross
    His fastball has insane IVB. IVB is just a fancy way of saying "his fastball doesn't sink as much as others". In layman's terms, it rides up and over bats more. This results in more fly balls, but also, more misshits, popups and for Shota especially, whiff at the top of the zone. To Stratos' point of "keeping the ball down" that's the worst thing Shota could do. There's a reason fastballs belong up now and it's the swing path of hitters. When you keep the ball down the window for hitters trying to hit the ball in the air increases. Shota's fastball fights gravity meaning when he misses "keeping the ball down" it will more naturally float to the middle of the zone. You throw *sinkers* down because they travel below the bat and below the zone. Shota's fastball would ride directly into the barrel. That's a terrible idea. Throwing it up will result in some home run issues. But it also results in strikeouts more often as hitters chase unhittable high pitches. By keeping the ball down, it almost assuredly wouldn't fix his home run issues, it may exasperate them. And would likely lose swing and miss as MLB hitters rarely whiff on fastballs in zone, and especially not 92mph fastballs in zone. FWIW Shota maintains a 3.97 xFIP on the year. He hasn't been bad. The home runs are an annoyance, but he limits walks and doesn't really give guys a free pass.
  12. Jason Ross
    David Peterson career: 22.6 K%, 9.8 BB%, 4.31 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.86 xFIP David Peterson 2025: 20.7 K%, 9.0 BB%, 4.22 ERA, 3.48 FP, 3.72 FIP David Peterson 2026: 19.7 K%, 9.4 BB%, 6.09 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 4.05 xFIP What's the only number that stands out from his career line (over the course of 690 IP, and 123 starts), his 2025 season (Peterson made the 2025 all-star team) and his 2026? It's his ERA in this year only. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher. Did you watch game-2 of the DH yesterday? The Mets infield made 6-errors on their own. They're a -8 OAA as an infield. His LOB% this season is 60%. That is unsustainably low. It's obvious why his ERA is 6.00. It's not really a David Peterson issue. No one should claim Peterson as a star, because he isn't. But he's also a pitcher highly dependent on infield defense and the Mets have been abysmal in this category. The Cubs are a +19 OAA on the infield, which is one of the very, very best. We should expect his ERA with the Cubs to be around the xFIP marker, if not a bit better considering his defense is going to help him out in this regards. Don't be a single issue voter and just attach yourself to the ERA. The story of David Peterson is deeper than his 6.00 ERA.
  13. Jason Ross
    I'd have signed Correa, but also I didn't have any of his medicals at the time, so I'll give myself a break. I wrongly focused too much on arm-strength when it came to SS defense - should have learned a lesson from the plus-plus defensive season Hoerner posted at short with a weak arm. My fear was that his best years would be with mediocre Cubs teams and by the time the team was winning 90-games he'd have been looking at a shift to second. We're 3-years in and he's once again on a 4-win pace with no signs of needing to move off short yet. He's been incredibly consistent in value (even if streaky at the bat). And he's been absolutely excellent value. He' have to entirely faceplant the rest of his contract post-2026 for him not to be a break-even player. Considering he's being paid just south of $200m, that's really impressive. It's hard to get surplus out of a contract that big.
  14. Jason Ross
    I fully admit to being wary of his contract when signed and I didn't know what to expect from it, but Swanson has been a banger of a contract. He's streaky at the plate, but he has done nothing but add positive value at the end of the day.
  15. Jason Ross
    Yeah. Peterson is a good Taillon type upgrade. When everyone is healthy, he'd be a good 4 or 5. He can stabilize the rotation for a few weeks while the Cubs can figure out the upper end SP.
  16. Jason Ross
    Has he been one? His underlying FIP is 3.85 and his xFIP is 4.05. his LOB% is 60%: unsustainably high. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher. Did you see the Mets defense today? They entered today with a -8 OAA. He goes to the Cubs who have arguably the best infield defense in baseball. I don't want to make him out to be a star, but I'd expect the elite ground ball pitcher to be closer to his xFIP with the elite defense of the Cubs. And getting a 4.05 xFIP pitcher for three months for Mathis? Think that's fair value.
  17. Jason Ross
    Just not sure Mathis has a ton of value right now. Limited defensively and hasn't hit for a ton of HR power. He has a pathway to the MLB but it's pretty narrow and narrowing as we move forward. As a possible 3b? Far more interesting. But he has 2 starts there in South Bend and it seems like a pretty long shot. At 1b, a 116 wRC+ is just less exciting. Mathis is a prospect, but I think value wise his 2nd round pedigree is doing some od the heavy lifting. And less-so Mathis' on field production.
  18. Jason Ross
    I'm fine with Mathis going. He just hasn't wow'd me offensively yet. He's good, and his approach is pretty solid, but a 116 wRC+ from a DH/1b at A+ isn't a home run prospect. Mathis isnt bad and the Cubs did give up a real prospect but I think he's pretty expendable all considered.
  19. Jason Ross
    Cole Mathis goes the other way.
  20. Jason Ross
    Yeah I don't super hate Peterson. He's not "good" but he does a pretty okay job on getting whiffs and Ks, and gets a ton of ground balls. His xFIP is 2 points higher than his ERA. He won't win the Cubs the division, but he probably stabilizes the rotation for a little bit and I'm going to assume he's cheap. A lot of ground balls with the Cubs sounds like a good idea.
  21. Jason Ross
    The (former) Mets starter will presumably have an easy time joining the Cubs considering they're in New York. Return is Cole Mathis:
  22. Jason Ross
    The Mets suck haha.
  23. Jason Ross
    It isn't about predicting one anecdotal story about one player's month. The premise was always "the Cubs offense is good, bordering on very good". No team gets a month of data exactly the way you predict it. Yes, the Cubs got a historic month from PCA. They got really bad months from good hitters too. It balances out. I've got the same belief in the offense in July. And chances are someone else will carry a lot of the load. Maybe Busch. Or Maybe Suzuki. And someone will struggle.
  24. Jason Ross
    Negativity gets views.
  25. Jason Ross
    There was a study I can find in 2022 looking at consistent hitters and inconsistent ones. Funnily enough, the most consistent hitter of 2022 (by one metric) was...Patrick Wisdom and the least consistent hitter was Mike Trout. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/measuring-this-seasons-most-and-least-consistent-hitters/ It's old data but it goes to speak to the topic at hand at least. Basically, while consistency is a good thing, it also takes a pretty impressive amount of talent to put up those monster weeks, as well.
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