Jason Ross

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images When evaluating young players, especially in their first cup of coffee at the highest level, it's easy to want to go to a player's FanGraphs page, take a cursory look at the numbers, and come to a conclusion. Jumping over to Moises Ballesteros's page would have you see the 41 wRC+, the .226 wOBA, the negative launch angle, and the 66% ground ball rate. On the surface, that isn't good. But I think doing that ignores the nuance of the true answer, and would give you an overly simplistic view of what his first go against the world's toughest competition really was like. So, instead of burying the lead, I'll come right out with it: I thought it was a good little stint, and I'm glad Ballesteros got a chance to play in Chicago. That doesn't mean I think everything went perfectly—far from it—but that the time he spent was valuable learning experience, and some positive results were sprinkled among those rough statistics mentioned before. First, the good. Before even diving into the data, just by the eye test, it looked like he wasn't entirely over-matched. He looked like a rookie, sure, but he didn't look so far removed that he stuck out like a sore thumb. For comparison's sake, I thought Gage Workman (who, to be fair to him, isn't on the same level of prospect as Ballesteros) looked far more like a fish out of water when he got his smattering of chances with the Cubs. I don't want to pile on to the former Cub, but Ballesteros never looked like he was simply dominated in any appearance he had. Workman felt that way often. Diving deeper into the numbers can help us confirm the eye test. Ballesteros made contact on 87.5% of his swings. He struck out in just 8.5% of his appearances. The bat speed was a positive. He's got a pretty quick swing, as his 72.9-mph swing would put him in the upper third of hitters in that category. He probably got a bit unlucky, on balance. Below is a lineout Ballesteros had in Saturday's tilt against the White Sox. White Sox starting pitcher Jonathon Cannon made a mistake on 1-2. The Cubs rookie did exactly what he should do: he hit a screamer to right field, registering an exit velocity over 100 mph. Statcast estimates the expected batting average on this at .530—a ball you probably think should land as a knock. Instead, the White Sox right fielder tracks the ball down on the run; Ballesteros is out. That's some bad luck! ckQ4M1BfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUZKWkJnZFNBQW9BVzFBQ1VBQUhWdzVSQUZnTVVRVUFVMUFFQndzSENBRlZDRkVI.mp4 While there were some obvious positives, Ballesteros didn't just bad-luck his way to a 41 wRC+, either. Sure, it's a very small sample, and there isn't anything that I find as a massive red flag, but there are places for polish—namely, in learning how to rein in his style. He's a hitter who excels at making contact, and lots of it. He also is a hitter who swings more often than is the norm. We saw this in Iowa, as Ballesteros was in the 83rd percentile of hitters in zone-swing%, meaning he swings a lot, and in the 21st percentile of out-of-zone-swing, which also means he swings a lot. Savvy major-league pitchers can exploit this (more so than developing Triple-A pitchers), as Marlins pitcher Vicente Bellozo did during the rookie's second-ever MLB at-bat. The situation; Moises Ballesteros strode to the plate. The score was tied, the bases were loaded, and the rookie is set to be the early-inning hero. And the crowd knew it. The Cubs DH watched the first pitch, a curveball in the dirt, to get ahead in the count; the difference between 0-1 and 1-0 is huge for a hitter. Behind in the count, Bellozo then threw a changeup up and away. It wasn't a good pitch, nor one Ballesteros should even have considered swinging at; nothing good was going to come of it. Perhaps it was nerves, excitement, whatever. He swung, and grounded into a weak double play. Inning over. Threat over. RDFBTWJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdCV1UxUUFWQW9BQ1ZZRFZnQUhWdzRIQUZrTkFnY0FBVmNFQmdkV0FGWUFCMVJm.mp4 The moral of the story is simple: just because you can hit it doesn't mean you should hit it. A swing and a miss would have been preferable in this situation, but a combination of high-swing% and high-contact% results in a deadly twin-killing instead of having the Marlins' pitcher on the ropes. The Cubs would eventually win the game 5-4, so this didn't ultimately cost them anything, but it's a good highlight of where Ballesteros can learn. This wasn't exactly a one-off, and Ballesteros swung too often at pitches out of the zone. Two-thirds of his contact was made up of grounders, and a lot of that was the swing choices he made. I don't mean to harp on the kid, though. Baseball is an iterative game, and jumping to the major-league level creates a massive learning curve, but it's pointing out where things can be fixed and improved upon. When Ballesteros can be just a bit more choosy, he'll really begin to do damage. It's there. He hit a few balls on the button. But too often, he was caught out hitting weak ground balls. As the Cubs' prospective slugger heads back to Iowa, he should do so with his head held high. I'm sure he wishes he had picked up a few extra-base hits or come through with the bases loaded, but there was nothing egregiously bad in his first 18 chances at the highest level. For him to truly stick, he will need to use some sandpaper on the rough edges, but this isn't a unique situation. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw have had to adjust their swings, and we can see just how much that's improved the former (while the latter looks better in limited time, as well). I'm excited to see him refine his approach as he moves forward, and it doesn't have to be a sweeping change. He can still be an aggressive, high-contact hitter. He should just plan to be a bit more selective. What did you think of Moises Ballesteros's first little bit in Chicago? Do you think he has the bat to stick as a DH? When do you think he'll be up next? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

I'm not super excited about Danny P's whiff, but it's not terrible, either. He's getting 23% whiffs right now, and that can probably move up a bit, but if you miss barrels like he does, you can live that way. Ideally it'd be a bit more, but it's do-able. On the send...yeah should have let Shaw swing.

The good: 3 Outs The bad: all three hits 94.4mph or harder The good: two had xBA of .150 The best: W

I love the Palencia choice here. Vote of confidence. Make it worthwhile.

So to clarify: players on bad teams don't need rehab stints, but regardless of who the other option is, players on good teams need rehab stints? Even if they're playing the bad teams? Yeah, I'll go ahead and just say "highly disagree" and let it go.

You said "you can see if you were returning to face the Sox or the Rockies" suggesting that it's okay to not do a rehab stint if you're facing a bad pitching staff. The Marlins have been the second worst pitching staff in baseball so far - worse than the White Sox. I don't think a hitter needs a rehab stint after 10 days, you're the one who is harping on it. Yet, by your own admission, the Marlins should be one of the exemptions.

I'm not. Red = fastball,. gold = slider, green changeup. He's yanking too many sliders and no one is chasing them. They need to be closer to the zone. Not by a ton, but a little. Whether it's over-hyper, or under-confident he's just missing on those. Less wasteful sliders will result in more chase.

The Marlins have the 2nd worst ERA in baseball.

Yeah, lots of hits. He's not getting misses on the fastballs - the Marlins hit the fastball pretty well but don't hit breaking balls well. Horton's still just over throwing the slider a bit and throwing the fastball too often as a strike. Result? Hits against a team who hits fastballs well but doesn't hit breaking balls well. Positive: his changeup is nasty today and he's really leaning on it. That's a great sign.

It took him a few starts in Triple-A to get dialed in, yes. He did this thing where his worst games he would put people in favorable counts, but then be unable to put them away,. The PA with Stowers feels like a good example of it: he gets up 0-2 but then his fastball doesnt get in on the hands, and it stays up and out - foul ball. Pitch 4 is a curve he spikes too low...he'll never get a chase. He got a good ground ball eventually, on the changeup, but he ends that with a strikeout on pitch three if he gets the 97mph in on the hands and up like, 2 more inches. Probably gets the K on the It's just tweaks. Get the curveball up or the fastball up a bit and he's got a swinging strike three. I'll give him a little defense; the changeup to Mervis was a good pitch way off the zone he yanked and that pitch he just gave up a double on wasn't a mid-mid fastball. You'd like it a little more up, but that's outter third that Pulley did what you're supposed to on.

Image courtesy of © Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Cubs' homegrown talent pipeline has been very important this year. Matt Shaw, Moisés Ballesteros, and Cade Horton have all seen big-league action, and a handful of other Iowa Cubs will likely see action, as well. The Cubs are a bit banged up, specifically in the rotation, so getting good results in Triple A will quickly move you into a position to see action in Chicago right now. Overall rating: 🥶 Not a particularly strong week. There were some good performances, but nothing that stole the show. Most of the "hot" players were "good," not "great", and there were some real stinkers—especially in the lower levels. Part of this is because the Cubs' best prospects are in Chicago; part of this is the normal grind of the year. Iowa Cubs, Triple-A (5-2) Up next: @ Columbus Clippers (Cleveland Guardians) 🔥 Jordan Wicks, SP - 5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: A nice bounce-back start for Wicks saw him re-feature the changeup heavily. Wicks has been alternating good starts and bad starts the last few, giving up 13 earned runs in his last four, but with 12 of them coming in just two of those. Here's hoping for more starts like today 🔥 Matt Shaw, 3b - 237 wRC+, 6.5 K%, 12.9 BB%, 5 HR: Hopefully, this will be the last time Shaw features on the Minor League Hot or Not segment. He's up in Chicago (and after a nice two-hit performance in his first game back, he looks more comfortable) and will hopefully stay. Shaw has shown improved leg kicks and better mechanics overall. 🥶 Owen Caissie, OF - 80 wRC+, 27.3 K%, 15.2 BB%, 1 2B: Ok, so this really isn't the kind of bad week we're used to seeing from Caissie, as the strikeouts didn't shoot through the roof. He's been hovering around this range for his last 40 plate appearances, and the hope here is that he can stick there. If he couples 27% strikeout rates with the power, he'll be knocking on the door. 🔥 Connor Noland, SP - 6 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 2 R, 2 ER: Noland isn't a star; he's not even probably all that exciting or good. But he's solid enough that he could make competent big-league starts if the Cubs need him to, and based on the injuries piling up, they might need him to. He's probably worked his way into organizational up/down depth, but that's not terrible. He gets ground balls and limits hard contact and walks. That will work. Knoxville Smokies, Double-A (3-3) 🔥 Jaxon Wiggins, SP - 4 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 ER: Okay, it's not as eye-popping or as efficient as his last start, but this isn't a bad first go a level up. And man, just an aside, it's nice having some very exciting prospects join the Smokies. It isn't a knock on the roster on the whole, but it's been hard to watch when the (very few) higher-ceiling guys struggle. 🔥 Grant Kipp, SP - 5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: Good to see Kipp get going again. With the Cubs pitching staff struggling for pitchers, Kipp and his slider could play a role at some point. Don't think he's a starter long-term, but he's got bullpen potential based on that pitch alone. 🥶 Pedro Ramirez, INF - 91 wRC+, 21.7 K%, 17.4 BB%, 1 2B: These are the kinds of weeks you worry a bit about Ramirez. The walks were good, but if he's just not hitting singles, he doesn't add a ton. He's yet to hit a home run on the season; has an ISO of .057; and it's just going to be hard for him to really be a prospect with a 103 wRC+. He needs to find 7 home runs a year. 🔥 Will Sanders, SP - 6 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER: There isn't a hotter arm in the system than this guy. He's given up one run over his last 16 innings. Over that span, he's struck out 21 hitters and walked just two. Breakout? Maybe! South Bend Cubs, High-A (1-5) Up next: vs Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Milwaukee Brewers) 🔥 Ivan Brethowr, OF - 110 wRC+, 16.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 1 2B: My boy is back! (Mostly.) Brethowr had been struggling the last little bit, but he's found the groove again, sans the power. You'd want to see him get to the pop a bit more, but limiting the strikeouts remains a good thing. 🔥 Jefferson Rojas, INF - 110 wRC+, 29.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 2 2B, 1 3B: Rojas remains relatively hot. This does represent a bit of a "cooler" run than he's been on recently, but if this is "cooled off" Rojas, it's a great sign about the kind of year he's having. He's got to be close to a promotion to Knoxville, himself. 🥶 Cristian Hernandez, INF - 17 wRC+, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%: Not a great week for Hernandez, who had gotten hot again recently. On the season, he's cooled off over the last little bit, so I was hoping his recent run would keep going. Still, he's doing enough to remain prospect-relevant. He might be two really hot weeks away from regaining that momentum. 🔥 Reggie Preciado, INF - 138 wRC+, 33.3 K%, 0 BB%, 4 2B: He's not having a great season, and he's almost assuredly not on a prospect redemption arc, but he's had a nice week and he's a name I can't entirely quit yet. Maybe this is the start of something? More likely, it's his lone appearance on this list all year. But I'm hoping! Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Low-A (2-4) Up next: Hickory Crawdads (Texas Rangers) 🥶 Ty Southisene, INF - 42 wRC+, 18.2 K%, 18.2 BB%: The approach has been strong from the fourth-round pick, but he hasn't really hit the ball well yet. We're still in his early days in Myrtle Beach, so the hope is that the approach begets results. 🥶 Nazier Mule, SP - 2 IP, 2 K, 2 BB, 6 R, 6 ER: A second straight blow-up for Mule isn't great. He had been looking really strong in his first 20 innings, giving up just 5 earned runs over his first four starts. He's given up 13 in just his last five innings. Yeesh. 🥶 JP Wheat, SP - 4 2/3 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 6 R, 6 ER: JP had looked like might get on a little roll lately. The walks were still there, but he was limiting contact and runs. Not so much this time around. The strikeouts are real, but he's going to have to rein in the walks at some point if he's going to be a viable starter. Was there someone here you think I missed? Who's weekly performance did you find particularly interesting? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

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Marlins only have one lefty in the bullpen, Cade Gibson. Gibson threw 33 pitches last night. My guess would be that the Cubs are sure Gibson won't be a factor in the game because of that and they can easily get away with it.

Yeah, I think that's part of the issue though. He's not walking hitters. What he is doing is piping his fastball down the middle. His edge % is down 4% from last year, and conversely his meatball % and zone contact are both up. He's getting killed in the heart of the zone. This is typical from "I don't know where I'm throwing it" pitchers - they compensate walks for "here's a strike!" pitches. but those "here's a strike" pitches are generally in bad spots on their own. He's giving up a lot of hits, He's given up nine barrels over his last 24 IP which is double what he gave up his first 24 IP. He's got to find the middle ground. This version is going to get hit to death.

Perhaps. But even then, they'll have to work themselves into a trusting position. I like Ben Brown, but the reality is even in the BP, his control can be an issue. Stuff is awesome, but trust will reign supreme.

Yep. We (as in me and Mitch) talked about this on the pod last night - brought up a lot of these teams and the BS and the ERA. The Cubs pen feels worse, I think because we're good, so we have leads to blow and because we don't watch other teams. That's not to say the Cubs bullpen is rock solid, but that a lot of times we overrate Cub issues; like "situational hitting" or "blown saves" but when you look at the league as a whole, we're not so far out of line most years that it's a real issue. But if all you do is watch one team 162 times and have the cursory check-in with the rest, your team issues feel bigger than they really are. Still - and this is really meatbally of me, so please, forgive me - I want a reliever that has a cool entrance, if that makes sense. Or is worthy of one. I want one of those guys.

Much like double plays, we forget that to blow games, good things need to happen first. For example, two things are usually true of a double-play: a hitter has to get on base and another has to hit the ball pretty hard at some one. Weak contact usually results in a fielders choice. It's usually good processes mixed with bad. The same is true for a blown save. You can't blow a save in the fifth inning and you can't blow a save when behind, so you have to be ahead late which is objectively a good thing. It's not that blown saves are good, but good teams blow games because...they're winning. That's not to say the Cubs' bullpen is perfect as is; I think I have a bigger concern with the playoff bullpen in close games than I do any worry about blown saves in the regular season right now, if that makes sense. Right now, going against a really good lineup, who do we trust? Keller, Thielbar, Hodge? Maybe? We need two more in the circle of trust at least and probably three. Some of that can come internally. But in terms of blown saves? We'll be fine. It's a red herring.

The moment I saw the new swing analyzer my first thought was "Man, Matt is gonna use that right away and it's going to be really cool".

Mathew Shaw.

On one hand that was a strike to Dansby. On the other, umpires like that need to get a grip.

Injuries are bad. But it also explains why he's been so horrible the last two goes.

Sometimes they do. But they also have systems like the Trajekt system which can help create game-like hitting situations available. Short IL trips dont need an Iowa stint.

Me: Ian Happ's cohost is Dakota Mekkes Like...former 9th or 10th round pick out of Michigan State? That guy? Also me: You horsefeathers dork you shouldn't know that so quickly. Get a life.