The-Kris-Bryant

Bryant HR to right field.

Does Vitters count? Because apparently Wilken wanted Wieters. Plus there's Colvin and Simpson. Hard to throw Colvin as one with Shark. I'm also pretty sure Simpson was their guy and he wouldn't have slipped to the cubs 3rd or 4th rounder. We had a huge split between picks that year. Makes rational sense if you don't buy into the conspiracy theories.

You can flip this argument around. Assume for a second that he was not a first round pick, but a third or fourth round pick. He would have been a 3B with a pretty good 19 year old debut season in A. He struggled a bit in his two stints in High A at 19/20, but seemed to be alright as a 21 year old in AA in 2011. At that point he probably would have been sneaking into the back end of most teams top 10, if not the BA Top 100. Then, as a 22 year old he hit .304/.356/.513 in AAA and at least has pretty good offensive tools. At that point he would have likely flown into the Top 100 prospects. Of course his stint in the Show sucked, but people would have given him mulligan given his performance in AAA and his age. Of course last year was a lost season, but when he was healthy he was successful. He's not an old prospect by any stretch of the imagination for a guy in AAA. He didn't turn 24 until the end of last season and he is a full year younger than Mike Olt -- which we have sitting at #11 -- and is proven at a higher level. Vitters now has about a full season at Iowa and has hit .302/.361/.513/.873 with 22 HR. While I don't think the world of the guy, I do think he's been around so long as a top prospect that he almost gets underrated on his performance now. It wouldn't surprise me if he went the Michael Cuddyer career route where he started at as a first round HS pick who was kind of forgotten by the time he was 25 after being a top flight prospect for 4-5 years. Then all of a sudden he was 27 and a pretty impactful offensive force and gave some flexibility in being able to play 3B, CO and 1B (albeit not really good)

I'll go with 3.

I think a decent comparison would be pre-2006 DBacks. #2 SS Justin Upton #5 SS Stephen Drew #17 OF Conor Jackson #20 OF Carlos Quentin #23 OF Chris Young #32 OF Carlos Gonzalez You've got a good mix of athletic OF types with upside (Soler/Quentin), more rounded OF types (Almora/Gonzalez), sheer freaks in potential (Baez/Upton) and quality college bats right just drafted (Drew/Bryant). Couple Jackson and Young (and the next year Montero came on strong) with Rizzo and Castro and you've got two systems loaded with potential offensive talent all over the place. The Dbacks didn't have a ton of farm pitching at the time, but began to acquire it a bit with some of the aforementioned prospects. Still, useful comparison especially if we flip one for an established pitcher. The DBacks did win the division twice in the next six years... But also finished last twice.

Going off my top 15 cubs prospects list. 0 - The Cubs top ranked pitching project pre-2015 is not in the Cubs organization. (Not sure how much of a bold prediction that is) 1 - Javy Baez "struggles" for AAA for much of the first half of the season. Of course, for Baez struggling is hitting .270/.330/.500 or there about. He's called up in July after Starlin Castro (who slightly rebounds) and Jeff Samardzija are traded. Baez hits about the same over the rest of the Major League season. 2 - Kris Bryant has an extremely slow start for the first month or so in Double A before turning it around, skipping AAA and joining Baez in Wrigley. 3 - Albert Almora hits 25 HR, achieves top 5 prospect status by end of 2014. 4 - Jorge Soler's raw tools stand out, but he flashes his potential, hits 25 HR while hitting .250, mainly at AA. 5 - Arismendy Alcantara breaks camp with the Chicago Cubs 6 - CJ Edwards does not make it out of Double A and struggles. 7 - Pierce Johnson makes his MLB debut in August 8 - Dan Vogelbach will make us question Rizzo's long-term position whether or not we can tolerate his defense for his bat? 9/10 - Because Mike Olt or Christian Villanueva bursts onto the major league scene as a solid 3B, Kris Bryant does not play a game for the Cubs at third. 11 - Jeimer Candelario does not develop and falls to the 15/20ish range next year 12 - Neil Ramirez becomes a solid part of the Cubs bullpen and remains there 13 - Paul Blackburn takes a huge step forward and becomes ranked higher than CJ Edwards in 2015 Top 10. 14 - Kyle Hendricks steps into the Cubs rotation when Samardzija is traded, if not earlier, and pitches in a solid, but unspectacular way. A useful SP to have at the right price but in the end forgettable and replaceable. 15 - Matt Szczur - DFA'd within 18 months.

I'd honestly rather start Bogusevic than pay any salary to or give up anything of value for Morrison to be an outfielder. Yeah, I want to like Morrison, and I get that you're banking on him breaking out based on his age and pedigree, and I can even see how you might be able to shield him defensively a bit, but the defense being sooo bad makes it hard for me to get too excited. It's actually not that different to the Anderson ordeal. There's very clearly some upside, but the baseline is so low that it's hard to get excited about giving anything up to add him. Morrison at least has 3 years of control though. Vitters for Morrison? Marlins only need a stop gap 3B with Colin Moran in the pipeline. Vitters plays there a year then moves elsewhere. Cubs could flip Morrison for more value than Vitters? Lake, Villanueva, Olt, or Vitters. Cubs could let them have their pick. Morrison would be an interesting CO in the mold of Nick Markakis, but his defense would probably zap a lot of his value. Still, he's not a bad guy to target now and flip later on if he bounces back. As long as we don't give up too much.

How would you describe it, then? I didn't realize it was my responsibility to be pleased with the organization's path. What would you change? Have the Cubs go big on a 10 year contract for Cano? Go big on Choo? Sign Matt Garza? Flip Baez and Almora for Price? Then supplement all of that on the free agent market with guys like Infante and Arencibia in a desperate attempt to go in win-now mode? Because that's what you're asking for and it sounds an awfully lot like the Cubs under Jim Hendry. The issue with the Cubs under Jim Hendry was not that they handed out large contracts to good players. The problem with Jim Hendry and his "regime" was that the player development/minor league system was woefully neglected and that Jim Hendry wasn't always the best at knowing what good players were because of his refusal (and damn near pride in) to understand and use advanced analysis/statistics. That, and that once in a while he'd waste a few million on a crappy bench player or reliever or whatever, when those roles should have been able to have been filled with cheap minor leaguers or whatever. Of course. I really oversimplified the problems but I wouldn't say that they woefully neglected the minor league system, it just was not prioritized and quite frankly Hendry was never going to be given 5 years to develop one after 2003. The Cubs did develop a number of solid players in Castro, Samardzija, Colvin, Cashner, Castillo, Soto, Nolasco, Donaldson, Marmol, Marshall, etc. When you look back and reflect on it, the Cubs player development from 2005 to 2010 was pretty solid. It failed to (as of yet Castro still could) produce a bonafied franchise cornerstone and has some notable busts in Vitters and Pie, but all in all Hendry did a decent job developing players. Obviously as you mention not all of them were given a chance to succeed as a Cub, but I wouldn't call it woefully neglected the minor leagues. Hendry's problem was an inability to understand what makes baseball players good, and short-sightedness when it came to making moves to improve the club immediately ala Soriano - though you can't blame him. He was trying to keep his job.

How would you describe it, then? I didn't realize it was my responsibility to be pleased with the organization's path. What would you change? Have the Cubs go big on a 10 year contract for Cano? Go big on Choo? Sign Matt Garza? Flip Baez and Almora for Price? Then supplement all of that on the free agent market with guys like Infante and Arencibia in a desperate attempt to go in win-now mode? Because that's what you're asking for and it sounds an awfully lot like the Cubs under Jim Hendry. The Cubs aren't one huge splash - like Cano - away from contending. They may not even be two splashes away - like Cano and Price - without supporting them with 2 or 3 other mid level additions to support them. That's a lot to accomplish in FA and/or trades. It sucks but the Cubs should be patient in the FA market on better players. They found out the hard way last year with Jackson. Signing just Cano would have made us a bit better next year (say winning 75 games instead of 70) and a little bit better in 2015 (say winning 85 games instead of 80 or 80 instead of 75 games) but at the end the day he's a 30 year old middle infielder whose contract would have been a liability after the first 2-3 years. Offensive-minded 2B not named Jeff Kent don't age well. His contract would have limited the Cubs' room to maneuver in FA markets during the time period the Cubs are best suited to make a run for it - the last half of the decade. While I hate waiting as much as the next guy, the Cubbies simply are not in a position to win now. The cupboard was barren when Theo took over and a win-now strategy would have resulted in spending a bunch of money and still missing the playoffs. That money has rightfully been routed into developing a first-class assembly line prospect machine that hopefully will lay the foundation of a string of elite baseball teams.

Ditto. I'd hope at least half their value is with the bat. Fielding metrics remain trashy trash. Period.

$22 million over the next 7 years on a backloaded contract (and he can opt out once he becomes arbitration-eligible). If he ends up being a bust that's not an insignificant amount of money for another team to be stuck with. Even if he does end up being a good player, another team is going to want to give up less value since the players the other team would be giving up would be making $400k-$500k their first three years as opposed to $2M, $3M, $3M (or $3M, $3M, $3M if he hits the big leagues in 2016). If I were another GM, I'd insist on either giving a much lesser return or getting money with Soler. Not necessarily if you're really high on him and think he has a (making this up) 50% chance of becoming at least $10 million dollar player long-term (never mind the potential for more). So a 2.5 war player?

Balance it with cash/and or a bad short-term contract. His contract isn't that bad. I mean, when he's 29 (or 30?) he'll be making just $4m. If he only reaches a third of his potential, that's a bargain.

Fair point, but even if starts in Double A next year and makes his debut, he probably won't be even as good as Schierholtz until after 2015. You're right though. He's the obvious one to trade, though moving Alcantara and/or Villanueva for pitching prospects would make sense, albeit nowhere near the quality of one you could flip Soler for. Who else was highly interested in Soler before we signed him.

I absolute agree, which is why I put the time table 2-3 years before then when they're all 24/25ish and have had a season or so adjustment period.

Part of me thinks that strategy makes more sense. Soler prob won't be ready by '15, which appears to be the target for "turning the corner". I would think that Soler's on target for '15, what makes you think he isn't? On target to arrive, yes. But he (and definitely Edwards) will be a rookie in 2015. Baez and Bryant may make their debuts next year 2015 for them will also be an adjustment year. And Almora's timetable is probably a 2016 rookie year with a brief callup possibly in late 2015. While one of the big five will probably make their debut and hit the ground running like we've seen other young high-end high-ceiling talent, at least 3 or 4 of them are going to need a good 200 game adjustment period (if they make it at all). That puts our core prospect strength hitting on all cylinders in 2016-2018. We might be able to make a run at respectability in 2015 with the right moves, but I really envision the prospect-led success to come afterwards. I mean if they pan out Soler won't be hitting his prime (say age 27) until 2019ish, Baez in 2019/2020ish, Almora until 2021ish, and Bryant until 2019ish. Even Castro and Rizzo until 2017ish. That's not to say we can't compete before 2016/17, it just means it'll likely have to be externally driven (unless 2 or 3 of them go Mike Trout on us)

i was thinking a Christian Villanueva and Darwin Barney package for Gardner would be an interesting place to start a conversation.

Can I dream that it's Taijuan Walker for Samardzija?

Auburn gonna jump Bama. Especially with a win over Mizzou or SC As improbable ...

Bama/Auburn.... Most unbelievable finish ever?

Lawrie went .353/.415/.661 at an age where Bryant was still pickin goobers in college. Things don't always work out how you plan. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Are the* ... Pet peeve... The Jays best prospects are overwhelming pitchers, I'd love to take 2-3 off their hands with a decent low value high upside guy. As for Rasmus, he might be interesting in a three way deal where we flip him for a solid higher end SP prospect and settle for Toronto pitching prospects outside outside Sanchez/Stroman. Of course, you'd need to have the Rasmus flip in place before pulling the trigger. I don't object acquiring and keeping Rasmus, but not at the expense of acquiring significant pitching pieces

We're not playing for 2014 or even 2015. 2016... Maybe but the sweets spot window is 2016-2019. Samardzija only helps us there with a trade or extension. I love Beachy. Yes he's got Prioritis knock on Wood, but to me he's worth it.

So is the Brandon Beachy stuff legit? God id love nothing more to swap Samardzija for Beachy. Sweeten up the deal quite a bit and I wouldn't care.

The thing I like the least about Callaspo is that he doesn't fit the roster very well. He's able to play 2B and 3B, but he's better at 3B where we have at least 3 okay options. He's a switch hitter, but he hits better RH where we currently have 3 other options(2 once Barney is traded). He'd do the job as a bridge/platoon at 2B, but at a certain point he's only so much better than a Watkins/Murphy platoon at doing that. If the payroll is 100 million and we can still go get a quality OF and SP, then that's fine with me, especially since a good reliever is the true aim of adding Callaspo. But even if we're clearing Barney, Shark, and Schierholtz, an 85 million payroll is restrictive enough for me to worry that Callaspo would leave them unable to make more productive moves. why would we need to make productive moves? If the FO thinks 2014 is a lost cause, there is no reason to add production unless it's for 2015/2016. I don't think the FO really cares if we win 75 or 70. There is no need to spend to win 80.

He's also an egotistical moron, but that's beside the point.