There’s many reasons why the outcome might be different this year:
1. If you believe in the impact of a manager, the Cubs supposedly upgraded
2. Last year the Cubs fairly significantly underperformed their pythag record. Even if they played exactly like last year they should hypothetically have a better record.
3. The vaunted farm system is likely to have several guys ready contribute this year that were not ready last year
4. The usual luck related stuff like injuries can play a role in outcomes being different (so far so bad there)
5 The potential to do more at the deadline this year, with the assumption that the Cubs are more clearly a buyer
Other things I’m missing I’m sure.