Jason Ross

I do believe his argument is that while Hoyer was the GM, the Cubs baseball structure does not place the GM as the "leader" of the baseball side of things. It would be like claiming Carter Hawkins lead the Cubs to the playoffs in 2025 if that happens. Baseball terminology has changed a lot over the last decade. The VP has replaced the GM and the GM has replaced the Assistant-GM. (Ultimately, I think Jed was certainly useful and apart of those teams, but the buck stopped at Epstein then, much like the buck stops with Jed now and not Carter Hawkins).

The fundamental misunderstanding is claiming the Cubs are 1/3rd though the season and we cannot evaluate Jed Hoyer's 2025 performance. I think we can easily do just that and MLB games are not the schedule/timeline in which Hoyer's job should be evaluated within. I'm going to go ahead and disagree, however, with the general post as well. That isn't to say Jed Hoyer is perfect (I'll get to complaints), but generally speaking, he's been a pretty fine VP of Baseball Ops and showing signs of being pretty good. He was hired into a situation in which ownership essentially forced a rebuild. Hoyer was the architect of this MiLB system, acquiring multiple-indutry-top-50 prospects (eventually) in those trades. He's hired Kantrovitz who has gone on to draft many other quality prospects, including multiple (specifically Horton and Wiggins) fans threw fits over at the draft time, both have been excellent to-date (though more time is needed to see the overall development and outcome, it's not a win...but it's trending that way). We have seen fans (and I'll admit, I was in this group initially) complain about signing Swanson over the other available SS and all that has been has been...an absolute steal to date. They've made plenty of savvy signings like Imanaga, Boyd, Kelly, Suzuki and others. They've begun to develop pitching and players not-drafted in the first-round, common complaints of the past, I recognize that the playoffs have not happened yet, and I understand that the end goal is winning baseball games and making the playoffs. Hoyer has been imperfect. They've relied on some sketchy early-season bullpens that may have cost them games they would eventually need, moves such as Mancni, Hosmer, and Barnhart were probably bad moves from the get-go. The Kimbrel trade didn't really work out at all (for anyone). There has been some suggestion that the Cubs tried to do Kimbrel a solid and keep him in Chicago, but even beyond that, it didnt work out. And maybe at times he's been too cautious, but at the same time, he went out and made a big move for Tucker, which is anything but cautious - so I think he's shown that isn't always the case. It seems like Hoyer may be a bit worried about long-term contracts as well. We can find fault, this isn't a Hoyer high-five-fest, here, and I'm willing to be a fair observer. I do think there's a line where ownership hampers his job, but I've tried to keep complaints to Hoyer and Hoyer alone here. But "awful job"? C'mon, man. The Cubs have 83 wins in back-to-back years. Underwhelming to a degree? Maybe! I still think with the way the organization was coming out of July 2021 that the expectation that the Cubs went from, essentially, "trading most of their starting line up away" to "MLB playoff team" in 18-months seems pretty rushed as an expectation, but if 83 wins over the last two years is "awful" we have different distinctions of what "awful" is. For me, awful is the Los Angeles Angels, The Cubs were average. And this year, the Cubs are pretty-damn-good. They're also in a prime situation to be good for a while, though ownership will have to play their part, too, but that's in no small-part due to Jed Hoyer. Hoyer is an imperfect and admittedly, impersonal, VP of Baseball Ops. He does not give you the warm fuzzies, he doesn't seem exciting, and it took four years for him to put a roster out that was truly good. I don't necessarily fault him entirely for that, however, with 2024 being the first "miss" I'll actually credit him for (as stated, 18-months after having to deal Darvish, Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and on the precipice of losing Contreras, I don't think it's fair to suggest a playoff-or-bust mentality). But even if you want to blame him for 2023, than his "misses" were 83 win teams and his "hit" is the 2025 roster so far (tied for the highest win% in the NL and 2nd in MLB), which has been one of the best in baseball. We'll see what the deadline brings, but he's ben aggressive two years running in that regards, I'd expect more additions. So despite him being imperfect and impersonal, he's probably pretty good at his job all things considered. He doesn't appear to be an Andrew Friedman but there aren't many of them. If he can be the 7th-12th (or so) best VP of Baseball, the Cubs will be in fine hands. The reality is that once you get past the very best, and ignore the very worst, the middle-ground of Baseball Ops is pretty fluid, and pretty similar. With how analytical teams are, and how much data is run through things, most teams avoid disasters pretty well now a days. The difference between Hoyer and most other VP's is probably far less than people expect.

I would say that is a fundamental misunderstanding of Jed Hoyer's job, though. Its probably fair to say 75% of whay he does happens between November and OD, with the vast majority of other duties happening in July. We are 2 months in and evaluating what Hoyer is responsible for; MLB roster, org depth, hiring...its pretty easy. For what he is directly responsible for, hes far past the "one-third" pole for the season in terms of job duties. This is a good roster, its pretty undebateable at this stage that its a good roster. Its a lineup that is incredibly strong, the BP is better than we probably gave it credit for and the SP depth is being tested. Prospects acquired directly by Hoyer over the years are contributing positively to it. In terms of hiring, the Cubs have done a solid job surrounding the org with talented minds and the offseason acquisitions of Tucker, Boyd, and most others are variying shades of good-to-great. We can certainly state that Hoyer probably left the team a player short in the offseason, a fair and legitimate criticism, but the deadline will give him a good chance to rectify that. I realize the SP is certainly a bit of a concern as is, but every team has a speed bump and a weakness, even the almighty Dodgers. Its not a uniquely Cubs or Hoyer issue. The deadline still has to happen and a poor deadline where the Cubs punt and refuse to make a few additions would certainly be bad, but thats probably the last bit of work Hoyer is capable of doing. That and the draft. We dont need another 4 months to determine the rest. I know people want to put it as "playoffs or bust" but we can evaluate that pretty easily now. The Cubs are certainly on that trajectory. What would realistically stop it now? Probably a combination of the worst kinds of injuries to your best players, unforseen downturn in playing quality for a very extended time, and a lack of action in July. Only one of those three are really a Jed thing at this stage. That isnt trying to get cocky and coast the rest of the year, just that the things that can derail the year are largely things Hoyer probably isnt responsible for at this stage. If Tucker and PCA both tear their ACL in a collision Tuesday, Im not sure there's a realistic fix for that, as an example. Is that a "poor Job Jed?". Probably not. Nor is that something you can plan for. Losing two-top-10 fWAR hitters is not something one can realistically have a backup plan for. Thats an extreme example, but Im just trying to highlight that many things between now and October are beyond what a VP of Ops can do, plan for, etc and most of what we can grade or will grade him on is done and dusted.

There aren't many in the NL I'd switch organizationally or what the Cubs have top-to-bottom right now. There's plenty of things to do; resigning Kyle Tucker, trading for some arms, and extending PCA feel high on the priority list between now and November (with different priorities at different times). He's done a great job of surrounding himself with smart people; Dan Kantrovitz, Craig Breslow, Tyler Zombro, Craig Counsel, Carter Hawkins, just to name a few. The MiLB system is great. They've drafted well. I agree, Hoyer's done a pretty good job this year! Sure, I wish the SP was better right now, but most teams have some "issue". The Dodgers have a SP issue themselves; Roki has been horrible, Snell has been banged up, and they're on multiple BP games. The Phillies still cannot field a baseball, There are tons of examples. Some people do need to give some flowers when need be. We're well past anything being bad on Jed. The biggest obstacles Jed can deal with moving forward are how he handles the deadline. It would seem today that the team Jed built is capable of being a playoff team; they might not get there for many factors, but I don't think a lot of them would really be on Jed. Like if Tucker goes down with a torn ACL, not really anything you can do to prep or backup plan that, you know?

I think Caissie and Alcantara both offer far more trade value than you're giving them credit for. Especially someone like Alcantara. The I-Cub data hasn't been great overall this year, but he's a 6"6 capable CF'er. Long is fun, but there's a reason many had Kevin as a top-50 prospect in baseball headed into the year. He's been much better in May, posting a 112 wRC+ and may be in the process of lowering his strike outs (down to 22% over his last 33 PA's). He's struggled at the start of the year a few times in his career, so this isn't entirely out of character for him. Like John Long and all, really like Wiggins' progress, but Kev's got em' in trade value, I'm pretty sure. Really just need one team to think he's a star. Rojas might be more on par, but the other two? Alcantara has 'em beat.

I would disagree with Bertz here - I think I'd vault him to near the top of my list as "likely". There's some utility he could have on the bench for Turner, or in the case of a Busch injury, but I also think he's "found money" here, and if the Cubs really like Caissie/Alcantara/Ballesteros Long could be a really strong trade chip here and it might mean they can keep someone they've liked more/longer. The Cubs seem like they're "in" this year. I expect an active deadline and active mean many of our top players are more likely to go than many think they are.

Since his really-bad-no-good-bummer-of-an-extra-innings-appearance Pressley has a 17.8 K%, 10 BB%, a 0.00 ERA and a 2.94 FIP.

Not a 3b. 😉

Im not sure there's a ton of juice to squeeze with LA. Hes not a super flat bat plane with a 12 degree launch angle. Obviously a few more degrees to the like 15 range seem do-able but its probably not going to be a revolution for Long either. I do think hes going to stick as a sub 25 HR hitter. Not the end of the world, though.

I've stumped for Hall but Pierce is another "Cub profile" guy I think. Strong defensively, gets praise for bat to ball skills. A riser. Read a few times about his success against the best pitching he's faced on the year (which I think is notable - there's no Cape for these kids, but finding how the Cubs might value a prep hitter in that vein, I think this could be a thing).

Fully. The Cubs are seemingly comfortable with a power-over-contact profile, but not within the top-rounds. When the Cubs draft hitters (and hell, even when they traded for prospects) they valued contact based approaches above others more times than naught. They get more loose with it in the mid-rounds (Cruz, Rosario, Brethowr) and the 11th round prep-selection. It's why I'd have someone like Steele Hall or Aloy (who is more in the 'aggressive' mold but the Cubs don't shy away from a free-swinger as long as bat-to-ball remains) as more likely.

Going to be wild when the White Sox and Rockies back to back have historically bad years and neither team gets the 1-1 pick in the draft (the Rockies have picked top-10 two years running, like the White Sox had previously).

I think you're over concerned on the the EV with Shaw. This is kind of what his profile looks like. He hits a lot of baseballs. and what that does is tend to deflate the EV. He's going to trade weak contact for strikeouts. It'll help him run a high BABIP with the speed as well. There's a pretty strong correlation between whiff% and low EV, hard hit% and the like. Shaw isn't probably in the "Nico Hoerner HR anemic" category, but he's someone who's going to make enough contact that this will probably be a feature, not a bug. So far he's got a .307 xwOBA and a .314 woBA, so I don't think there's a lot to worry about. His overall BABIP is .333 on the year - that's really doable for Shaw. Like, I don't think he's going to run a .481 BABIP like he has since he's returned. But that's also what a hot-streak looks like. He's running a 173 wRC+ over that time, and I don't think he's 73% better than league average either. But he also has five doubles, lots of 100mph contact...so it's not an accident. He ran lower EV in Triple-A as well. I think it's just who he is; he'll have a deceptively low EV and a higher BABIP. But it's kind of baked in to the profile. Most importantly thanks for listening, man! Sincerely. I'm a bit humbled people want to spend an hour listening to me. My students are forced.

If we aren't griping about winning games, and instead griping about *how many runs we are winning by*, you know it's a fun year.

Long might. Wiggins will. To clarify; Long is a 1b/DH who doesn't have eye popping power. Industry list makers will hesitate to add a player like that some times. Some will point to his statcast data and the like, which is awesome! But some will see a 15HR 1b. Wiggins is a 2nd round pick who hits 100MPH. Hes a lot easier to sell.

Yeah, he's a shooting star right now. It's not "if Wiggins lands on a top-100 list" but realistically "how aggressive do some people want to be?"

There will be some pitchers who are capable of being a "TORP" who will be available. Part of the issue here is that fans generally conflate, like, an "Ace" (you know, one of the 6-8 dudes who throw a baseball better than anyone else) and like a guy who's a "TORP". I expect more of those will be available than we suspect. There will be a few teams who probably throw in the towel before others to jump on the value, and others will fall out of things between now and then.

Figuring out who is available and who isn't available right now is a fool's game. One week of good results or bad results can swing things wildly. Most people didn't have Logan O'Hoppe as on the radar and the Cubs made a real push there. I didn't have "acquire Parades" necessarily on the bingo-card last year and it happened. As of today, I expect the Cubs will be involved in all of the best names who will be available and likely a few names we don't know are actually available. I'm not sure who that will be. But I believe they will be aggressive regardless.

There's a chance, but like Assad, neither have logged an inning yet. It's hard to know what we can get out of them or what level they'll be at talent wise as they build back into game shape.

I see no reason to believe the team wouldn't be shopping for a very good arm. They might be rentals, but they have both need and capital to acquire any player they want. They have already shown a willingness to acquire expiring contracts (Tucker).

Marquez is really bad. He's had some nice results but the processes behind those results are not encouraging. His K%, using all SP's with at least 50 IP, is the second lowest in baseball and he's running an xFIP of 4.86. The Cubs should not want him anywhere near this rotation.

Yep. The change is good. The cut-fastball is really good. The slider is really good. Hes got three plus pitches. Shore up the command on them a bit and he's going to be very good.

The Rockies suck, but this is also the best version of Cade Horton tonight. A little unlucky to give up a run last inning but the placement on the slider/fastball is pretty good tonight.