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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    Beede was one of Tom's guys. Yes.
  2. Jason Ross
    Listen, you have a right to not watch the Cubs if this matters so much to you. I think in the grand scheme of baseball, if you're drawing a line here, then you probably shouldn't have been watching the sport for a while. What Bregman did or was apart of is pretty tame compared to what some of these people are behind the scenes.
  3. Jason Ross
  4. Jason Ross
    The loser they just signed has been the 19th most valuable position player in baseball since 2022. I'd like it if the Cubs signed more losers like that.
  5. Jason Ross
    I do believe Ballesteros would qualify as he is still technically a rookie.
  6. Jason Ross
    No. His CBT number will be based on his real-world dollars. To figure out his deferrals it's based on how much money and what year it's being paid. Bregman's AAV isn't known yet, but based on initial reports his deferrals are not super distant, and looks to be paid out shortly after his contract ends. Estimates have brought his CBT number to around $30-$31m.
  7. Jason Ross
    Yep. And I don't think you sign Alex Bregman and then immediately look to ship Hoerner off for future players. So my guess is that the Cubs keep Hoerner for 2026 and then Shaw is the heir apparent. The Cubs can do a lot of damage in the 2027 draft as they will probably be able to get QOs on a lot of their FAs which makes it less likely, IMO, for the Cubs to try to restock the MiLB side of things with a Nico trade.
  8. Jason Ross
    I don't think that will be the case. I cannot see a trade that would make any sense.
  9. Jason Ross
    No QO attached.
  10. Jason Ross
    This essentially takes the contract from around 5/$175m to 5/$150m (give or take a few mil).
  11. Jason Ross
    Rosenthal: $70m of $175m is deferred.
  12. Jason Ross
  13. Jason Ross
    Not to mention the Cubs signed Bregman to play over Matt Shaw, who was better in 2026 than Cam Smith was. I don't think the Cubs would have been excited to have Smith the starter there.
  14. Jason Ross
    I don't think it'll happen at this point. In fact, I don't even think it makes sense. What exactly would you trade them for? Nico Hoerner on an expiring contract probably won't bring back a lot - his glove-heavy value probably doesn't help his trade value. And the Cubs already made their big SP splash trade. The most likely scenario feels like the Cubs are going to transition Shaw into the starting 2b in 2027 while he provides injury assurances behind 3 positions, strengthens the bench and allows for more off days for players in 2026.
  15. Jason Ross
    Per Rosenthal: Deferrals are included and present day value is lower than $35m AAV. We don't have full details yet but these will be paid out "a few years after" his contract ends with the Cubs.
  16. Jason Ross
    Another thing to point out: Alex Bregman's 3.5 fWAR (in 114 games) would have been the second best fWAR season of Kyle Schwarber's career, and tied for third for Pete Alonso. Bregman's 4.2 fWAR the year prior would have been better than anything Pete Alonso has ever put up. Kyle Schwarber did have a really great 2026 but it feels like a realistic possibility that it's a clear-and-away "career year" type of a season, where as Bregman is a very consistent mid-4's. Alex Bregman is a really good baseball player and very well rounded. He won't hit as many home runs as those guys, but he's a damn good player and the Cubs got much better last night.
  17. Jason Ross
    Absolutely. It feels like Bregman is Hoyer's "Jon Lester" in a lot of ways. I don't think they're exactly 1:1. but Lester was brought in around the same age/length-in-commitment not only to be an important player, but that Theo (as an aside, typing "Epstein" only here feels weird now-a-days and I didn't realize that until I tried it initially) saw him as the "culture component" to his roster.
  18. Jason Ross
    I do not think that will change. I think the roster, as of today, is essentially done. They will probably do their "bring in a few random relievers on MiLB deals" thing between now and camp, but I also think "what you see is what you get". On the bench, I think they will be fine being that RHH heavy. Their lineup has a lot of left handed hitters that will likely sit against LHP - PCA, Busch, Ballesteros are all likely to see far less playing time against lefties. On those days, the Cubs will likely have a lot of left handed hitters on the bench. So I think it's a feature, not a bug.
  19. Jason Ross
    Combination of: 1. Internally they view him as someone who should age well. He's got a strong mix of bat-to-ball skills, glove skills, and isn't someone solely reliant on bat speed. 2. It's clear that the Cubs view him as a culture guy - the Cubs are an organization that clearly cares about the culture. It's why Turner was around, it's why they brought in Craig Counsell, and Bregman seems to be that guy too. 3. A five-year-commitment isn't forever. It's a decently long contract but it fits into a roster churn. Also, when Bregman's deal is up, that's when players like PCA, Shaw, Horton will all be FA.
  20. Jason Ross
    Alcantara has over 500 PA's in Triple-A. That's not so much he has to promote, but he's also seen plenty of MiLB pitching. Getting him curated PAs and allowing him to be the 4th OF'er, mostly to hit LHP is a pretty soft landing spot in MLB. They'll be fine with him in that role and it'll be good for his development.
  21. Jason Ross
    For better or worse it feels like the Hoyer version of Jon Lester. Or at least what they hope is that.
  22. Jason Ross
    He's very consistent, has tons of contact and playas great defense. It wouldn't be shocking for our models to undersell this type. I can't say it's perfect, but for an organization we have consistently said doesn't give a horsefeathers about winning, this move puts the Cubs above the LT, jumps the hitter market and shows the care to some degree. That should tell us something about how the see him internally.
  23. Jason Ross
    I know there are going to be many skeptical. But here's the thing: the team who we call claim doesn't give a horsefeathers just gave a horsefeathers enough to go over the LT for a player. That tells us something in the models we have doesn't match up with the models the Cubs have.
  24. Jason Ross
    Woah!
  25. Jason Ross
    Addison Russell can get horsefeathered.
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