Jason Ross

They've been really good with RISP in general, so I think it probably just feels more like that. 3rd in BA, 2nd in wRC+, 3rd in ISO, leading in RBI.

Far too much contact. Career K% around 16%

BA has a "Top-15 outside of the Top-100" List published today: Cristian Hernandez, SS, Cubs Hernandez received a club-record signing bonus of $3 million in January 2021 but struggled for a few seasons before taking a step forward in repeating Low-A last year. This season, Hernandez is off to a hot start with High-A South Bend, hitting .328/.400/.522 over 17 games with a 15.7% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. Hernandez is employing a far more aggressive approach, as his swing rate is up 25% from last year, resulting in more power over the first few weeks. With the ability to play shortstop long term and improving game power, Hernandez is once again a relevant name outside the Top 100.

Counsell spoke like he expected him back Friday. He had fluid drained from his knee.

Yeah, I would let them keep cooking today. I do think come Mid-May, there's an argument to be made to give Ben Brown a rest and let Horton soak up some innings in the rotation as he builds stamina. It will allow Brown to return to the rotation as the year goes and then you can transition Horton back to the bullpen and swap him again with Brown. Neither Horton or Brown are realistically 150 IP guys this year and they'll probably want to get creative to find rest for both. A 6-man could be another way to do both if you don't want to rest or bullpen Brown for a bit. The Cubs shouldn't be in a rush to bring Horton up today, but I do think we're not far away from Cade Horton being very ready. At that point, you have to ask yourself "do I want to waste these bullets in Iowa?" and that will be an answer the Cubs will have to answer themselves. I suspect they won't want to, but it's a just a personal hunch.

Interesting to note here: he's seemingly ditched the torpedo bat.

Great question! Much of the hard hits have come against him when he's slowing down - statcast percentiles won't give context, they just give numbers. Numbers can be great, but especially in small samples, context really matters. I'll use his last two starts to highlight this: In his start on April 16th, The three highest EV's he surrendered were 103, 102, 101. All came after his 50th pitch of the day (FB velo sitting 95 which is 2-3 mph lower than normal). One of these was a home run, which neither counts for LOB% (solo shot) nor BABIP (HR's are not "in play"). In his start on April 23rd, he gave up three hits over a 95 EV, two of the three came in the 5th inning, after 60 pitches. Fastball velocity was sitting 94-95mph I've been very adamant that he's been gassing around 55-60 pitches (though it's getting better) and the EV's go up around that range. It's why he needs to build stamina (which the Cubs are doing) and why I said he needs a few more starts that look more like his last one. Two to three starts gets him into May and I'd assume any point around then we're on Cade Horton watch if they go well . I don't think he's an upgrade today, but it's because the hurdle to clear is stamina which is probably, very much tied to his lack of pitching post-May last year; he's missed 10 months of in-game action. Once the hurdle clears and he's going a solid 80 pitches or so, it's a different story. But prior to this, the hurdle was really "Horton needs a third thing" and he's clearly figuring that out. The curveball was thrown 10 times yesterday and generated six swings, four of which were whiffs. Stuff+ likes it. Early in the game when the juice is there, he's crunching hitters, most of the time, in the zone. He got 11 whiffs yesterday on 76 pitches. And there were players like Reese Hinds, Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson (who are either MLB hitters or who have had MLB success) in that Louisville Bats lineup. That's the closest to "ready" he's looked and a few more starts that build on that, build the stamina and keep that going? Yeah, it'll be less "that's as ready as he's looked" and more "he's ready".

So, I would really hold back on worrying about a lot of the things you're pointing out here. First, the walks; in his first start, two of his three walks came in the fourth inning during a downpour. He could barely hold on the ball. In his second start, two of his three walks came on the first two hitter and on nine pitches. It was very cold that nigh, once again, really felt like he was struggling for grip, not command. Should we entirely ignore them? Probably not, but I think both are easily explained away by weather and rust more so than any concern. Secondly, his BABIP is low. And yes, the LOB% is high. But here is his statcast page: The only issue on there, really, are the walks. He's absolutely elite in most categories. So if we can explain the walks and he's crushing it in terms of whiff, zone contact and hard hit it's not shocking that he's giving up a low BABIP. When we look at MiLB BABIP we have to look at it a little differently than MLB data - sometimes, when we see low pitcher BABIP, it's not that it's luck, it's that his skill is so much better than he's dominating hitters. From watch his his starts, when he's not walking guys, he's dominating them in zone. It's also why the LOB% is high - guys aren't getting on base often. And when they do, they can't string hits together. It's a one and done. He won't keep a 1 ERA or the 94% LOB%, but I also don't think they're numbers to worry about, if that makes sense? As well, his stuff+ is glistening. His third pitch is grading out as a good stuff+ offering. I really don't think he's very far away from being MLB ready or an upgrade for the rotation. Colin Rea has been much better than expected, but I'm not going to fully say he's that good yet. He's throwing a completely different pitch mix so far (scrapped the sinker for a four seam) and the league hasn't had a chance to adjust. I wouldn't bring him up today; I think two maybe three more goes (and they're similar to the last two) and yeah, he's probably MLB ready. And yeah, I do think he's going to be an upgrade in the rotation over either Ben Brown (who still waffles from control issues to impressive) or Colin Rea (who I am not exactly sure what we have yet). No shade on either, I really think that highly of Cade. To put it this way; on a pure RPM basis, his slider and curve are grading out on par with Dylan Cease as is his fastball velocity. And unlike Cease, who's struggled with command consistency throughout his career, Horton tends to pile up the strikes. The upside on Horton is basically "What if Dylan Cease dogpiled strikes?"

He wasn't on mine until February 24th, either. The moment I saw him hit his HR in ST using entirely new mechanics, I got very excited. I really like when I see prospects make changes and implement them quickly; it's a big green flag for coaching and learning. Very rarely is a prospect drafted and then needs to make no changes on their path forward. Being immediately coachable and receptive to new ideas is great to see. It also gives us a reason to believe the improvement in his raw data has a foundation and a source for that change. I really think there's a dude there. He's got a skill you can bank on (60 or better grade power). He's got the size you cannot teach. And he has a coachability aspect. We're now seeing far improved K-rates, a willingness to take what's given and he's cruising through High-A. I suspect more challenges will face him moving forward, but being coachable and receptive to new ideas means that he's got a tool in bag to deal with that adversity. We'll see if it translates into creating an MLB player or what, but he's got a lot of the early indications you'd look for if you wanted to find a breakout prospect. On the NSBB community vote, I had him as, I believe (if my memory is serving me correctly) my 14th ranked prospect. While it'd be easy to say that's an overreaction to a few weeks of good results, it's due to everything I wrote here.

So, I'll preface this with two things: 1. I'm captain of the SS. Shaw 2. I initially thought sending Shaw down was bad I think Shaw belongs in Iowa for a few weeks. Mechanically he's not right. There's a disconnect between his lower half and his upper half. It's why so much is going on the ground - he's just not timing things well. The approach is good - he really has spat on everything since going back with a 12% chase rate. He's also swinging more in the zone and has increased total contact so far. What it says is that the time in the MLB has probably paid off. He's making more contact in the zone while ignoring out of the zone stuff. The stuff at Triple-A isn't fooling him. Everything he's hitting, though, is weak as hell, though. Just really horrid pitch contact. And that's not normal. So him in Iowa really, and probably is for his benefit right now. He needs to find the mechanics again. He shouldn't be struggling this much for contact quality. I think it'll be like two to three weeks. Once he figures the connection between top-and-bottom again, I think he; will cruise through Iowa. Probably best he makes that connection between weaker pitching.

Yeah. The chemistry isn't all the way there but theyre new. That will come with time. His calls and how he interacts flows really well. Ill also admit I watch more than my fair share of I-Cubs games and I have some Alex Cohen experience under my belt.

Random aside; Alex Cohen is a good voice. I really like Boog, but I really like Cohen too. It's nice to have two guys who can bring it in the booth.

Oh I know. It's more I feel bad for the guy.

Sadly, hes got a degenerative disc.

Cubs are now 4-1 against the Dodgers in North America.

Hodge is a straight up dude.

Big out by Boyd!

This offense won't stop.

Was just coming to brag on it. He leads the Southern League in OBP as well.

This time PCA decided to hit it so that it would only a HR in juat one park. Wrigley.

I like when the Cubs hit the baseball in the basket.

I dont think "his body couldn't handle it" is a fair statement. He got hurt, yes, but he threw 88 IP the year prior, so it isn't like his body gets to 34 and then simply gives up. He had a shoulder issue, it lingered, the Cubs were conservative and shut him down. Assuming he's at full health, and the velo suggests he's fine through April, 100-120 feels fair. Hes at just arpund 16 and probably makes one more April start which is a roughly, 120 IP pace. 120 would include playoff baseball, as well, so expect BP work to slow that down.

Bummer. Looked good off the bat.

To be a bit fair, the three guys who squared him were Freeman, Betts and Edman which are two HoF'ers (likely) and Tommy Edman on the heater of his life. Tough inning. But yeah, I'm indifferent. He's fine, he's got some funk. But he's not so good you have to keep him.