Outshined_One

Copy-paste!

I've repeated this time and again whenever people try to do limited analyses of drafted players in terms of success rates based on a certain classification (pitchers, position players, college, HS, etc). They do not work. There are numerous factors which make things so incredibly muddled in terms of determining whether a team made the right decision in drafting a player. I've seen a number of studies done on overall success rates in the draft and whatnot, but you absolutely cannot make universal judgments on players based on something like whether that player was drafted in the Top 10 or if that guy was drafted as a shortstop. Here are a few factors worth noting... -Signability. In 2006, the consensus best player in the draft (Andrew Miller) fell to #6 due to signability concerns, since the top teams were worried about his contract demands. In 2004, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew suffered the same fate. Because of contract demands, college commitments, and a variety of other factors, guys who would otherwise be taken in the Top 10, first round, first five rounds, or whatever, based on talent instead fall well out of those spots. It's not necessarily that the Cubs have been able to unearth guys like Sean Gallagher, Jeff Samardzija, and Chris Huseby because they were diamonds in the rough. Instead, the Cubs had enough scouting and money to pry those guys away from their commitments. -Injuries. Yes, they are an unfortunate fact of life when it comes to sports, but I maintain that the majority of injuries which occur are not foreseeable. Sometimes, bad things happen to guys which no one could see coming and it could at the least set back their development and at worst end their careers. How fair is it to judge a team based on drafting a certain player in hindsight when, at the time, he had a clean bill of health with no red flags? Cripes, just imagine what the Mets' rotation would look like if Isringhausen, Wilson, and Pulsipher didn't all have arm injuries. I'll refrain from addressing the Cubs' history in this area, but you get the idea. -Arbitrariness/Sample Size. This is part nitpick, part major point. The nitpick is, why limit yourself to the Top 10? What makes 10 so special? How much would it affect the numbers, success rates, and correlations if you increased the sample size to something like Top 15, Top 20, and so on? Based on the signability issues I mentioned above, wouldn't it make some sense to expand the pool to include these potential top picks who fell because of money concerns? Secondly, this is an incredibly difficult thing to accurately measure in terms of sample size. I've seen people pull out the last 15 #6 overall picks in the NFL draft based on the Bears' tradeup rumors and people have been making predictions based on the success numbers at that pick. The problem is, the pick itself does not dictate how good or bad a player will be; it's the scouting department, talent available, and to a certain extent the luck that will determine that matter. To me, that's the bottom line in all of this. I don't particularly care who the Cubs draft, where the guy played ball, how old he is, and so on. What I really care about is whether the Cubs did their homework on the guy and know that he's got the chops to make an impact on the big league club some day. Poor scouting and bad luck lead to more busted draft picks than anything else, you know?

Remember, Lee Elia's tirade came when the team was 5-14. Little early in the season for that kind of behavior, eh?

Box Scores Iowa lost 12-8 Box Score 3B M. Fontenot 2/4, BB, 2 R, 2B (1) 2B E. Patterson 2/4, BB, 2 R, RBI, SB (2) CF F. Pie 1/3, BB, 2 R, 2 RBI 1B M. Hoffpauir 3/5, 3 RBI LF S. Moore 0/3, 2 BB, RBI, 2 K RF B. Coats 1/5 SS C. Rojas 1/4, R, K PH A. Pagan 1/1, R SP R. Wells 3 IP, 9 H, 9 ER, 3/4 K/BB, HR, 3-3 GO-FO Tennessee PPD: Rain Daytona won Game 1 of their DH 5-1 Box Score 2B N. Spears 1/4, K CF T. Colvin 1/4, 2B, SB (2) 1B R. Norwood 1/3, IBB, K 3B R. Chirinos 0/2, BB, K C M. Reed 1/3, RBI SS M. Matulia 1/3, R, 2B (2) SP J. Santo 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1/1 K/BB, 6-7 GO-FO RP M. Avery 1 scoreless, 1 H, 1/2 K/BB, 1-1 GO-FO Daytona lost Game 2 of the DH 8-1 Box Score 2B N. Spears 1/3, K CF T. Colvin 0/3, K 1B R. Norwood 1/3, R, K C J. Muyco 1/2, CS (1) SS M. Matulia 0/2, 2 K SP M. Atkins 4.1 IP, 2 H, 6 R, 1 ER, 4/1 K/BB, HR, HBP, 3-6 GO-FO, 2 E (2, throw, fielding) RP B. Petrick 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1/0 K/BB, 0-2 GO-FO Peoria PPD: Rain OVERALL: 1-2

I like Peoria's pitching staff this year. I have no idea how any of them will turn out, but it's nice to know there are a number of promising young arms in the lower levels of the system.

What a bum!

If Hill pitches better than Z, it'll mean the Cubs have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball.

Would Reinsdorf really vote against whoever Zell sells the Cubs to? While Reinsdorf is the majority owner of the White Sox, he would have to deal with Zell harboring any resentment for interfering with this deal. Plus, I'm unsure about whether Reinsdorf has any kind of a relationship (positive, negative, bff, whatever) with Cuban. Would he really want to have to deal with an angry Cuban at owners' meetings in the NBA?

Here's the thing... If you are basically guaranteed to have a bad outing every fifth time in the rotation, which would you prefer at this point? A relatively young pitcher who has a nice upside, but lacks consistency and experience. He's being paid the minimum for his experience and is fine with being in the bullpen. A veteran pitcher who lost his stuff due to injury and does not seem to be getting it back any time soon. He's being paid $1.5m and has flatout said he would not be in the bullpen. I'm a believer in upside over experience in these kinds of situations. One way or another, you'll have some bad outings every fifth day. However, Guzman at least gets some much-needed experience as a starter and you can determine whether or not he's the real deal. With Miller, you pretty much know what you're going to get. If his stuff isn't making a comeback any time soon, there's not much of a reason to throw him out there every fifth day. Edit: Can someone fix that link so that it doesn't throw the page layout off this badly? Thanks.

I feel like we're back to the days of Shawn Estes versus Juan Cruz and Glendon Rusch versus Rich Hill. Joy.

You are correct 8-[

Box Scores Iowa won 9-7 in the 10th Box Score SS C. Rojas 0/4, 2 K CF F. Pie 2/5, 3 R, RBI, 2B (1), HR (1) C G. Soto 1/3, 2 BB, 2 R 1B M. Hoffpauir 3/4, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (1) 3B C. McGehee 1/3, E (1, throw) 2B E. Patterson 0/2, 2 K LF S. Moore 1/5, RBI, 3 K RF B. Coats 1/5, R, RBI, HR (1), 2 K PH M. Fontenot 0/1 PH A. Pagan 0/1 PH L. Walrond 0/1 (hee hee hee) SP JR Mathes 4 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4/1 K/BB, 2-6 GO-FO RP C. Rapada .2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1/2 K/BB, 0-1 GO-FO RP F. Baez 1.1 scoreless, 1 H, 1/1 K/BB, 0-3 GO-FO Daytona PPD: Rain Peoria won 8-3 in 8 innings Box Score 2B M. Camp 1/4, RBI, 2B (1) CF V. Heredia 0/4, R, 2 K 3B J. Lansford 1/4, R, 2 RBI, HR (1), K, 2 E (3, fielding x2) 1B R. Canzler 3/3, BB, 3 R, 2B (1), 3B (1), SB (2) LF A. Joseph 1/3, R, RBI, 2B (1), CS (1) DH Y. Carter 0/3, IBB, K RF P. Lopez 0/4, 4 K (ole!) C W. Castillo 2/4, R, 3 RBI, HR (1), 2 K, E (2, pickoff) SS J. Mota 0/3, BB, R, 2 K, SB (1) SP J. Ceda 5 IP, 3 H, 3R, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB, 3 WP, 3-4 GO-FO RP A. Maestri 2 perfect, 1/0 K/BB, 1-4 GO-FO Tennessee with an off day. OVERALL: 2-0

I know some people can't stand it, but this is one of my all-time favorite Dugouts.

It's cool, just remember that 50 is the new 30. ;)

Hey Nate, After today's terrific performance, what can you tell us about the 19 year old phenom, Rafael Dolis?

It kind of scares me that we will be seeing players born in the 90's soon. I'm 23 and still have trouble believing that LeBron James is nearly a year younger than me. Makes me feel old. :(

Chiefs' 5th Inning Infield Single, sounds like Camp muffed it Throwing Error on the Pickoff Attempt, Runner to Third Popup to SS Four Pitch BB Batter swings at a WP, runner scores Flyout to CF Popup to 3B That should be it for Dolis. Chiefs lead 2-1.

:shock:

Jeremy has a twin brother in the Boston system, to boot.

Considering it adjusts for eras and the latest craze is to accuse anyone who played baseball between 1985 and now of steroid abuse, I'd say it does. :D

The Prince of Pap will make his presence known soon...

Box Scores Iowa won 9-4 Box Score SS M. Fontenot 1/4, BB, R 2B E. Patterson 3/5, 2 R, RBI, 2B (1), SB (1), 2 E (fielding x2) CF F. Pie 3/4, IBB, 3 R, SB (1) 1B M. Hoffpauir 1/5, R, RBI, 2 K LF S. Moore 1/5, 3 RBI, K, SB (1) RF B. Coats 1/5, RBI, 2B (1), K 3B C. McGehee 1/5, K PH C. Rojas 1/1, R SP C. Marmol 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 6/2 K/BB, 2 WP, 3-3 GO-FO RP R. Cherry 2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1/0 K/BB, 2-2 GO-FO, Pickoff RP F. Baez 1 scoreless, 1 H, 1/0 K/BB, 2-0 GO-FO Tennessee lost 1-0 in the Bottom of the 9th (:()Box Score CF C. Walker 0/4, K LF J. Fox 0/3 1B B. Dopirak 0/3, 2 K C C. Robinson 1/3, 2B (1), K 3B M. Craig 0/1, K SP M. Holliman 6 scoreless, 4 H, 7/1 K/BB, HBP, 2-8 GO-FO RP A. Mendez 1.1 scoreless, 1 H, 1/1 K/BB, 2-0 GO-FO Daytona lost 4-3 Box Score 2B N. Spears 0/3, K 1B R. Norwood 0/2, BB, R PR T. Colvin 0/0 (just letting all of you know he made an appearance) C M. Reed 0/4, 3 K, E (1, throw) SS M. Matulia 0/3, BB SP S. Taylor 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3/2 K/BB, HR, WP, 6-6 GO-FO RP J. Estrada 3 hitless and scoreless, 1/2 K/BB, 7-1 GO-FO Peoria won 2-1 Box Score 2B M. Camp 2/3, R, HBP DH P. Lopez 1/4, RBI, 2B (1), 2 K 3B J. Lansford 0/4 1B R. Canzler 0/4, 3 K CF A. Joseph 1/4 RF Y. Carter 1/4, R, 2B (1), K SS D. Johnston 0/4 LF DJ Lewis 1/3, BB, RBI, 2B (1) SP R. Dolis 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 8/2 K/BB, WP, 0-7 GO-FO, E (1, pickoff) RP J. Pina 1 hitless/scoreless, 2/0 K/BB, WP, HBP, 0-1 GO-FO OVERALL: 2-2

Nice call on the pitchout!

And now to get rid of that pesky shutout.

When you start off 0-2 on every batter, you know you're in for a PERFECT GAME.