Outshined_One
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Everything posted by Outshined_One
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Apparently the Rooftop Freeloaders Are Still a Thing
Outshined_One replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I get really irked when outlets try to frame them like small time mom and pop businesses being forced out by Goliath, when really they own properties and businesses worth millions of dollars, run a business model based on freeloading, and (speaking from personal experience) are genuinely unpleasant people. Don't get me wrong, horsefeathers the Ricketts family in all sorts of ways, but this is one of those fights where I'd rather everyone lost. -
Link Why ESPN is still giving these people any oxygen is beyond me.
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Bears Week 5: @GB Sunday at noon on Fox
Outshined_One replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
Ditka deserves an untold amount of horsefeathers for anything politically-related he's ever said/done, but he also deserves credit for the '85 Bears. -
Alright, alright, let's gently put the thread back on track here. Where was I? Oh right, trade Shaw to Sacramento. They have some fun guys who are probably desperate to get out.
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You know he'd turn into Scott horsefeathers Rolen the moment he was traded to STL. In other words:
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I also feel like a good chunk of the board is still stuck in the 90s when it comes to salary figures. $20m no longer buys you the best player in baseball. It gets you an above average hitter, which is pretty much what Happ is.
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On the one hand, I get it from a hitting standpoint, but on the other hand, this OF market is brutal for the Cubs, Sato seems likely to end up with a short term Murakami-like deal (2/$34m), and Sato offers positional versatility as a 3B/OF. It's admittedly a bit of a desperation play on my part, because some of my feelings on Sato admittedly come from a place of dread of the alternative if Happ and/or Seiya leave. I've made my POV on their internal options known in this thread, and I do not get any positive feelings when I look at the other OF options likely to be available, either because I don't think they're realistic (Arozarena), they're a massive risk (Duran), and/or they'd require trade resources better used to acquire pitching (Kwan). Blah.
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I feel like KA would work best as a secondary option rather than a primary. I'd be glad having him for specific matchups, giving guys off days, and his ability to man all three OF spots, but I feel like things *should* have clicked for him by now. I know, I know, he'll be 24 next season and prospect fatigue is very real with him, but I am way more optimistic about Kane Kepley being a starting OF in 2028 than I am with KA. As much as people might not like it, Happ ticks most every box this FO values: intangibles, versatility as a switch hitter, reasonably productive, likely to give a hometown discount, etc.
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I'm seriously beginning to talk myself into the Cubs being active players with Japanese postings this offseason, and my thought process for this oddly stems from the 2016 team. Entering 2016, the Cubs signed John Lackey and Jason Heyward, both of whom were key members of the 2016 team for obvious reasons, but, that resulted in the Cubs forfeiting their 1st and 2nd round picks with the Cubs' 2016 draft making a firm argument for the worst draft the Cubs have ever had. Seriously, go look it up. I know @Jason Ross will probably correct me on this, but I don't think the Cubs have forfeited a first round pick since then, and I believe every draft since 2016 has featured at least one Cubs second round pick. While the Cubs had other issues after the 2016 draft, it's clear that they recognized how much damage that draft did to the farm since they have not been particularly gung-ho on signing big ticket free agents since then. 2016 wasn't a world-beater draft, but it still saw guys like Alonso and Bichette popped in the 2nd round. The more I read about them, the more guys like Sato, Taira, and Itoh make sense for this team, both in terms of fits and because there is zero draft penalty associated with picking them up. Granted, the Cubs won't be the only team vying for their services, but if, say, the Cubs retain Seiya and Happ turns down the QO and leaves, going from Happ to Sato shouldn't be nearly as rough as, say, the dropoff from Happ to Conforto.
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Or this dude:
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When it comes to prospecteering, ERA is actually a really bad metric to use for evaluating pitching prospects. ERA does not take into account four things which are significantly magnified at the minor league level: defense, stadium size, field quality, and development. A teenage OF who takes a bad route to a playable ball that drops for a hit or slips past him for extra bases isn't going to show up as an error. A 320 foot routine flyout to LF wouldn't even reach the warning track at Wrigley, but would clear the fence at Dozer Park in Peoria. A number of minor league stadiums are also notorious for divots, flooding, and other issues which, again, won't show up in the box score, but will affect balls in play. As for development, pitchers will always be working under specific instructions for mechanical purposes; things like: "You can only throw fastballs and changeups in this outing," or "Instead of gripping your two seam fastball one way, use this grip instead." A guy tinkering with his mechanics or a new pitch might get shelled for a number of outings before things start to click. In the majors, this would be a disaster, but in the minors, those results don't matter. It's not to say the Cubs are in good shape with their farm system's pitching going forward (they aren't), but there are better ways of determining the quality of pitching prospects they have than just using ERA,
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- jostin florentino
- cade townsend
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I missed something, is Dansby Swanson somehow holding this team back from being a contender, or are people just going crazy because of the way the season ended?
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I'll go ahead and say it, even though it's admittedly wishcasting: Paul Skenes. He's now arb-eligible, and he had enough of a dip in 2026 that the Pirates might be willing to trade him off for a king's ransom if there are any concerns about his medicals going into 2027. I have zero inside information and the Pirates might think their window is just opening, which would throw this out the window, but they need bats and have enough pitching in their system that the right trade could shift their window from 2 years starting in 2027 to 5-7 years starting in 2028.
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The Cubs pretty much *have* to sign at least one of Happ and Seiya, right? I feel like Happ would at least take a discount on a 2-3 year deal, but Seiya feels like he'll get 5 years elsewhere. However, they're pretty catastrophically screwed if they have to fill both OF spots. I don't get the sense the Cubs will give Arozarena what he'd get elsewhere (which is justified), and their internal options range from not ready to guys better used on the infield to Kevin Alcantara.
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You can talk yourself into him being a legitimate TOR guy in 2027 if he could just stay healthy, but recent injury struggles seem to suggest otherwise. Depending on your perspective, he could be another Matthew Boyd...or another Edward Cabrera. On a one to two year prove it deal as the third or fourth best pitcher acquired this offseason? Sure, why not?
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I'm kinda leaning into the idea of using Hartshorn in a trade for a top level pitcher. There's enough Shiny New Toy happening with him that his value might never be higher, and I can see a team like the Pirates or Mariners buying into him as a potential franchise RF/1B.
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Don't worry, they'll say they made a competitive offer.
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Welcome!
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The difficulty with this sentiment is nearly every worthwhile pitcher in MLB has a serious injury history. Some teams do a better job of managing pitcher health than others, but guys who reach the majors without having undergone some major surgical procedure on their elbow and/or shoulder are veritable unicorns.
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This came up in a different thread, I would not bank on Wiggins and/or Birdsell seeing substantial time in the majors in 2027. Birdsell is returning from major surgery and will be on pitch/inning limits, and Wiggins wasn't looking quite right to end the season in Iowa after dealing with nagging injury issues. The pitching in the system is improving, but there's a distinct lack of depth in the upper levels.
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I can see them being active with NPB postings, depending on who's available. It's easy to envision the Dodgers taking a pass on most of these guys, since no one's in the Ohtani/Yamamoto tier, but guys like RF Teruaki Sato (power bat) and SP/RP Kaima Taira (velocity) seem to match up nicely with the Cubs' needs going into the offseason, assuming they're posted.
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If we're dreaming, Sato would help solve the corner OF situation if he gets posted.
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You'll want to rethink that after looking at the upcoming FA class.
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Counterpoint: Beast Quake (Seattle was 7-9 when they made the 2010/2011 playoffs).
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Back-breaker HR, and the fun's not over yet.
