Jason Ross

Its likely multiple prospects you dont want to trade, plus more. Like Ballesteros/Caissie/Alcantara tier stuff plus others. Essentially, if you aren't kind of throwing up typing it out, if it doesnt make you feel like "Is this too much?" Then it probably isnt realistic. I despise the guessing game of what it might take so this as deep as Ill go. But thats how Id explain it. It should make you feel real pain if youre going to suggest it.

The Nationals currently have 2 position players above .3 fWAR on the year. Crews has been really terrible so far, and he can still be good, but outside of him, most of their team is not very good. Robert Hassell hasn't been a very good prosect for the last few years, Tena has never been highly thought of. Nathaniel Lowe is 29 and has been awful this year (though he's been pretty good in the past, but only pretty good). Keibert Ruiz has been one of the worst MLB players over the last three years, accruing negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons for -1.2 fWAR and the 22nd worst in all of baseball over that span. Pitching wise, they're basically Gore, Mitchell Parker and his 5+ ERA and two 33-year olds in Finnegan and Williams. It's also not like they've got a banging good MiLB system, as they came into the season ranked 13th by Pipeline, the bottom 5 in Fangraphs $value, and 14th by BA. What it means is that there isn't a *ton* of help coming. I just don't think they're particularly close right now and while I don't think the Nationals have "Trade Gore" circled on their plans, the organization is probably missing a lot of supplemental pieces to Wood/Abrams/Gore that an infusion of multiple good prospects could represent a better chance for squeezing value into the team over an arm that's relatively volatile. Wouldn't be cheap in any sense, but there probably isn't another team that can offer as many "near MLB minor leaguers" as the Cubs can. The Cubs can likely pry players like Gore away from teams like the Nationals if they so want. Considering they made an aggressive move for Parades last year and then tried to pry Logan O'Hoppe away from the Angels (who you could kind of put in a similar situation to Gore and the Nationals), it's why I said I think the pitcher the Cubs end up acquiring this summer will not be among those that populate a Jim Bowden "this is who's available" The Athletic article. Gore fits that mold, but is just one of likely a few players. Who those other players are is kind of hard to speculate about, as I certainly didn't have either the Parades trade or the O'Hoppe attempt on my radar last year.

I don't think Gore is untouchable. The reality of pitching is that it's volatile, and Gore's currently having a career year as of now. I think he's really good! But the Nationals will have to ask themselves how likely they think they are to turn into a playoff team next year, or the year after, and if that would be impossible with a Gore trade. Right now, they have Wood and Abrams who look like long term pieces. They hope Crews figures it out. But beyond that, they're a bit murky. How well the Nationals feel about Cubs prospects is likely the kicker. But I don't think he's entirely off the table. The Cubs have the prospect capital to essentially "can opener" a team into trading a player they weren't fully expecting. In fact, if I were guessing today and looking how they played the TDL last year, I kind of think the player they get for the rotation will *not* be among the obvious trade candidates. I'm not sure who that will or is, but I do think it'll be a bit unexpected as of today.

Probably also worth adding in the injury derailing things a bit for him. I expect there will be a week (when, who knows?) where he really wakes up and hits like four home runs. He tends to do that; really carry the offense for a stretch or two.

Yeah done a little learning on the rule! I knew the "runner scores with less than 2 outs it counts" thing but didn't know the intricacies of playing the entire "would he have scored" thing. I handle all scoring through an app, so the intricacies of scoring are beyond my normal scope. Learning is cool!

No. I mean, I didnt want to assume any outcome based on Busch's play. Its ifs and buts. But one of those runs that inning was always going to be earned. Even on the error. The base runner surrendered by Horton pre-error would have scored with one out. It would have still been charged.

I didnt want to assume an outcome afterwards.

Wiggins with a pretty solid but un-eye-popping effort 6.1 4K 1 BB 2 ER

My boy.

2b away.

A few, specifically early. Hasn't been a bad game. Busch's play gets called an error or he makes it and hes through 5 with 2 ER bare minimum. Its not dominant. But its MLB caliber.

A few hits early on mediocre fastball placement. Busch booted a ball at 1b that was called a "hit" (I thought it was an error) which contributed indirectly to two runs. Change looks really sharp. Slider has bit. Fastball placement is improving as the game moved along.

I've got him between 15-20 and maybe a season around 25. Hes capable of going 107mph the other way. Thats real power. Teams will eventually come in on him more where he will be able to hit more HRs.

Also, loved that inning for Cade. That's PA against CJ was perfect fastball placement. Three pitches where he needs it against a LHH. More of that. Very good.

Yeah, the Nico-trade thing was *always* a narrow landing strip. I think there were possibilities out there, but they were very few and very specific. All players, by nature, ate less likely to be traded than *to be* traded but where the Cubs were with Nico was even narrower Glad they kept him.

I mentioned this on the pod today, but 2025 Hoerner is essentially what the White Sox hoped they had drafted (and the Cubs had hoped when they traded for) Nick Madrigal. Zero home runs. Low strikeouts. Low walks. Lots of hits. Strangely enough, both were Pac-10 players and both in the same draft.

I know. Was attempting to answer your question. Hes not lost power. The baseball has lost juice.

His EV is above his career average and he's posting a career high LA. As well, his wRC+ is one point away from his career high. Power league wide is down. Its largely presumed to once again be the baseball. I would guess thats the answer. Nico has been very good.

Just has to learn to get that cut-fastball in on lefties. The development of the changeup is awesome and the slider had been sharp.

Even beyond that, the Dodgers just have not really developed players well recently. Players like Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Roki Sasaki have all kind of bombed within the Dodgers org. Roki is too early to call a bust, but they certainly haven't solved the puzzle yet there, either.

On the last part, I also think it's important to remember that this is great developmental time for Cade Horton. I had written prior to his last start a few things I'd like to see Horton work on and the Cubs will have to balance his ability to learn, develop and pitch against MLB hitters as well as when they decide to ramp him down/pump-the-brakes. What probably wouldn't help is that right as he's working on making those changes, getting familiar and confident with the changeup, would be to full-stop IL him until July, have him re-ramp up and build stamina, lose a full month of pitching against MLB hitters and then throw him back to the wolves. I'm not sure when they should pump those brakes...but it's also why I write here and I don't work for the Cubs.

Irish had good overall numbers on the Cape but struggled heavily with swing and miss. I would be surprised if he fit the Cubs early-draft-mold. They will go with aggressive hitters at the top, but ones who show bat-to-ball skills (think Matt Shaw). Kilen was not impressive in the Cape, though he did more-or-less really break out this year, so maybe they'd forgive him. Aloy and Summerhill feel more "Cubs profile" to me. But reading tea-leaves.

Love to hear the positive stuff on Pierce. Hall seemed to fit a lot of their profile as well, interesting to hear the disconnect between scouting and brass, though.

The Cubs playoff rotation is four deep, but as of today neither Horton nor Brown should be in it. Brown flashes, but has control/command issues and has a tendency to give up hard contact, and a lot of it. Horton also has some small command/control things. Both are also on borrowed time with innings. The Cubs should also not want to see either Rea or Assad start. The Cubs need an actual, good, SP. This is almost undebatable at this stage. The Cubs SP is at least one arm short, and possibly more moving forward because it's likely someone else picks up a knock or two. This is a rotation screaming for an update, and a team who has prospects to burn to make it happen. They should not, for any reason, be content. I say this as someone who really likes Horton and thinks Brown has some strong flashes. I wouldn't trust either of them against a playoff team as the starter right now. Prospects such as Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara, and the like are depreciating values. First, all are currently on the 40-man, and realistically, all are blocked as of today. Option years are a thing, too. Kevin Alcantara is down to one option year remaining (next year). Players eventually have to be on the MLB roster or be lost. And the reality is that while it's cool to have someone like Alcantara as a backup, if the Cubs are going to play PCA almost every day and he's this good, you can find someone else to sit on the bench behind Pete while Kevin is used to shore up another need. Many of these prospects, as well, are going to fail in some degree. They all aren't hitting their ceiling. So using them in a trade is away to mitigate his. They should probably be ready to pick their favorites in some fashion. The Cubs are getting to a point where they have too much. If they plan on extending Tucker, Caissie will be in a similar boat, likely. If the Cubs like Ballesteros more than Long, he could be in a similar boat. James Triantos could be in a similar boat, though I've got his ceiling more as a utility/supersub than a starting talent as is Franklin, so neither *have* to go. Hoarding prospects loses their value. The goal is to win baseball games at the MLB level, not have the best prospect list. They should not trade 'em all. But they probably need to pick some similar-ish prospects and make some moves. I'm not advocating throwing them away, but at some point, and we're probably there, the Cubs should be willing to move prospects to better themselves in a more tangible way. Prospects are assets, and assets can be used in many ways. A smart team with a strong system uses some to supplement their roster by calling them up, and uses others to acquire known talent.

Regardless, even the best case scenario leaves the Chicago Cubs in a position in the rotation where two of their current five arms will need their innings ramped down at some stage. Neither Horton nor Brown are likely to be able to go 5+ every fifth time between today and October in a way that manages their workload from where it was last year to this year without breaks, rest, etc. Likely one, or both, will be members of the BP for a decent chunk of time. What that means is even with Imanaga's return, the Cubs will be at least one SP short for a playoff rotation (as Assad is likely not good enough for it) and upgrading over Colin Rea/Javier Assad is possible. Conversely, the Cubs are getting to a point where they kind of have too many prospects. They're going to have to trade for at least one SP and they can' hoard every prospect, even those desirable, forever. They'll really have to move someone and likely a few someones. A long term outlook can remain, you don't have to trade all seven or eight significant prospects, but they probably need to pick a handful, and be willing to move others. Even really good ones.