Anatomy of an At-Bat: Cade Horton Cuts Down CJ Abrams

Not every important plate appearance of the year comes in a critical moment, but it doesn't mean that something significant can't still occur. One of these moments happened during Tuesday's game against the Washington Nationals for Cubs' rookie starter Cade Horton. And even if it didn't have game-changing implications in the moment, it's the kind of at-bat that can be a glimpse into the future. 

To paint the picture of the at-bat, the game between the Cubs and the Nationals is currently 7-3 in favor of Chicago as we enter into the bottom of the fifth inning. The North Siders have just tallied four runs in the top-half of the frame and the Nationals find themselves behind in the game. For the Cubs, and for Cade Horton, this is a great time for the rookie to close the door on the Nationals.

The inning starts with two quick outs, as Nationals' third baseman Jose Tena (hitting eighth) is caught watching strike three for the first out of the inning, and then ninth-hitter Daylen Lile grounds out, bringing up leadoff hitter CJ Abrams. On the day, Abrams already has a single off of Horton, and hitting in front of James Wood, this could quickly snowball if the rookie isn't able to end the inning.

CJ Abrams is a tough out for almost anyone nowadays, as he's currently in the middle of a real breakout season. The 24-year-old shortstop is beginning to live up to his top-prospect billing, sporting a wRC+ of 132 as he entered the game. His wRC+ on the season was fifth for all shortstops league-wide. Abrams is a pretty good hitter against fastballs, sporting a .360 wOBA on the pitch on the season. He's significantly decreased his ground ball rate this year, This will be a challenging plate appearance for Horton (even up four runs) and should not be taken lightly. 

Before breaking down the at-bat in question, I'd like to go back and make mention of something I've spoken about Horton in the past. In an article I wrote previously,, one of the things I mentioned was that Horton needs to learn to use his fastball like Justin Steele does; specifically, jamming it inside on opposite-handed hitters. This remains a work in progress, but is something important to keep in the back of our minds' in looking at how this specific event plays out. 

As the shortstop strides to the plate and takes his place in the box, Horton coils himself upon the rubber ready to go; he likes to work fast. Horton goes directly to the fastball against Abrams, which shouldn't be surprising — he uses the pitch nearly 50% of the time. The pitch isn't a bad offering, as it registered 96mph on the gun and induced a foul ball. It's far enough on the shadows that it's unlikely that Abrams kills the pitch, but it's probably not the ideal placement, as if he misses by a little, it would run towards the heart of the plate. Regardless of some nitpicks, the result is fine: 0-1. 

Now with count-leverage on his side, Horton goes right back to the well as the next call is once again heater. Despite Abrams being a great hitter against the fastball, Horton and Carson Kelly feel confident going back at the lanky youngster once again with the pitch. Horton gets nearly perfect placement this time, hitting 96mph on the radar while getting the ball just at the top of the zone and on the inner-third. There's nothing a hitter can do against this pitch if they swing, and if they don't, it's likely a called strike. This pitch gets the exact thing the fireballer was looking for, a swing and miss: 0-2.

I love this pitch for a lot of reasons. First, Horton was able to use his fastball to get up in the zone a bit more than he's done throughout his time with the Cubs so far. Far too often, Horton has caught the upper-third of the zone without elevating the pitch high enough to generate more whiff. Not this time. Secondly, he used his glove-side-run, or in other words, his cut, in his favor, allowing the pitch to eat up Abrams inside. This is a dangerous hitter, and Horton has him down 0-2 using just fastballs. 

Now way up in the count, Cade Horton can do almost whatever he wants, so what will he do? Will he go to his bread-and-butter slider down and inside? Maybe he'll use it on the backdoor instead, hitting it low and away? Maybe he'll conclude that sliders don't typically do well against opposite handed-hitters and go with his burgeoning changeup? Horton has already featured the changeup quite often today against the left-handed-heavy lineup in front of him.

No, the answer appears to be none-of-the-above, as the call seems to be made by fictitious manager of Cleveland from the movie Major League.  "Forget about the slider, Cade, throw the heater." If you're familiar with the source, you can almost hear Lou grit it out through his teeth through the broadcast.

Horton, after going fastball-fastball, decides that he's not done with the pitch just yet and dials up a third straight "number one". And while I waxed poetic about the pitch prior, this might be my favorite pitch of the night for the rookie. Horton uncorks a third straight 96mph fastball, but this time he buries it in, and right on the hands of the Nationals' hitter. This is exactly where veteran catcher Carson Kelly wanted it, too, as you can see from the set up.

It'd be really fun if this at-bat ended up in a rousing, hype-inducing strike out, the rookie pitcher beating his chest Kenny Power-style as he walked off the mound, but alas, it doesn't. Instead the result of the pitch was an 83 mph ground ball that had an expected batting average of just .110. It's an at-bat that will likely be forgotten in the grand scheme of things, but this at-bat is bigger then the result and it's bigger than the game... it's progress. Horton used what makes his fastball special and he got a very good hitter to hit a harmless groundball at Michael Busch.

To highlight this a little more, let me take you back to the third pitch of the entire game. Leadoff hitter, and antagonist of this article, CJ Abrams was up against Horton in this scenario as well. The count was even at one ball and one strike. Horton has gone fastball-fastball already. just like the at-bat he'll have later in the game in the bottom of the fifth. Abrams has already fouled off a fastball that was a little off the plate and up on the first pitch (sound familiar?) but Horton missed with a waste-pitch on 0-1, setting up this specific juncture. Once again, Horton goes back to the fastball, but instead of getting it in on the hands, or getting it on the inner-third-at-all, he leaves it up and over the middle of the plate, and the left-hander smacks a single up the middle. A mistake pitch that ended up with a hit. Eventually, the Nationals leadoff hitter would come around and score the first run of the game after reaching, something that would thankfully not spell defeat for the Cubs.

So, sure, the fifth inning battle against Abrams probably won't go down in Cub lore with, say, Ben Zobrist's double in the World Series, but not every interaction has game-changing importance in that way. However, significance comes in many forms, and the rookie starting pitcher showed significant learning by getting Abrams to ground out weakly on a pitch inside on the hands, instead of falling in the same trap he did in the first. He found a better way forward against a dangerous hitter and the results were much better, 

I doubt it means that he'll be perfect moving forward, and we should continue to expect missteps and mistakes, hanging sliders that stay up just a little too long and fastballs that get just a little too much of the heart of the plate. After all, Horton is an imperfect rookie pitcher. But the more Horton can make these pitches to left-handed-hitters like CJ Abrams, the closer that the best version of Cade Horton we get. And if the Cubs can get the best version of Cade Horton through these baby steps, then that could be just as important as any specific moment of the Cubs' season. 

What'd you think of Cade Horton's last start? Do you think he's on the correct path? Are you seeing the progress? Let us know in the comment section below!