The-Kris-Bryant

Olt now? I've not nearly given up on him, but I't put the chances of him threatening Rizzo's job at about zero. If Bryant gets moved off of 3B it'll be to the OF, where there's an actual need. If Vogelbach is OPSing 1.000 in AA or AAA late next year and Rizzo has somehow gotten worse, then we can start seriously talking about the possibility of him taking Anthony's job. Listen, Rizzo has been worth 2-3 fWAR over the past 365 days. He's just turned 24 and he's going through some growing pains. Even if he doesn't improve one bit from this day forward (which I find incredibly unlikely), he's still an positive asset at 1B. You obviously dislike Rizzo for some reason, and it's affecting your judgement. You couldn't be more wrong. I think Rizzo has a good chance of improving but if he does not improve (and I think he will) THEN someone like Olt or Bryant or Vogelbach could challenge him for the 1B job IF they continue to develop. While Bryant is probably destined to CO, I think there is a good chance that either Olt or Vogelbach's hit tool develops to the point where a .250/.320/.420 first basemans job is in jeopardy. Personally I like Rizzo and think he bounces back to a .270/.350/.475 kind of guy. I don't think his hit tool is a consistent .850 OPS one. I think that Olt, Bryant and Vogelbach all have that kind of hit tool. Now, The question is will they reach it. Vogelbach and Bryant, maybe. Olt? Not so much. And Vogelbach has a huge defensive gap to overcome as well. And there's a lot of "could" and "if" in what you've been saying, all of it very premature. Right which is why I originally said that Castro and Rizzo need to get their crap together because there is a healthy list of guys who could threaten boh of them if they don't bounce back.

You know what I meant.

Olt now? I've not nearly given up on him, but I't put the chances of him threatening Rizzo's job at about zero. If Bryant gets moved off of 3B it'll be to the OF, where there's an actual need. If Vogelbach is OPSing 1.000 in AA or AAA late next year and Rizzo has somehow gotten worse, then we can start seriously talking about the possibility of him taking Anthony's job. Listen, Rizzo has been worth 2-3 fWAR over the past 365 days. He's just turned 24 and he's going through some growing pains. Even if he doesn't improve one bit from this day forward (which I find incredibly unlikely), he's still an positive asset at 1B. You obviously dislike Rizzo for some reason, and it's affecting your judgement. You couldn't be more wrong. I think Rizzo has a good chance of improving but if he does not improve (and I think he will) THEN someone like Olt or Bryant or Vogelbach could challenge him for the 1B job IF they continue to develop. While Bryant is probably destined to CO, I think there is a good chance that either Olt or Vogelbach's hit tool develops to the point where a .250/.320/.420 first basemans job is in jeopardy. Personally I like Rizzo and think he bounces back to a .270/.350/.475 kind of guy. I don't think his hit tool is a consistent .850 OPS one. I think that Olt, Bryant and Vogelbach all have that kind of hit tool. Now, The question is will they reach it.

Well would you rather have 70 wins this year instead of 69 wins, keeping Dejesus and not have those lottery pick type IFA's in 7 years. I mean it's not affecting the present team. I really think they wanted to trade Dejesus in July and the injury messed that plan up.

Really interesting that he likes Baez's SS defense to wind up better than Castro's. And his comment that Bryant, Baez, Soler and Vogelbach have 40 HR power. Ie Rizzo and Castro better get their crap together. You keep insinuating that Rizzo is in danger of losing his job to Vogelbach, but I don't think that dog will hunt. Rizzo, imo, is only going to get better (he's still quite young, remember). I think he'd have to get worse before we got into "he batter watch out for Vogelbach" territory. I for one enjoy the irony of the guy who keeps harping on new toy syndrome (to the point of bumping his own threads to pat himself on the back) constantly ready to replace the productive young major leaguers at a moment's notice. Not really. I've never subscribed to the Castro Fan Club. I like Rizzo, but if Rizzo continues to play like he has for the the last 365 days through 2015 then Vogelbach Olt and Bryant could all threaten his job.

If you're not going to compete why expand the payroll just to not compete? Sign value guys we can trade for prospects like Hairston, but there's no need to spend money just to spend it. That was my biggest gripe about Jackson. We might have 1 year of him while the cubs are good. Perhaps we can dump him for something nice had he not sucked, but I always though he was crap.

Well dejesus isnt a 12 win player. I doubt the FO is looking at 2014 as a year where they expect to win over 85 or so games. They're probably looking at 2014 as a nice step to average before hoping to take the leap into contention in 2015. That's looking like it could be a pretty huge leap. Well by 2015 there's a chance either Baez or Bryant could help the offense and Rizzo and Castro will get their crap together. Add one decent FA signing this offseason and another the next, and it's possible. I think 2016 is the year they expect to be a 90 win team, with an outside chance in 2015

You would rather have had us win 77 games next year instead of 74 thereby picking 12th instead of a protected top 10 pick in 2015, and not signing two of those international prospects? I'm all for redistributing cash to the farm system when we know we won't compete. I'd prefer the Cubs could afford something which should be a piddling expense for a team like this instead of trading off a reasonably valuable player effectively for cash. Plus you can know you won't compete all the damn time if you put a middling team on the field. The Cuba have a budget just like everyone else. When they overspend like crazy in IFA signings, they have to shift money around. Saving a few mil on Dejesus and letting him go isnt going to change the trajectory of the organization and nor was he expected to be a part of it. We are probably gonna get a decent return like Pineyro

Well dejesus isnt a 12 win player. I doubt the FO is looking at 2014 as a year where they expect to win over 85 or so games. They're probably looking at 2014 as a nice step to average before hoping to take the leap into contention in 2015.

You would rather have had us win 77 games next year instead of 74 thereby picking 12th instead of a protected top 10 pick in 2015, and not signing two of those international prospects? I'm all for redistributing cash to the farm system when we know we won't compete.

Really interesting that he likes Baez's SS defense to wind up better than Castro's. And his comment that Bryant, Baez, Soler and Vogelbach have 40 HR power. Ie Rizzo and Castro better get their crap together.

Olt has a 411 on-base plus slugging percentage after twenty two games as a cub.... Seriously shiny new toy syndrome!

Gordon Beckham? How is he similar? He was an elite college bat although in a very deep draft college bat wise. Prior to the draft scouts raved about his power potential and hitting ability. He had quite a bit of pedigree too. His last year he smashed 28 homers, hit .411, had more walks than K's and an OPS over 1300. Granted no one expected him to stay at SS but there were a lot of comparisons for him to Evan Longoria. After the draft BA had him pegged at #20 overall in their top 100, which seems like a good spot for Bryant. He didn't pan out. Not saying that they're super similar but there are some parallels. Bryant has a fantastic chance of reaching his potential -- as high a chance as anyone just drafted two months earlier -- but he's far from a lock from becoming even an average player.

Granted its even more of a hitters league, but his Hi A line at least puts the two on even footing result wise in Hi A/Double A. For Kris Bryant we have the Jeff Clement's, Michael Aubrey's, Gordon Beckham's who were all nearly highly as thought of two months after their draft. For Almora and Soler we have a ton of other cases. I mean it's highly improbable that none of them become an elite level player, but it's also highly probable that two of them become fringe-average or worse players.

Well there are comps of guys in a similar position that don't pan out. I mean Brandon Wood is a great comparison for Baez results wise. Of course both have similar tools in some ways and very different in others, but even doing what Baez has done in AA can often be followed by a poor major league career.

Well someone has to throw the rock.

Fair enough move Rizzo to 1 then. I'm just not a huge fan.

2nd behind Rizzo. Absolutely not. Rizzo's probably at best a .280/.350/.500 guy (though one or two years > that). Baez could easily be a .280/.330/.550 guy. Maybe more if you buy into the newfound walk kool aid. Personally I think Bryant's hitting ability is better than both. I'd go something like this for pure hitting potential 1. Bryant 2. Baez 3a. Vogelbach 3b. Rizzo 3c. Soler 6. Olt 7. Almora 8. Castro 9. Vitters (I think when it's all said and done he'll be a MLB starter) 10. Alcantara Although if you include everything my rankings would be: Baez Almora Bryant Castro Olt Solar Rizzo Alcantara Vitters Vogelbach

Javier Baez now has 30 HRs on the season, our shortstops have combined for 31 HRs the last three years. Javier Baez now has 46 HRs over the last two years, our SS's have combined for 48 HRs over the last 7 years and 52 HRs over the last 8.

Correct. Now go compare the rate to football...

10% of the worst teams made the playoffs the next year? Seems pretty high-variance to me. Not that it means much other than we're terrible often, but I think three of those teams were Cubs. Well you just labeled a team in the top three quarters "one of the worst"

The teams with the best record in the AL and the second-best in the NL were projected to finish fourth in their divisions by the consensus of statistical projection models. Of course, now everyone *knew* that the Pirates and Red Sox were going to be awesome and they totally weren't in that ".500 with little chance" category before the season. Just 15 of the 146 teams who finished in the bottom four of their league made the playoffs the following year since the advent of the wild card. No one in their right mind would describe that as a high rate of a quick turnaround nor should it be used to argue, in your words high variance.

In reality, it's not. Major League Baseball is not the National Football League.

If he pans out he's Jeff Cirillo or Joe Randa with his defense. Nothing wrong with that.

He is going to be a better major league hitter than Anthony Rizzo when they're both between the ages of 26-29. He's then going to go the Mo Vaughn route. On a side note, Mo Vaughn is only 45... That makes me feel kinda young :)