UMFan83
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Everything posted by UMFan83
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Maddux to announce retirement on Monday at meetings
UMFan83 replied to PrimeTime's topic in General Baseball Talk
Pretty neat that his 2nd or 3rd last appearance (I can't remember) was able to be at Wrigley. Unfortunately for us Cubs fans, it came at a bad time, but it was one last chance to see Maddog before he rode off into the sunset. I honestly think he could still pitch like an above average 4/5 starter for another 5 years if he wanted to. -
As Meph mentioned the Cubs need guys around who can eat some innings and Marquis has a rubber arm and production as a #5 which are the qualities the Cubs need. For the Cubs rotation it looks like they are after, he doesn't have a role but for teams with lesser rotations (if they acq'd Peavy) he has more value for other teams looking to be a #5 starter with 180+IP. I've never considered him to be a nice guy based on his actions of the past, crying about not making the post-season roster in STL as well as not being able to co-exist with Duncan and Mazzone. You prob. have to ask B. Miles from a media standpoint, but I found him to be a very selfish player based on his past actions. Who does co-exist with the St. Louis coaching staff though?
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I know Florida is clearly better than Alabama, but Alabama isn't horrible and they've been getting slighted all week despite being 12-0 and going through the SEC regular season unscathed. I have a feeling the game will be closer than people think with a sort of "everyone is doubting us" effect. I still think Florida will win though. I'll say 31-27 FLA
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http://www.suntimes.com/sports/deluca/1315528,CST-SPT-deluca05.article Could have put it to the test if you offered the guy arb
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I'll always remember the CG shutout against I think the Pirates in April/May of 07. The final score was 1-0 and all us Cub fans were like "wtf" at the time. The the second half of the season happened. He seems like a nice guy though, and I love his NY accent.
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Hank White
UMFan83 replied to Mephistopheles's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I think its one of those things where Henry is either going to resign with the Cubs or retire. So I don't think Hank or the Cubs were really making his status a huge priority at the moment. And then the events of this week happened so its even less of a priority. -
Thanks for stopping in Bruce as usual. If you have a minute....you mentioned the sale is not a holdup for the Cubs correct? So whenever someone uses that as an excuse its not to be believed in your opinion? So the Cubs are operating like business as usual then?
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Poor Andy. I was cheering for Ball State because of him. But I really like the Buffalo story. So congrats to them.
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Just to give you an idea of the Cubs situation, from SI.com's Paul Heyman: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/12/05/heyman.wintermeetings/1.html
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Veterans Committee Picks Joe Gordon; Santo Misses HOF Again
UMFan83 replied to Garwilly's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
MLB.com has an article up saying announcement will be made today. Fingers crossed. Where do you see that? This is what I got from the MLB.com site: -
A-Rod to play for Dominican Republic in WBC
UMFan83 replied to OleMissCub's topic in General Baseball Talk
So much for any potential for legitimacy. -
VORP: Roberts - 47.8 DeRosa - 36.2 EqA: Roberts - .295 DeRosa - .291 Now these measures are not perfect (for one defensive value isn't measured) but its not clear at all that DeRosa had a better year than Roberts. FWIW, Roberts had a higher VORP than anyone on the Cubs last year.
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I'm sorry to hear that. (I know, I know 2005)
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SO I WIN?!? (Just kidding)
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I don't know why people get so upset that Kyle argues things. That's what makes this board fun is to be able to argue with people with different viewpoints. And (OMG) we've managed to have like 4 pages of discussion about Jake Peavy IN the Jake Peavy thread.
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Reasonable projection: Dempster reverts at least halfway back between 2008 and previous norms Harden pitches his career average for innings pitched Peavy pitches his career road average Zambrano and Lilly have years very similar to their last two. Why is it reasonable to predict that Peavy is going to pitch to his career road average. Isn't there are small advantage to pitching at home that shows up in the splits (assuming you don't play in Coors or Chase Field or something)
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The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think". What you call "worst case scenario," I call "reasonable projection." If Dempster has a 60% chance of regressing significantly and Harden has a 50% chance of missing over half the season with injuries, and Peavy has a 40% chance of matching his career road numbers, as if he was going to be pitching on the road all season and enjoy no home field advantage and Zambrano has a 40% chance of going through the season battling arm injuries again, what does it make the odds that all 4 of those things happen?
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I don't think Kyle is saying that the Cubs wouldn't have the best 1-5, but that the Cubs wouldn't have as much dominance at the top of the rotation as people here think they would have. Besides, after the last 2 post seasons, who really cares about 1-5 rotations. We can't even get to our 4th starter in the playoffs...
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Instead of looking at 1-5 best rosters, lets look at best 3 from last years rotations and see how they compare against the Cubs assuming they got Peavy: Cubs: Peavy Harden Zambrano Red Sox: Lester Matsuzaka Beckett DBacks: Webb Haren Johnson Rays: Kazmir Shields Garza Brewers: Sabathia Sheets Gallardo (this is hypothetical) Dodgers: Lowe Billingsley Kiroda Mets: Santana Pelfrey Maine? Angels: Lackey Saunders Santana Blue Jays: Halladay Marcum Litsch You're right in that there are several teams on the level of the Cubs, enough that they aren't "clearly" the best 1-3 rotation in baseball, but it stacks up pretty favorably against all the teams there.
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Don't know the reason, I just know I have a hard time projecting dominance from a guy being removed from the only environment he's been dominant in. I expect him to be a very good starter, but I think there's going to be a lot of disappointed Cubs fans when his ERA looks more like the 3.6 of his career road totals than the sub-3.00's he's been posting. I don't see it, I see 04,05,07 Peavy when he was at his best on the road and at home. I'm not saying he's going to put up a sub-3.00 ERA with the Cubs, but I'd be more surprised with a 3.60 ERA than a 2.95 ERA.
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Fun with arbitrary endpoints. 2003: 4.59 2002: 6.23 I'm much more inclined to say 04, 05, and 07 are the "flukes" (if we must cherrypick) than 02, 03, 06 and 08. The career totals tell a story that can't be brushed off as easily as rumors of arm problems. I didn't include 2002 and 2003 because they were the first 2 years in his career, one of which he made only 17 starts, and they weren't played at Petco Park, nullifying any H/R comparison not because they didn't fit my argument. Besides, in 2002 he had a 3.57 ERA at home and a 4.59 ERA on the road in 2003 and 2.56 ERA at home and a 6.23 ERA on the road in 2002, without the benefit of cozy dimensions and marine layer. So is the problem that he can't pitch on the road in general then?
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I agree on the other points, but I think you are undervaluing Peavy. Road ERA by season 2008: 4.28 2007: 2.57 2006: 4.57 2005: 2.98 2004: 2.33 It should also be noted that in 2006 and 2008 Peavy was rumored to be pitching through pain and injuries. So which is the fluke 06 and 08 or 04, 05 and 07? Besides, its not like Wrigley is a launching pad most days. The NL West might have a lot of pitcher friendly parks, but its not like the NL Central is Bandbox Central. According to ESPN.com's Park Factors (as it pertains to runs scored) Chase Field: 2/30 Coors: 3/30 AT&T Park: 11/30 Dodger Stadium: 29/30 Petco: 30/30 Average: 15th Great American: 7/30 Wrigley Field: 8/30 Minute Maid Park: 14/30 Miller Park 22/30 Busch Stadium: 23/30 PNC Park: 27/30 Average: 17th I know this is really simple analysis, but point stands.
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Nice work Len. Looking forward to you calling many more Cubs division championship clinchers, and then covering the Cubs for 3 more games afterwards on Comcast.
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Marquis and Marshall? Maybe? I'm still crossing my fingers that JH brings Wood back. He would make all the difference, wouldn't he? Since the Cubs non-tendered him, he can't be signed till May. MLB updated that rule in the latest agreement. They still have a window to sign him. Eh, I hate changes. Man, even I knew that Ping.
