Jason Ross

It is the dumbest of all of the fields. What a stupid, dumb, baseball field.

The Crawford Boxes are the dumbest. What a dumb baseball field.

I do not like that man named Cam I do not like him, Sam I am. I do not like him with a hat. I do not like it when he swings the bat.

Good job getting out of it.

Player A (first 461 PAs at age 21): 116 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 8 BB%, .276/.342/.445 Player B (first 429 PAs at age 22): 82 wRC+, 24.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, .228/.282/.370 Two recent prospect callups in the last few seasons. Both highly regarded. Same draft class. One of these players has been worth -.5 fWAR (with a sparkling 65 wRC to boot since their debut) over their career. The other has been significantly better. It's not the player you think it is based on their entrance to the league. A few years back their trade value would have been very different, with Player A being one of the most coveted young players in baseball and potential to have been the most coveted. Today, you could argue no position player has more trade value than Player B. (Just to help you make your point)

The Cubs have scored the 9th most runs (14th most PA's) and have the 7th best wRC+ against LHP. They also have the 23rd best BABIP against LHP despite being 8th in line drive and lowest in ground ball rate. They have the 5th best HR/FB% against LHP. It's likely they've been a little unlucky. Sure, they could use an upgrade over Turner. It's an upgradable spot, more than likely, against LHP. However the struggles against LHP are vastly overstated.

The Cubs have scored the 2nd most runs and have the 3rd best wRC+ in baseball. It would be cool to make another really impactful offensive trade, but their offense is about as good as you can ask for. Anything *could* cost them a deep run in the playoffs, but their offense is their best aspect as a team.

He literally had two of the seven hardest hit balls of the entire game on Thursday. Three were xBA over .490. He had one hit. His 107mph lineout was the hardest hit ball he's had all year! Sometimes you get a little lucky. Sometimes you get a little unlucky. Any of the luck he got last night was paid for on Thursday.. I cannot stress enough, this is what rookies do. The best prospect in baseball has a 60 wRC+ in his first 60 PA's. We gotta stop making every PA and every game some referendum.

Kyle Tucker is represented by Excel Sports. Not Scott Boras.

He had three balls in play with a .490 xBA or higher. Only one hit. There's improvement. Tonight's first PA wasn't great but yesterday was quite good regardless of result.

He's been less good than the numbers look. His wRC+ against RHP is under 100, and his LHP wRC+ is carrying him. He's hit four home runs against LHP in just 41 PA's where as he has one HR against RHP. He's hit just two home runs over his last two months; a two home run game in Sacramento against JP Sears; one of the worst LHP starts in baseball thus far. Two of his other home runs came in a game on the 18th of April. One of those two was a HR only because of the Crawford boxes (it was a home run in only 1/30 ballparks). They were both off of Kyle Hart, a replacement level pitcher who has since been sent to Triple-A (where h's been terrible at). That isn't to entirely diminish his season, those are real outcomes, you can't simply ignore them and good hitters beat up on bad pitching...but I think the wRC+ and the total line makes him seem like he's been really good, that he's been 15% better than league average. A dive into the numbers suggest that he's probably been less good then that most nights.

I will be very disappointed both in the Cubs and Hoyer if the "sweet spot" on Lugo was anywhere near Kevin Alcantara to begin with, regardless of other pieces. Alcantara is showing some red flags certainly, but is three months removed from being a pretty universal-top-75 type. I'm inclined to believe that there's some help and potential fixing that could happen as it pertains to his issues on non-fastballs. There's enough age there that I don't think we're at a nuclear option yet. Or at least, hope. On the flip side, Lugo's top-line looks good, but the processes and under-the-hood stuff are horrible. He's taken major steps back on chase, whiff, and contact quality against from where he was in 2024. Couple in the age and the potential to be stuck with Lugo next year if the processes eventually match the top-line (as in, he regresses to those processes) the Cubs should be able to find a far cheaper option who won't come with the potential for a 2026 grenade than to have to trade a down-year Alcantara. He did succeed in 2023 with similarly wonky Statcast data, but it's hard to think that it's very repeatable. Still the xData liked him more then, too. If he was coming from an organization who hasn't had success recently in pitching, I'd maybe buy that you could find some fix/help, but considering the progress of pitchers like Ragans and Bubic, it isn't like the Royals are currently an org who's incapable of squeezing some value out of starters like maybe we would have viewed them four years ago. Last year Martin Perez, at age 33 went for an 18 year old lottery ticket. Perez was not as good on the top-line, but his processes painted a similar picture. Lugo's got history to where you can argue his value is more because of it, but I cannot see the massive leap-and-bound that it would take to get to Alcantara.

Palencia vs Willson will be fun the rest of the year.

Good double play potential here with Saggese

I don't remember many pickoffs, but Lester picking that prick off of 1b was such a memorable moment.

Wow, great sequence to Nolan there by Daniel.

They did. But they also worked around some weird Jon Lester stuff there with David Ross. I think the Cubs would have preferred not to have 3 C's, one of whom was only there to play when one pitcher threw. But it's the price you pay for Jon Lester. Reese McGuire doesn't have the same caveat and would, probably, just sit there. He's had a cool little run, but it's probably in the best interest of the Cubs to let it be that; a cool little unexpected run.

Matt Shaw on the day: 83mph single xBA of .740 107mph lineout xBA of .490 28mph popout xBA of .070 101 lineout xBA of .490 That's about as good of a 1-4 as you'll see. He deserved a bit more.

Oh, fully agree on the McGuire thing. 49 PA's ago he was on an MiLB deal. If the Cubs rolled into the year with him and either Kelly or Amaya as the C duo, people would have thrown a fit. He's still Reese McGuire

Correct. I think we all have to accept that Turner probably isn't going anywhere anytime soon. I suspect, even if he can't really ever start hitting, he's going to be kept in the 26th-man-vibes role. The team seems to enjoy his contributions in the clubhouse. And my most meathead opinion (and understand I say this as a guy who's been heavy into analytics for two decades now) is that there are things like clubhouse stuff, that over the course of 162 games, can matter. We don't have a data point for it, but the year is a grind and having someone who can keep guys mentally there has value.

He's hit well, but I'm not sure what purpose he serves. Amaya and Kelly have played more than well enough to be the 1a/1b situation, so they don't need a 3rd catcher. Next, none are capable of playing another position. Kelly is the only one of the three who's played any other defensive position, and it was 1 inning of 3b in 2019. It would be one thing if any of the three had extensive 1b history; but they don't. I know the Cubs barely use their 26th man right now, but at least Jon Berti offers utility if you need it. We'll see. I guess he could take the Berti-vibes role for a bit, but he'd basically never play. It'd be simply out of emergency if another C went down.

Matt Shaw, in around 240 PA's is rocking a wRC+ over 140 in Triple-A. I'm sorry, but this sentiment that he's going to work through these things in Iowa is pretty wrong. He's dominated the level. I cannot explain to people enough that the gap between Double-A and Triple-A has shrunk massively and the gap between Triple-A and MLB has grown greatly. For a really good example of this, look at how the Cubs have handled Cade Horton and how the Reds have handled Chase Burns. The best arms are essentially skipping the level after a few good starts. What this means is that going to Iowa to face the Kenta Maeda's of the world isn't going to help a rookie make the jump, especially when they've dominated the level. Rookies are not getting exposed to the high level arms in Triple-A they were a few years ago - MLB teams have brought those guys up to not waste bullets before the TJS they will (almost) inevitably have. I understand people would like a better option at 3b right now (Shaw's had a nice game offensively today, he's hit the 2nd hardest ball of the day, and has a single already) but this idea that sending him to Iowa is going to be the fix, isn't it. The approach needs to be challenged at the MLB level. This is what rookies do, I cannot stress this enough. 3-4 months of struggle is how rookies get through it right now. There might come a point where the Cubs will have to replace Shaw this year. But when he comes back up, expect more of this. More Iowa isn't the answer to fixing this. It's more MLB.

"Hey look what I found". Damnit.

I would guess there will be some limitations. He missed a handful of weeks and his longest outing during his rehab was 4 innings and 17 hitters faced. My expectation is that he's going to be taken out after 5 innings or so unless he's cruising.

There's little reason for the Pirates to realistically consider trading him. I don't think there is any chance he's moved.