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UMFan83

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Everything posted by UMFan83

  1. UMFan83
    Someone who gambles tell me how I can throw a 20 on that. Okay I figured out how to throw $20 at +485 for 224.5 yards. Last time I felt good about a Bears odds was when Eberflus was something like +400 for the head coach job. But I didn't place any bets then. Leggo. Good luck! It’s a bit windy but probably not greatly enough to effect the passing game.
  2. UMFan83
    This means Harry's debut may come against.... the Patriots
  3. UMFan83
    I don't know how gambling odds works, does that mean if I wager $100 on Fields throwing for 250 yards I would win $750 ? Because if so that seems like a pretty smart bet, I mean, pretty great payout, I think he's a better 13.3% chance to hit that Yep, that's what it means
  4. UMFan83
    Speaking of odds Fields throws for a "big" total tonight +750 that he throws 250 yards is insane.
  5. UMFan83
    Lots of discussion today about the NCAA wanting to expand the NCAA tournament. I just don't see how this is a good idea. One format I've seen proposed is a 96 team tournament where the 32 conference champions get a bye, and the 64 at large teams all play a play-in game to advance to the round of 64. Funny thing is, they say they want to do this to reward the high and mid-major programs who put a lot of money into their basketball programs, but I can't see how having half of all at-large teams eliminated (likely 90%+ made up of high and mid-majors) before the real 1st round is much of a reward. There is literally nothing broken about the NCAA tournament. While its large enough that almost every college program has a chance to make the tournament (sorry schools like Chicago State and New Hampshire), its small enough that it feels like an accomplishment if your team makes it.
  6. UMFan83
    Fields is getting his first 300 yard passing game tonight. Another 100 yards is getting dropped. For a normal team, they'd win in a beautiful offensive performance, perfectly building off of last week and Justin Fields will never turn back on his road to QB eliteness. But this is the Bears, and a QB. I won't count on the Bears winning until they actually start playing winning football more consistently, this team as constructed isn't capable of that. I want to believe the plan is to slowly give Fields more and more to do each week, assuming he is up to the challenge (and dependent on game situation). I still expect a run first game plan with 18-25 pass attempts from Fields. The only way he gets more is if Washington takes a good size lead and the Bears have to throw, similar to Pittsburgh last year which is his career high in passing yards with 291. I'm a bit nervous for this one. Not because the outcome is all that meaningful, but coming off a solid performance on Sunday, I really want to see another step forward, even if its small, and am scared about the possibility of seeing a regression even though its entirely possible and won't change his outlook too much.
  7. UMFan83
    Kind of crazy that the Phillies have played 14 straight road games - the first of which was the start of their sweep at the hands of the Cubs. 6 game scheduled road trip, 3 game series moved from the beginning of the season to the end, 2 WC round games, now Games 1-2 of the NLDS.
  8. UMFan83
    I remember some of the 1991 World Series but I did not remember that in the 8th inning of a scoreless game 7 both teams had the bases loaded and 1 out and both hit into double plays to end the inning. That much have been a nerve-wracking game for both fan bases. That game 7 was unreal. First World Series as a kid I watched from game 1 to game 7. It's definitely the first World Series I remember watching. I don't remember the Reds/A's series at all but remember Puckett's HR in game 6 and Jack Morris in Game 7. I can still hear the CBS theme in my head.
  9. UMFan83
    this got me thinking about the biggest championship probability added hits, and i found this https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2016/11/all-time-most-pivotal-plays-in-the-world-series/ the rajai davis home run is 3rd, zobrist's single is 15 Davis is the only one in the top 11 positive CPA plays whose team did not win the title. The next-most positive play that did not ultimately result in a title was a game-tying two-run double in the 8th by the Red Sox' Dom DiMaggio in Game 7 of the '46 World Series against St. Louis, which was bettered by #13 on the list, Harry Walker's game-winning hit in the bottom of that same inning. I remember some of the 1991 World Series but I did not remember that in the 8th inning of a scoreless game 7 both teams had the bases loaded and 1 out and both hit into double plays to end the inning. That much have been a nerve-wracking game for both fan bases.
  10. UMFan83
    You think so? He seemed a little wild and gave up a really hard hit double by Freeman.
  11. UMFan83
    Interesting that the line has shifted to a pick 'em, or Bears -0.5 in some places. I know Washington's best CB is likely to be out tomorrow so that may account for some of that shift
  12. UMFan83
    He had 2 slides that I remember. One he actually did what looked like a real slide and I think I commented on it in the game thread, but the second one was your standard popup slide that has drawn so many flags. Looked like the Vikings were very conscious of this and backed off quickly.
  13. UMFan83
    1. Yes, absolutely 2. Yes. 3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff 4. Yes! 5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans. I was just about to say in what world is Morel an equivalent trade for Devers. I get that Devers only has 2 years of control left but he's been like a 4-5 win player and has been a fringe MVP candidate 2 of the last 3 seasons while Morel is a nice surprise and we're talking about him as a utility role player next year.
  14. UMFan83
  15. UMFan83
    Whoops that didn’t work I blame TT
  16. UMFan83
    And Kimbrel is not on the Dodgers postseason roster (at least for the NLDS). We got a guy that missed the season with TJ and a scrappy dude that hits with a wet noodle and still won that trade.
  17. UMFan83
    Yeah...I don't have the football acumen that you do (based on your years of posts), so I need it to tell me things rather than confirm. I understand there's definitely bias there and potential misleading conclusions drawn by these videos, but most of the breakdowns make a ton of sense in terms of how they explain the defense, explain the routes, explain the blocking, etc that I find them very valuable and helpful in increasing my own acumen.
  18. UMFan83
    Would agree, but Schwarber not singlehandedly donging the Cards out of the playoffs and Pujols/Molina somehow ending their careers with base hits are too far out of line with my preferred outcomes. It's reassuring to get confirmation we aren't in a dream/simulation I suppose. Though again, if the Padres and Guardians take care of business I'm gonna at least still wonder. Knowing you all these years, I think your brain works too rationally to allow it to dream of the most optimal scenario.
  19. UMFan83
  20. UMFan83
    I've been obsessed with all these different breakdown videos. Here's a couple from Brian Baldinger
  21. UMFan83
    Week 5 PFF grades: Interesting about Fields, seems like a big chunk of his grade was due to running and his passing was mediocre. Defense: Career game for the much maligned Vildor Also apparently Braxton Jones is PFF's highest rated rookie tackle after week 5.
  22. UMFan83
    Feel strangely confident about Penn State. I surely wouldn't if it was at Happy Valley, but Michigan has not lost a home game to a team that isn't Ohio State or Michigan State with Harbaugh as coach, outside of the 2020 season that I'm going to completely ignore because I can. They've beaten several good teams too.
  23. UMFan83
    Kimbrel - imploded with White Sox; on the bubble for Dodgers LDS roster this year Robertson - injured before LDS Effross - Injured before LDS Givens - 13.50 ERA in WC round loss Chafin, Tepera and Chris Martin have done well for the most part though, though only Martin (and possibly Kimbrel) is on a postseason roster.
  24. UMFan83
    This is like when Dempster injured himself hopping over the dugout fence
  25. UMFan83
    I agree. And that’s fine I guess. The more we see Jed in action the more we see where he is different. The Athletic article I posted had a line about how Theo was more of a gunslinger. Jed is more analytical and careful. Jed removes emotion from the equation. He’ll extend someone like Nico who is young and has productive years ahead of him but won’t touch a 30 year old catcher who was one of the heart and souls of this team for the last several years. He’s not going to go out throw $300 million over 10 years for Judge just because he needs a big bat. On the surface I get where he’s coming from but I also wish we could occasionally take a big swing being the large market club that we are
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