Jason Ross
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Everything posted by Jason Ross
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-15-25
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Sadly, part of AZ Phil's report was that Valdez was seen playing other positions than SS. Might just be for versatilities sake, though, so we'll see. -
NL Central: Reds, Pirates and others
Jason Ross replied to Hairyducked Idiot's topic in General Baseball Talk
BP wrote a pretty scathing article on the Pirates today. They sucked me in with some Canario stuff, but it was basically "The Pirates are going to Pirate, and it's likely they never do anything to put a real team around Skenes". Well written stuff. -
You could tell that there were times that the control wasn't there, always. Three walks usually isn't Shota-esque - it tied his MLB career high and he'd only done it twice prior. But the cool thing with him is that even when he's a little off, he's still a guy you can trust to get you out of big moments. He's just got it.
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MLB Front Office Rankings by the Athletic
Jason Ross replied to Jfoley89's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I would assume a few things: 1. I would guess that there is a bias from Front Office towards perceived budgetary spending. The Marlins are likely viewed as hampered, where as the Cubs are viewed as flush (or should be flush). 2. The lack of Cubs success over Hoyer's tenure. He's been here long enough and without a playoff appearance, it'd be hard to say he's a top-10 guy. If the Cubs can finish around 90 wins, I think they'll start winning votes. But for the Cubs, they'll be more scrutinized for success than the Marlins, who could probably gain votes simply by getting to 82 wins many years. -
Oh I'm sure he does. He's just a bit much for me. It makes me appreciate JD and Ron Coomer. Both seem to have a better sense of when to talk and when to not. Sut comes off on air as feeling the need to fill every moment with noise. In baseball world, Shota really struggled that inning and still went through the teeth of the Padres with the bases loaded. I love him.
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Working with Sut has to be the closest thing I deal with on a daily basis with my middle schoolers. I love them dearly, but the amount of nonsensical stories that I'm told, and the amount of times I just want to say "Can you just shut the horsefeathers up now so we can all get to work?" Has to mirror what Boog goes through.
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To be fair to both, this what the MLB officially lists both as: Bregman - 5"11, 190lbs Shaw - 5"10, 185lbs With that said, if your 9 year old can hit, I say put him at 3b. I'm an equal opportunist. With that said, even if he can't, I'm still more interested in that than watching Vidal Brujan hit, so...batter up.
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Exactly on the last point. Jackson Chourio was bad for 3 months, Wyatt Langford for 5. Its really hard right now for rookies. Patience is needed. I hope this is a quick confidence/work on a smaller thing turn around, but I'm a fan of productive struggle when you can afford it, and offensively the Cubs can *probably* afford it currently, so I'd probably have kept him up.
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Yeah, I agree. The 18 games feels unfair. Two of those games came on another continent and without a good chunk of ST, and of the other 16 games, he saw Arizona, LAD, SD (4 games), Texas and both of the As best starters. The home games he had were brutally cold as well. He does look defeated and bewildered at the plate right now but Id let him fight through it, myself.
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Yeah, the Shaw thing feels unfair, though I do wonder if this is a quick "up and down" to restore confidence. Hes been rough and hes in his head at this stage. The Cubs face a lot of good arms and teams between now and May 12th. Perhaps he goes to Iowa, smacks it around for a few weeks and then comes back when the opponents get lighter.
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I'm super rooting for Mervis myself because his story is pretty cool. Covid-year-undrafted two way player who rockets through the system one year, struggles and then finds his footing is not the normal route. With that said, this has a lot of hallmarks of when Nelson Velazquez showed up, hit a bunch for a hot minute, and then fell into irrelevancy. The hope is that the K rate and the contact rate will increase as he settles in and while the HR's wont stack up on the current bonanza rate, that he'll even out. But that might not happen, and if it doesn't, then it's probably a Nelson Velazquez type ending for him.
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Offseason Top Prospect Lists
Jason Ross replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Already an interesting list. Seeing players like Hernandez, Mathis and Sanders (who Lance had as a guy to watch on live TV) means that the top-20 will be an interesting list. -
As the Bullpen Struggles, Answers May be Found in Iowa
Jason Ross replied to Jason Ross's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Yeah, he's had some interesting developments. At age 31, he fits into the same category as Keegan in that I have a hard time deciding if his outcomes in Iowa are due to age/experience or due to development. He's throwing more strikes than he has in the past and the Stuff+ numbers seem to notice a jump. I'm willing to chalk some things up just to being around Zombro, though.- 5 replies
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- nate pearson
- daniel palencia
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As the Bullpen Struggles, Answers May be Found in Iowa
Jason Ross replied to Jason Ross's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I kind of went the lefty route to ease off of Thielbar a bit. I think there's a good chance he's a decent option, but right now, I'm not sure you can trust him in a spot. His control hasn't been great on the curve, but the Stuff+ and xERA suggest he'll be alright. All of the lefties could be a shorter-term fix as well...maybe two weeks. Let Wicks get one or two more outings in Iowa under his belt that look more like Sunday and less like his first one, and then let him come up to be length (I think Keller can take that for now). It would allow you to ease Thielbar back into being the only lefty one-inning guy when Wicks came up. Just kind of trying to think of ways to keep Caleb around, but lessen the load until he gets his sea legs back.- 5 replies
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- nate pearson
- daniel palencia
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I'm as annoyed with Pearson as anyone but I don't think he needs a DFA spot right now. He's been bad, but I also don't think it's unfixable. Stuff+ still likes him a lot, meaning he's not declining. His location, specifically on the slider, is horrible right now. There's something jacked up mechanically. He was quite good in 26 innings with the Cubs last year. He has options. I'd send him to Iowa and give him a little time to figure that out. If the slider can be located down and glove side (like it had been) instead of up and in the middle of the plate...he's probably fine. No promise he can, but I think it's possible.
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I think we have to pause a bit on the prospect stuff there. Palencia, Little and Neeley have yet to establish themselves, which is a fair criticism! But rookies do that. Palencia is the oldest of all of them and he's 25. It's fair to be skeptical of them, but if this isn't the time to see, then I don't know when it is. I do think it's kind of a time to see Palencia sink or swim a bit more. He's cruising through Iowa this year. I'm not opposed to signing Robertson, but a few caveats: 1. He's sitting at home for a reason. I won't claim to know what that reason is - but there's one. It could be a Robertson personal one, it could be teams are wary...whatever. But good players don't sit at home for nothing. 2. Even if the Cubs do sign him, it's going to take him probably a while to ramp up. He's been in no camp, he's not been throwing in games...he's a veteran and if he wants to play is likely not doing nothing, but it's probably a few weeks to get him going. You'd probably have to experiment with the names above regardless. I'm not sure if any of the names listed here will make themselves mainstays in the bullpen, but I wouldn't mind seeing any of them (for various reasons).
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As the Bullpen Struggles, Answers May be Found in Iowa
Jason Ross posted an article in Minor Leagues
The 2025 season has been pretty fun, so far. The Cubs are playing some of the best baseball we've seen the team play since the pre-pandemic world. This has resulted in a winning record against some of the best teams in baseball halfway through April. However, the fact that they're enjoyable doesn't mean everything has been perfect. The offense has been great, and the starting pitching has been pretty good (most days). Unfortunately, at times, the bullpen feels like it exists for the sole purpose of ruining the first six innings. Not every performance from the relievers has been bad, but overall, it's been the Cubs' biggest weakness to date. We can "woulda-coulda-shoulda" all we want, but no time machine exists to offer more money to Tanner Scott—and the Cubs offered him more than the Dodgers did, anyway, so who knows if it would have helped? Instead, looking internally for fixes, ways to shuffle things around, and solutions is the best we can do. Enter: Iowa. The Chicago Cubs have one of the deepest pools of prospects at their Triple-A level. While many of these prospects are of the offensive variety (Kevin Alcantara, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, James Triantos) and are of no help in this regard, there are plenty of pitchers who are either ready to go now or should be soon. While I'm not sure every issue the Cubs currently have can be simply solved by waving a magical "I-Cub" wand, there are enough arms within reach to at least block much of the leakage. Step 1: Nate Pearson has to go work on some things. Replace him with like-for-like. It's easy to want to drink the Nate Pearson Kool-Aid. The reliever stands 6-foot-6, throws 100 mph and looks every bit of a dominating presence on the mound. In the short time after the Cubs picked him up last year, you could see what they were hoping he would turn into full-time in 2025; a power arm capable of throwing multiple innings and helping to shorten games. In his first 26 innings in Chicago, Pearson posted an encouraging 2.73 ERA, with an underlying 3.65 xFIP to make you think it wasn't entirely smoke and mirrors. This year's version of Pearson has not looked like that pitcher. Instead, his strikeout rate has plummeted to just 10.6%. It's not a Stuff+ issue—his Stuff+ still sits at 107 for the year—but a command issue. Pearson just cannot throw strikes, and when he does, they're bad strikes. Compare, below, his 2025 pitch locations (top) to his 2024 locations (bottom). His fastball is center-cut and his slider is hanging. He just doesn't have it right now. The good news for the Cubs is that he is optionable. Send him to Iowa for a bit and figure out why he cannot bury the slider, It might not be a massive fix, but the Cubs cannot keep letting him go out and struggle. The next bit of good news for the Cubs is that they have a ready-made replacement for Pearson; Daniel Palencia. Palencia is a similar version of "stuff-over-location" to what Pearson is, but Palencia is dominating for Iowa. Rocking an absurd 40% strikeout rate, a sub-12% walk rate, he looks absolutely on point. His Statcast page from Iowa, is gaudy. Even if you're not entirely convinced Palencia is going to be capable of maintaining this level of strike-throwing at the big-league level, he's a version of Pearson who currently looks "right". Swap the two and let the struggler go work on his mechanics, while the other can ride a wave of confidence into the Craig Counsell circle of trust. Step 2: Eli Morgan to the IL. Bring up a second left-handed option. Should it be Luke Little, Riley Martin, or Tom Cosgrove? Eli Morgan blew up again last night, surrendering multiple home runs. This is a major red flag for someone like Morgan, whose calling card is that he limits hard damage. Counsell seemed to confirm those fears postgame, suggesting that Morgan has been dealing with some elbow soreness and that one roster move would need to be made. I suspect that move will be a swap of Morgan for the previously mentioned Palencia, but because I've gone ahead and already made that move, I'd suggest the Cubs go with a second one, and bring up a second left-handed option. The Cubs' only current southpaw reliever is Caleb Thielbar. The 38-year-old is coming off a rough 2024, and so far, his results have not been strong. Sporting an ERA over 7.00 and walking one out of every five hitters faced, it's clear that there are some struggles. For the lefty, there are also some encouraging signs; Stuff+ has him sitting at 111 for the year, his xERA is 3.05, and he's done a good job of avoiding the "heart" of the plate (especially with the fastball) while hitting the "shadow" (the outer portions) of the zone. With that said, it's time to give Counsell a second lefty for those moments. Luke Little is probably the easiest pitcher to add. Already on the 40-man and with some MLB experience under his belt, he wouldn't require much roster movement if Morgan only requires a 15-day stint. Little had three great appearances to start the year, but struggled in his most recent inning, surrendering a home run, two total earned runs, walking two and striking out none. These things happen, but you wish it didn't happen just a few days ago. Regardless, this is likely where I would go. The Cubs could go with three other choices, though none are perfect. Tom Cosgrove, recently snagged by way of San Diego, is a left-handed option who could slot in as the "left-handed Eli Morgan". When he's right, Cosgrove uses a funky arm angle to limit hard-hit balls. Sadly for the Cubs, Cosgrove hasn't been right since 2023, and hasn't looked great in even at Triple A. Riley Martin is another left-handed option at Iowa. Martin has all the right stuff, a big looping curveball, a fastball that's just good enough, and a pretty impressive ability to consistently get strikeouts at any level. The issue here is twofold: the walks are worse than Little while the overall stuff is less, and he's not on the 40-man. I still think Martin will get a cup of coffee in Chicago sometime this year. I just wouldn't do it now. A final choice could be Jordan Wicks. Wicks is different than the previous three options, in that his strength is that he can provide length. While the Cubs would probably like to keep him stretched out in Iowa in case of another starter injury, he could slot into the Colin Rea role that was recently vacated: bullpen length arm. As a lefty, he could realistically come in and get an inning if you wanted, but he could also be used to piggyback with Rea. While this is an interesting option, Wicks's calling card is his changeup, and relievers tend not to focus on a fastball-changeup combo on short stints. Plus, I like having a ready-to-go starter if you need them in Iowa, and with Javier Assad still working his way back, Wicks is that primary option. In the end, I don't think Palencia and Little (or another lefty) fix everything, but if both could provide some stability and give the team options, they could start to get out of this bullpen funk. Closer Ryan Pressly looked strong in his last outing, Porter Hodge is great, Brad Keller is showing that he's useful, while both Julian Merryweather and Ethan Roberts are quickly becoming trustworthy. Tyson Miller is close to a return to the roster. Rounding the bullpen out with two more decent options could begin to fill in the cracks and stop the leaking in the 6th and 7th innings, allowing the Cubs to bridge from their solid starters' efforts to their 8th and 9th inning guys. Which players in Iowa do you think could help the Cubs bullpen? Would you look to promote Cade Horton? How about Jordan Wicks? Is there another arm you like? Let us know in the comments below- 5 comments
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- nate pearson
- daniel palencia
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