Outshined_One

He's getting his strikeouts up, which was a problem for him in previous starts in AA. I have faith he'll adjust. He might be well-served with starting in AA again next season.

He got it off in plenty of time, too. Now if only he could hit...

I'm not the only one who finds the grey pants/grey tops to be a weird look, am I?

:( He was doing so well!

I'll get to the fun stuff in a bit. I'll address a quick point, then come back to this topic later to address what was discussed in this thread. Moore's problematic. As a third baseman, his value isn't too bad overall. 20-25 HRs isn't much of a stretch, walks at a decent rate, and can steal a few bases. There are plenty of third basemen in the league worse than that. However, his defense is what could really hurt him. Apparently he's been improving on it recently, but if he can't stick at 3B and will be forced to move into the OF or 1B, his value plummets. All of a sudden, his offense doesn't look quite as good. If he can stick at 3B, I like his chances.

Box Scores Iowa won 5-1 Box Score CF F. Pie 2/4, 2 R, RBI, 2B (25) 2B B. Coats 2/4, R, RBI RF M. Restovich 1/4, RBI, 2B (24) 1B M. Hoffpauir 1/3, RBI, 2 K 3B C. McGehee 2/4, R, RBI, 2B (22), HR (8) C J. Reyes 0/2, BB, PO (2B), HBP SP L. Walrond 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6/1 K/BB, 8-7 GO-FO West Tenn won 7-3 in the 11th! Box Score CF C. Walker 0/4, BB, 2 K 2B E. Patterson 1/5, R, RBI, HR (8), K RF/LF R. Lewis 1/3, 2 BB, R, CS (3) C J. Fox 1/5, 4 K 3B S. Moore 0/3, 2 BB, R, 2 K 1B B. Sing 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (5), 2 K P B. Brownlie 1/2, R, RBI, HR (1), K SP S. Gallagher 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 8/5 K/BB, WP, 6-2 GO-FO, E (1, pickoff) RP T. Atlee 1.1 scoreless, 1 H, 1/2 K/BB, 2-1 GO-FO Daytona lost 5-1 Box Score 2B J. Simokaitis 1/4, RBI, K SS J. Mota 1/3, BB, 2B (6) DH M. Craig 0/4, K RF R. Harvey 0/4, 2 K C J. Muyco 0/4 PH N. Spears 0/1, K SP B. Petrick 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1/1 K/BB, 3 HR, 7-7 GO-FO RP G. Johnson 1.2 scoreless, 2 H, 2/0 K/BB, WP, 1-1 GO-FO Peoria with a day off. Boise won 9-3 CF M. Camp 3/5, R, Assist (2B) C M. Mercedes 2/5, R LF T. Colvin 1/5, R, RBI, K 3B J. Lansford 2/4, 2 R, RBI 1B R. Canzler 2/3, BB, R, 4 RBI, 2B (15), HR (10), SB (4), E (8, fielding) RF A. Joseph 0/4, 2 K 2B S. Clevenger 0/3, BB, R, E (9, throw) SP J. Pina 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1/2 K/BB, HR, 5-9 GO-FO RP A. Maestri 3 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1/0 K/BB, 7-0 GO-FO Mesa with a day off. OVERALL: 3-1

Ask him what his favorite memory was while he was with the Cubs. Also, if you can prod him about stats versus tools, that'd be most welcome. :D

I think you're missing the point on Ks, however. Strikeouts are NOT indicative of plate discipline or patience. If we treat them the same as any other out (which I do), then a strikeout has the same predictive power as a groundout. Strikeouts rarely have any predictive power regarding a guy's potential success in the major leagues. Asking a guy to decrease his Ks could easily produce similar results to Neifi Perez and Juan Pierre. K'ing less does not indicate a player's future success. Moreover, there are plenty of guys in the minors who K a lot and still have found success because of the number of walks they take. As long as you can walk at a reasonable rate, what the heck does it matter if all of your outs come from Ks? If you want a better indicator of why guys with high K rates seemingly flame out more often than those who do not can be traced right back to their IsoD. The reason why I'm so down on Ryan Harvey is because his BB rate is absolutely abysmal; not because he strikes out so often. This is why IsoD is so important in projecting a guy down the line. If a guy shows the ability to take walks on a regular basis, then it's clear he has some semblance of a clue at the plate. Eric Patterson, in my mind, has put up a respectable IsoD (along with a few other stats) that shows he has good pitch recognition skills at a level with relatively advanced pitching. We've seen plenty of pitchers in recent years come straight from AA and succeed in the major leagues. He's faced plenty of pitchers who are good enough to come up to the majors and succeed during his time there. To me, it's really hard to try to expect some level of consistency out of stats that are so heavily tied into batting average, which I believe we both agree is not something that's easy to predict as a prospect advances through the minors. Cripes, look at the studies on the career numbers of BABIP regarding pitchers. Basically, only the really elite guys have been able to show some degree of control over their BABIP levels by sustaining unusually low levels for a short period of time (Maddux between 1992 and 1996, for example). You're looking at statistics that do not act as effective predictive stats for how any given prospect will do in the majors. They tend to be mostly based on luck. Eric Patterson's plate discipline is a heck of a lot better than most of the other guys in this system. He has much better walk rates than other notables such as Felix Pie, Tyler Colvin, and Mark Reed. If he knows how to take a walk and is able to hit line drives on a regular enough basis when he makes contact, then I think his future outlook is good. I don't think he'll become a superstar, but I think he'll turn out well enough to justify a starting role at 2B for much of his career.

So this is a more general question, but it seems like a decent place to ask it. Can plate discipline really be taught to players at the minor league level and up? My brother believes players are too ingrained in their approach by the time they reach professional baseball (minors on up) to undergo radical change. I don't follow minor league baseball enough to know if low OBP guys commonly learn to take walks, or if that's a rarity. Sammy Sosa was one of the few guys who was able to really change his profile to the point where he became a consistent OBP threat. It's incredibly hard to change a guy's profile to the point of turning him into a high OBP player. Minor adjustments can be made, but I think it would just require re-teaching a guy everything he's ever known and learned about hitting to get to that point. Then again, I think it would easily be possible to turn a High OBP guy into a Low OBP guy given the proper adjustments.

See, I'm much higher on Patterson than this for a number of reasons. -Ks are meaningless when evaluating a hitter's future success. I've finally come around on this point and it took a member of the Sabr Society to beat me over the head with a number of studies in order to get here. The strikeout is just another out, nothing more, nothing less. BB/K is not a good indicator of a guy's plate discipline. This is why I've been harping on IsoD quite a bit lately. -He has a very healthy LD% (~19.23%), especially against RHPs (~21.6%). When he makes contact, he's getting a good number of line drives, which will do wonders for his ability to hit for extra bases and possibly even HRs as he fills out. I like that. -His IsoD is currently at .069, which is a tick above average and fairly reasonable. Granted, he's not Adam Dunn or Barry Bonds at the plate, but he draws a reasonable enough number of walks to make me think he has a clue at the plate, unlike a number of other guys in this organization. -His SB% is 77%, which is pretty good for some one down in the minor leagues. When he steals, there's a pretty good chance he won't run himself into an out. He's just above the 75% mark, which strikes me as positive. Bottom line is, his August and July have hurt his batting average, but he's been decidedly unlucky during those stretches (.288 BABIP in July, .111 BABIP in August). His numbers are pretty much in line with BABIP for the season and it's not like he's been striking out more. Trust me on this one; he'll be a good addition to this team in 2007 or 2008. :D

Isolated incidents don't prove a point. That team would have never made it to the NLCS if they sacrificed offense for defense.

Good speed and awareness on the basepaths, above average D at 2B, reasonable OBP/IsoD, and decent power are the reasons why people like him. He still has a few kinks to work out of his game, so I'd expect him to be in AAA for a reasonable portion of next season. If he reaches his ceiling, he'll be a solid guy to have in the lineup. That's a good prospect, imo.

On the rare occasion at Wisconsin football games when they manage to get a split wave off (after a normal one, slow one, fast one, and reverse one), you see that happen. It's a pretty cool sight, imo.

Hendry would go out and pick up a bunch of guys who have high OBPs...but only thanks to their high batting averages.

I'd throw Renshaw and Bernard (who reportedly was hitting high 90s on his fastball) on this list. It'd be nice to know more about guys like Carrillo, Walters, Pina and Hernandez, though. I like the numbers they've put up, but have no idea if they have the stuff or potential to match them.

Remember when I was nagging everyone about why they didn't have Veal in their top 10 lists? :D NOW who's laughing?????

Box Scores Iowa lost 10-7 Box Score CF F. Pie 1/5, RBI, 2B (24), 2 K LF L. Montanez 0/5, 2 K 2B M. Fontenot 1/4 RF M. Restovich 1/5, R 3B C. McGehee 1/3, BB, 2 R SS/2B B. Coats 3/4, R, 2 RBI, K, 2 SB (16) C G. Soto 2/4, R, RBI, K PH M. Hoffpauir 0/0, RBI PH J. Reyes 1/1, RBI SP J. Williams 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4/1 K/BB, 7-7 GO-FO RP A. Shipman 1 scoreless, 2 H, 2-1 GO-FO RP A. Mendez .2 perfect, 2/0 K/BB West Tenn lost 5-0 Box Score CF C. Walker 0/3, 2 BB 2B E. Patterson 1/5 1B R. Lewis 2/4, K 3B S. Moore 1/3, BB C J. Fox 0/4, K RF M. Negron 1/4, 2B (15), E (2, throw) PH B. Sing 0/1 SP JR Mathes 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 5/1 K/BB, HR, 11-2 GO-FO RP L. Holdzkom 2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1/1 K/BB, 5-0 GO-FO Daytona won 3-2 Box Score 2B N. Spears 1/4, BB, R SS J. Mota 1/4, 2 K, E (14, fielding) DH M. Craig 1/2, 2 BB, R RF R. Harvey 2/4, R, RBI, K SP C. Perez 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4/2 K/BB, 2 WP, 6-4 GO-FO Peoria lost 7-1 Box Score CF D. Gregg 0/4, BB, K DH R. Malone 0/5, 3 K RF/LF J. Valdez 0/4, 3 K 1B R. Norwood 1/3, BB, 2B (21) 2B R. Chirinos 2/4 LF A. Garcia 0/3 RF Y. Carter 0/1, K SS K. Reynolds 2/3, BB, R, K SP T. Blackford 3.1 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1/0 K/BB, WP, HBP, 5-4 GO-FO, E (4, pickoff) RP M. Avery 1 perfect, 1-2 GO-FO Boise won 6-0 Box Score CF M. Camp 1/4, R, 2 SB (12) LF T. Colvin 2/3, R, RBI 3B J. Lansford 0/2, BB, RBI 1B R. Canzler 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2B (14), HR (9) RF A. Joseph 0/4 DH E. Puello 2/3, BB, RBI SS P. Lopez 1/4, R, 2B (2) SP F. Jimenez Angulo 6 scoreless, 3 H, 2/1 K/BB, HBP, 10-6 GO-FO RP J. Papelbon 3 scoreless, 2 H, 2/0 K/BB, 5-2 GO-FO Mesa lost 12-3 Box Score 2B V. Heredia 1/4, BB, RBI, K, SB (20), E (10, fielding) SS N. Samson 0/2, BB, K, CS (1) PH/SS C. Valentin 0/1, RBI CF D. Rundle 2/3, 2B (4), 3B (2), K, HBP PH/1B L. Murphy 0/1, K DH C. Andersen 2/2, R, HBP PH/DH W. Inoa 1/1 LF C. Gilbert 0/4, K 3B F. Tirado 1/3, R, 2B (1), E (5, fielding) PH L. Rosario 0/1, K SP J. Ceda 3 scoreless, 2 H, 4/0 K/BB, 2-1 GO-FO RP R. Hernandez 1.2 scoreless, 2 H, WP, 1-4 GO-FO (allowed 3 inherited runners) OVERALL: 2-4

I'll take QB Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville.

Updated once again: QB Carson Palmer Tom Brady Michael Vick Daunte Culpepper Marc Bulger Donovan McNabb Peyton Manning Matt Hasselbeck Eli Manning Jake Delhomme Trent Green Drew Brees WR Marvin Harrison Anquan Boldin Randy Moss Hines Ward Larry Fitzgerald Terrell Owens Chris Chambers Steve Smith Chad Johnson Santana Moss Torry Holt Roy Williams Reggie Wayne Darrell Jackson Donald Driver Joe Horn Plaxico Burress Andre Johnson Joey Galloway Reggie Brown Deion Branch Lee Evans TJ Houshmandzadeh Javon Walker Nate Burleson Keenan McCardell Drew Bennett Derrick Mason Laveraneus Coles RB LaDanian Tomlinson Clinton Portis Ronnie Brown Kevin Jones LaMont Jordan Domanick Davis Tiki Barber Julius Jones Steven Jackson Cadillac Williams Shaun Alexander Rudi Johnson Edgerrin James Larry Johnson Willis McGahee Brian Westbrook Willie Parker Corey Dillon Tatum Bell Reggie Bush Deuce McAllister Joseph Addai Jamal Lewis Chester Taylor Reuben Droughns Warrick Dunn Cedric Benson Thomas Jones Frank Gore Ron Dayne LenDale White DeShaun Foster Laurence Maroney Mike Bell TE Antonio Gates Jeremy Shockey Tony Gonzalez Todd Heap Jason Witten Alge Crumpler Randy McMichael Heath Miller DEF Chicago Bears Pittsburgh Steelers NY Giants Seattle Seahawks

I don't want to have to say this again, but I'm hoping this is the last time I have to say it about Moneyball. I think that the vast majority of the old school crowd who really dislike Moneyball either never read it or never really understood what it was about (or possibly both). The simplified argument is that it focuses too heavily on stats and that it's all about Oakland's love affair with OBP. Problem is...that's not really what it was about. Moneyball was about running a business with only limited number of resources. It was about finding ways to utilize and exploit the market in order to maximize the potential signings at the disposal of the Athletics. It centered on economics, risk assessment, and investing. If you took most of the human element out of the book, you could look into it like a book on the stock market. Beane was attempting to find weaknesses in the market. Basically, he tried to find the players who were undervalued, not sought out, relatively cheap, and most likely to return their investment, if not with interest. The problem is, the scouts who based their assessments on traditional statistics, gut feelings, and tools were not consistently effective enough to justify taking certain risks (such as taking a highly projectible high school pitcher). The Athletics needed a method which had a lower floor (and by extension, a lower ceiling) since they needed to spend their money wisely. Enter OBP and taking college pitchers higher in the draft than was the norm at the time. These guys were cheap, since other teams ignored or were unaware of those stats. Oakland was able to get them cheaply and were also using a less risky way of evaluating the guys, meaning they'd be more likely to make the majors (albeit, it was not 100% effective and these guys were less likely to become superstars). As you can see with recent Oakland drafts, their philosophy has shifted. More teams have been picking up on OBP and heavily utilizing statistics (Boston, Toronto, LA Dodgers for a period of time, etc), meaning those guys were no longer undervalued and pricing themselves out of Oakland's range. Recently, they've been taking more high school arms. Short version: Moneyball's not about the wonders of OBP and computers. It's about one effective way of running a business in baseball when your budget is limited.

I went to a game a number of years ago. In the section next to mine, there was a bachelor party going on with a bunch of guys in their late 20s drunk out of their minds. They tried to start the wave, but no one was budging on it. Eventually, an usher came over to them and said, "Sirs, we do not engage in that kind of behavior here at Wrigley. Please stop." It ruled. :D

They had a weird ruling for Akinori Otsuka, who had the ball slap in the glove in his delivery. He could do it with no one on base, but would be called for a balk if anyone was on.

Hell of a risky pick, IMB.

As memory serves me, Miller made it clear when he signed with this team that he had no intention of being a reliever.

Tigers' records against said teams: White Sox: 3-6 Red Sox: 1-2 Yankees: 1-4 They have three games left against the Yankees and three left against the Red Sox. They also have seven left with the White Sox. If the Red Sox and Yankees make the playoffs, the Tigers won't have to worry about facing the White Sox. Finally, regular season records don't tend to tell the whole story. Let's check out some of the recent WS winners and their regular season records against the other playoff teams in their league: Chicago White Sox Records in 2005: AL East Division Champs NY Yankees: 3-3 AL Wild Card Boston Red Sox: 3-4 AL West Champs LAA Angels: 4-6 Boston Red Sox' Records in 2004: AL East Division Champs NY Yankees: 11-8 AL Central Champs Minnesota Twins: 2-4 AL West Champs LAA Angels: 5-4 Marlins' Records in 2003: AL East Division Champs Atlanta: 10-9 NL Wild Card SF Giants: 1-5 NL Central Champs Chicago Cubs: 2-4 I could go on doing this. The bottom line is, the regular season does not make for good predictions when it comes to the postseason. All of a sudden, those crappy 4th and 5th starters can go flying out the door. Taking three out of five from a team in the regular season doesn't sound like much, but it'll be enough to advance from the first round. Ditto taking four out of seven when it comes to making it to the World Series and winning one.