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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
  2. Jason Ross
    Alright. Make it happen. All the lefties.
  3. Jason Ross
    I like Alcantara and Birdsell, but it's probably not a much bigger target than Luzardo, if we are being honest. Alcantara is a modest step up from Triantos but not a world-shifter, and while I think Birdsell has utility, he's probably not being looked at much more than a #5 future SP in a trade. Mule, while he has upside, is a massive lottery ticket.
  4. Jason Ross
    The contract isn't horrible, though. Sure, he's probably a bit more expensive than he should be. He's making $27.5m and based on a $9m/WAR quick napkin math, he's probably right there. Add in the $5m buyout when he walks, and you can argue he's a few million too much. With that said, the alternative is that the Cubs signed him to a multi-year extension at a lower AAV and he's signed for 5+ years longer. The Cubs shouldn't have to eat a ton. Bellinger at 1/25m, especially for a team willing to play him in CF, is probably fairly decent value. That's eating like $7.5m. Ultimately I expect the Cubs will trade him. This is a combination of the Cubs standing firm on their value and the Yankees trying to use the Tucker trade to their advantage and squeeze the Cubs a bit from a leverage standpoint. It's just trade negotiations from both sides The Cubs did the right thing and got Tucker over the finish line, this deal be damned.
  5. Jason Ross
    I am confident that the Cubs won't need to go to the Caissie level to get this done. This feels like a Triantos + Something not terrible as the return...and I'm okay with that. Luzardo is risky, but looking at his arm angle change, feels like he was suffering from some mechanical mistakes than can be cleaned up. If his elbow isn't going to explode, he's got plenty of upside.
  6. Jason Ross
  7. Jason Ross
    I think if the Cubs sign a lot of 1 year deals, or maybe, cheaper arbitration guys (Jesus Luzardo) then it shows they may have that money earmarked. It might not, but it could. They could sign some multi-year guys and move off of guys again next year - Happ, Suzuki, Hoerner and Taillon would be mostly movable as they enter the last years of their deal and that could further clear money up. But everyone would mostly know they were doing that.
  8. Jason Ross
    Sasaki and his agents have ben pretty steadfast they don't. As well, the way they've talked, they've made it clear he's willing to go outside of the West Coast and being in a small market may appeal to Sasaki as he doesn't love a ton of attention. As of right now, I get the feeling he's not going to end up with the Dodgers.
  9. Jason Ross
    Busch is not a 3b. We need to let that go. The Cubs had ample chance to give him a look there last year. They didnt. They won't this year.
  10. Jason Ross
    Why? Assad isn't particularly good. He's alright, but Wicks reworked his fastball last year. There's a pretty good arm there.
  11. Jason Ross
    This feels like the Marlins asked for Caissie but will eventually settle on Triantos + a smaller arm, like maybe Assad.
  12. Jason Ross
    I wouldn't pay Caissie. I think you can make an argument that Triantos is fine, here as long as he's doing most of the heavy lifting in the trade.
  13. Jason Ross
  14. Jason Ross
    Was speaking Ha-Seong. But Hyeseong has little interest for me. His bat looks like it sucks on ice. And while he may provide some defense, I think the Cubs are covered on "guys who play some defense but can't hit" with like, a Luis Vazquez.
  15. Jason Ross
    Probably not on the price he's going to command - the Cubs don't likely have the double digit figures over multiple seasons to give him.
  16. Jason Ross
    I doubt it. Workman posted a 140 in wRC+ in Double-A last year, which was about the same as Shaw's 148 he posted in Double-A, but the former's feels far less...exciting. He was a few years older, on his second go-around and struck out 10% more. Shaw then went on to post impressive numbers in Triple-A. I think the best answer is: Matt Shaw should be given the rope to go take the position.
  17. Jason Ross
    Wasn't thinking of it entirely that way but yeah, that makes a lot of sense taking a step back and re-analyzing jt.
  18. Jason Ross
    Yeah, the Workman thing was interesting as a signal from the start. With that said, going in with a Shaw/Workman pair at 3b feels...worrisome? And I say this as Captain of the USS Matt Shaw, Workman's glove is really good but damn, that feels like you're really banking a lot into a rookie at 3b and a guy who's never taken a PA above Double-A (and was a bit of an over-ager at that level as is). With that said, I do like Donovan Solano. I used him as my bench position in my mock offseason and think he's a fun guy. With that said, I'd be shocked if the Cubs went Polanco - they value defense too highly for me to think they'd go back to someone who could be a disaster at the corner. Maybe they'd surprise me there, but they've made defense a hallmark of almost all of their acquisitions. Why I think they'll go with someone who has a soft-floor with their glove (like as you said, Workman. They could love the glove so much they don't care about the bat so much).
  19. Jason Ross
    In a weird way, the Cubs probably don't need a Patrick Wisdom type after the Tucker trade as Kyle Tucker hits LHP really well. Since 2021, he's the 23rd best hitter against LHP in all of baseball, with a 136 wRC+. He's more than capable of taking some games at 1b (and I suspect he'll moonlight a bit in CF, too). It isn't that the Cubs couldn't use some more RHH's, only that they have a bunch of options as to how they handle a bench spot with Tucker in tow. His versatility and splits against both handed pitchers allows the Cubs a pretty wide birth as to how they tackle the bench.
  20. Jason Ross
    Yeah, feels like the team is going to add someone, but that the someone is going to be more of a "speedbump" than a "roadblock" (someone who would be so good they lock down the job without a competition) for Shaw in that, I think they will bring someone else in that has a floor (I think Josh Rojas makes a lot of sense, especially with the glove) to soften his landing on the MLB roster, but that the team is going to give him the opportunity to take the job and run with it.
  21. Jason Ross
    I wouldn't call this a definitive answer, but I think its at least worth sharing. I know there has been some discourse on his defensive ability, and at the least, this is an outside-the-organization opinion from two people who recently watched him play the position.
  22. Jason Ross
    2/$11.5m is fine for Kelly. That's not a bad AAV and he's a good defender. No complaints.
  23. Jason Ross
    I'm so iffy on Luzardo. There's a guy there when he's healthy. He also offers a different skillset. With that said, he's an amazingly risky piece of business. He was flat not very good in 2024. He was hurt, sure, but he's had injuries in his history. He got hit pretty well and lost velocity on the fastball from 2023. He didn't have a single pitch over 100 on stuff+ last year. The price couldn't be particularly high as you're taking a decent amount of risk on. As well, you'd have to have a solution for his problems.
  24. Jason Ross
    That's true. With that said, while the Cubs didn't have to trade a salary, they have, with the Tucker trade, backed themselves into a corner needing to trade an OF'er right now. It's seemed recently that the Cubs and Yankees were close, and that very well may be the case. But we've also seen a few things that make you wonder if there's some small snag. A situation of trading for Castillo would obviously represent a different case in that it'd be assumed most of the year the Cubs would have to move someone out. But I think the Yankees, as well as other teams, know the Cubs need to move an OF'er right now, too. In much the same way that the Cubs probably saw Tucker as a thing they had to do now (and I don't blame them one bit - good trade!) and worry about the Bellinger part later they may seem a trade like Castillo too good to pass up (I'm not sure I'd agree with them, I'm just using it as an example) now that they'd worry about the 2nd step later.
  25. Jason Ross
    The only push back I'd have is that the Cubs have almost all of the money coming off in 2026. I doubt the Cubs blow through the LT, but they could probably clear Taillon and Hoerner next offseason if Horton/Birdsell/Wicks proves themselves stable and they want to run with Triantos, for example. I think today makes it less like that Hoerner is traded even next offseason, but I think they could add one more $20m contract and still find the way to extend Tucker, They could go over a bit next year and probably easily drop back down under in 2026.
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