Outshined_One

I don't believe there was any confirmation on those items, but the two main guys who should be available this offseason are SPs Roki Sasaki (more on him in a second) and Tomoyuki Sugano, both pitchers. There was some speculation that 3B Munetaka Murakami might be posted this offseason, but he's more likely to come over in 2026 and will probably be one of the white whales in free agency after next season. As previously discussed, Sugano comes without any meaningful restrictions in FA, but is in his mid-30s and will probably end up as a back-end RHP rotation guy. Sasaki is fascinating, but is a potential victim of MLB's greed and the MLBPA's willingness to throw non-members under the bus. The linked FanGraphs article provides more info, but basically, because Sasaki (23) is under the age of 25, the International Bonus Cap Rules apply, which completely muddles his situation. If he's posted in the coming weeks, then the 2023-24 caps apply, but if he's posted on or after January 15, 2025, then the 2024-25 caps apply. Making things more annoying, the caps also can apply to any posting fee, meaning his team (Chiba Lotte Marines) might want to sit on him another two seasons if they want to get a multimillion dollar payout from an MLB team. Further complicating his situation is the fact that Sasaki has been battling injuries this season and his production was below expectations as a result. Normally, these circumstances would dictate that the Marines would hang onto Sasaki until they could maximize his posting fee in two years, but there are whispers that Sasaki has a posting clause in his contract that could force the Marines to post him this offseason. Whether the Cubs would be in on Sasaki is an open question, but, if Sasaki is posted after January 15, the Cubs would be better positioned to pursue him than they are now, and it is possible for teams to trade for signing bonus space in the event a bidding war breaks out,. He ticks a lot of the Cubs' need boxes (RHP starter, ++++ stuff, young, controllable, etc.) and would be an excellent addition to the team, but, again, there is no guarantee he'll even be posted this offseason.

We're in accord on this point! My initial post was more, "This seems like something the Cubs would do," than "This is something I want the Cubs to do," followed by me trying to talk myself into thinking it wasn't a bad idea because I'm trying to avoid the seemingly inevitable disappointment I'll be feeling when we're approaching Spring Training and debating if the Cubs should roll the dice on Luis Severino to fill out the rotation.

One thing that I've been meaning to do some deeper digging on is the short term success rate of Japanese pitchers who get posted to MLB. There seems to be a scouting imbalance with those guys, since almost every hitter will have never seen them before and certain teams don't seem to bother scouting Japan at all. My (admittedly anecdotal) memory is that most Japanese pitchers tend to do fairly well in their first 1-2 seasons in MLB before teams are able to adjust. I agree that velocity is a problem for this team, but if there's a competitive advantage in getting Sugano during that window and he's willing to take a 2-3 year deal, it might be worthwhile.

I'm wondering if Jed would go hard after Sugano as an SP option, given there would be no issues with the QO and his age might depress his price tag enough to make him a bargain.

I get the sneaking suspicion we'll be hearing a lot about James Triantos, moreso than Shaw, come Spring Training if Nico's not back to 100%. There's been discussions elsewhere on this forum about Shaw having some swing issues (which *should* be correctable) that could give him problems in the majors, and how he may benefit from additional time at AAA. Triantos has the sort of profile that should play well in the majors, plus he fits Nico's role as a contact-heavy speedster. He probably also could use some more seasoning in AAA, but I think he's a better candidate to fill an immediate need than Shaw based on his profile.

It's rare, but all it takes is an inattentive anesthesiologist or a distracted surgeon.

A lot of us were hoping the Cubs would figure out a way to do something like that with Kyle Schwarber waaaaay back in the day. That obviously did not happen.

One of the things I absolutely loved about the Cubs' approach to IFA prior to the 2016 CBA was the attempts at making inroads in places like Korea, Taiwan, Europe, and Australia. They ultimately didn't get a whole lot to show for their efforts (Hak-Ju Lee and Hee Seop Choi being the notable exceptions), but it seemed like there was a fair amount of untapped potential in those markets. It also felt like other teams were more active in those markets pre-CBA with names like Liam Hendriks and Max Kepler sticking out to me. I'm frankly racking my brain trying to come up with IFAs from those markets who've signed and come to prominence in MLB in recent memory.

It's odd to me that an article on this topic appeared to cherry pick individual success stories instead of doing a team-by-team comparison. Don't get me wrong, it's infuriating how certain teams like the Brewers and Rays seem to churn out these sorts of guys on a regular basis despite operating on significantly lower budgets than the Cubs. It also feels like a stretch to attribute Oneil Cruz's success to the Pirates when the Dodgers were the team who originally scouted and signed him, plus he had spent time in the Dodgers' system before being traded. However, there is the matter that developing 16 and 17 year old international prospects can be a long, long, long road. Cristian Hernandez is 20 years old. The Cubs signed Cristian Hernandez back in January of 2021, and only recently did he finally produce at a meaningful level, and even he is still at least three years away from being ML-ready. Guys like Valdez and Cruz may not see the majors for another 5-6 years within reasonable expectations. It seems criminally unfair to penalize and criticize guys for not producing as superstars when they've just been teenagers for most, if not all, of their tenures with this team. MLB's changes to international signings beginning in 2017 also need to be taken into account. The CBA completely undercut a team's ability to consistently out-spend other teams on a year to year basis with international players, as there has been a hard cap on what teams can spend on a year basis, with penalties assessed for teams exceeding the cap. This evened the playing field, but it definitely hurt the Cubs, who were big players even before Theo took the reins. It's disingenuous for someone to claim the Cubs should be spending big on international players when they simply cannot do that the way they did pre-2016 CBA. In summary, this article reads like a conclusion in search of facts. So, with all that said, what I want to know is, where do the Cubs stack up relative to all other MLB teams over the last decade in terms of international youth signings and development? Rather than focus on an individual success story or two, how do the Cubs stack up overall against their division rivals, and against the rest of baseball overall? My suspicion is they are likely middle of the pack, but, if there is evidence that the Cubs produced poorly relative to all other teams, I am willing to listen and discuss what they need to do to fix it.

Gotta protect that draft capital!

Considering we're almost a week away from the regular season tipoff, now seemed as good of a time as any to start this thread. Lonzo is rumored to be returning during this Wednesday's preseason game against the Wolves. I want him to be fully recovered and hope he can play a full season, but eesh, I'm not optimistic about that with his injury history.

Matt ShawCade HortonOwen CaissieMoises BallesterosKevin AlcantaraCam SmithJames TriantosJefferson RojasJaxon WigginsBrandon BirdsellCristian HernandezDerniche ValdezDrew GrayAlfonsin RosarioFernando CruzMichael AriasPedro RamirezWill SandersJonathon LongCole Mathis

It's reminiscent of Starlin Castro when he had his breakout season in 2009. The numbers didn't pop, but the projection (due in large part to age) was through the roof and the fact that he produced at High A/AA at his age merited prospecticators strapping a rocket to his back. Rojas has plenty of work left to do, but he's advanced for his age and plays a premium position.

He should be in the HOF on the merits, but he was a horsefeathers person and I don't care if he ever gets admitted.

Plus bullpen arms are so damned finicky and the Cubs' RP depth is muddled. The Cubs could sign Clay Holmes and trade for Emmanuel Clase in the offseason, and I'd still be worried about the bullpen going into 2025.

I'd flame away if this were a year ago today, but this season was definitely a downer for Horton and his potential to be a reliable SP. There is some comfort that his injury issues were not the sort that typically sink a pitcher's career, but still, he's got work to do next season.

The other problem they had was, 2016 happened due, in part, to luck. The Cubs hit on multiple high quality prospects (Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, Almora), had a generational talent falling into their lap in the draft (Bryant), and won on trades that critically bolstered the team (Rizzo, Russell, and Hendricks). There was a bit of arrogance from the organization, like they could sustain this success and just have an assembly line farm system churning out one great player after the other. However, while they deserve credit for identifying and developing those guys, they also got lucky. Schwarber was the only major injury to come out of that group in 2016, and he somehow managed to come back for the World Series. Everyone hit on the high end of their development curve. The Astros could have easily drafted Bryant over Appel. Since then, most of their top flight prospects have suffered injury setbacks (Howard, Horton, Wicks, Marquez, Alzolay) and/or hit developmental brick walls (B. Little, Jensen, Lange, Howard and Marquez again). It seems like they've finally turned a corner, and they managed to develop solid pieces like Happ, Hoerner, Busch, and Steele in the interim, but it's taken nearly 8 years to get the farm to where they thought it would be.

You've been decidedly less annoying this season than last, to your credit. I'd PM Brock if you're serious about it.

Thanks for continuing to carry on the legacy, CR.

The bottom line I got out of this week is Caleb is still going through growing pains, the coaching staff goes through periods of doing brainless crap, and they're still trying to figure out the OL and RBs. Losses suck, but this one seems to be a lot better than last week's loss.

Did Steele just not have it today, or was it something worse that got him pulled after 2.2 IP?

Do we have to?

AAA

To me, he's in an odd spot at the moment. He's on pace to be a 2-3 WAR 1B, which should put him among the Top 10 1Bs in the major leagues, but it's unclear if he will take a Rizzo-like jump in production, or if this is the level we can expect from him going forward. I think it's going to come down to internal evaluations in the offseason, because, facially, he is an excellent piece in a hypothetical trade for someone like Vlad Jr. At the same time, last offseason, he would have been an excellent piece in a hypothetical Pete Alonso trade, and now Busch is on pace to have a substantially better season.