UMFan83
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Everything posted by UMFan83
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Miggy was taking early BP today. He is eligible to come off the DL tomorrow. -
Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?
UMFan83 replied to Cubbie Swagger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Are you surprised when you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads for 8 of them? In the 96-01 Yankees case, its flipping it 15 times and landing on heads 14 times. For the Giants, its flipping 9 times and getting heads 9 times (or 10 in a row if you count the 2014 WC game as a round). Sure its possible in a 50/50 environment, but its improbable (probability of flipping 9 heads in a row is 0.2%, 10 times in a row 0.01%) -
Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?
UMFan83 replied to Cubbie Swagger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Thread title: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good? Comment in thread from OP Cubbie Swagger, who you crappin? -
Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?
UMFan83 replied to Cubbie Swagger's topic in General Baseball Talk
It's a slightly weighted crapshoot IMO. Smart people have been trying to figure out the secret formula for winning in October for years and pretty much every theory has been debunked. Great pitching? Sounds great until you remember the 90's Braves. Great hitting? the 90's Indians are one of many examples of great teams that went cold at the wrong time. 2001 Mariners won 116 games, led the MLB in RS and RA and barely got past the ALDS and lost the ALCS in 5. In 2008 there was a lot of talk of a secret sauce that involved power pitchers, good closer and good defense as being the key to winning in October. I believe the Cubs were well regarded in all 3 areas and got swept out of the NLDS. But every time I am convinced its a 100% crapshoot, the 90's Yankees, 2010-2014 Giants, even the stinking Cardinals of recent years seem to have succeeded more often than you'd expect in a crapshoot while teams like the 2000's Twins and A's have failed more than you'd expect to in a crapshoot. So I think there are small things that give a team a higher probability of winning playoff series, but even then its just a weighted crapshoot. -
Just for fun...through 30 games: 1906 Cubs (116-36) - 21-9 +58 RD 2001 Mariners (116-46) - 23-7 +55 RD 1998 Yankees (114-48) - 23-7 +48 RD 2016 Cubs - 24-6 +102 RD
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That was not a clown move bro
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EDIT: To their credit, the rest of the posters are shooting this guy down, but still. What is the message board? I have a hard time finding a good Pirates forum
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I am willing to bet he will match up favorably to almost every team's #3. But I would like some insurance in case he's hurt/falters. Hammel and Hendricks are fine regular season guys and might even work in the postseason again, but they are already starting to struggle to go 6 IP. Last year in the playoffs Hammel and Hendricks started 4 games and failed to go 5 in any of them, which continued a 2nd half trend of struggling to give innings. I know its splitting hairs to worry about the 4th and 5th starters on a possible 110 win team that is leading the MLB in runs allowed this year, but I want to eliminate as many potential weak spots as possible.
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Cubs season OBPs Fowler .462 LaStella .444 Szczur .441 Rizzo .413 Zobrist .406 Bryant .383 Russell .361 Baez .333 Ross .327 Heyward .317 (impressive since he's hitting like .200 with no pop) Montero .316 Soler .274 ( :( ) League average OBP is .319 and only 12 teams in baseball have a higher team OBP than Montero. OK I cheated, there are 3 teams with a .317 OBP but close enough to Miggy.
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I want a championship more, but I also want to win as many games as possible, so I say replay them no matter what even if we have to start Cahill in them instead of someone like Jake.
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What 3 time zones would there be? The traditional schools are all in the central time zone, and WVU is already in the league as an eastern time zone team. Cincinnati and UConn would both also be eastern teams. Well, if you read the messages I quoted, the discussion was including Boise State or BYU in the Big 12, which would represent Mountain, Central and Eastern Time zones. Right but you direct quoted me so I was confused.
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Accuweather seems to be optimistic with no forecasted rain from 7-8 and 9-11, but that probably just means less than 50% chance. Tomorrow it seems like the rain will stop before gametime. Weather this entire week looks shitty. Looks like we will have played 1/4 of our home schedule with only maybe 2 good weather games.
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One more White Sox note: http://i.imgur.com/ZOu7acZ.png I know their response would still be that the NL is a way inferior league or something but funny because last week they were crying about our easy schedule.
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This is your jealous White Sox fans update: The Cubs play has officially ended the "Cubs haven't played anyone good" argument. Unfortunately "omg they are the Cubs they will blow it just like 1969" and "the AL is the far superior league, if the Cubs and Sox switched schedules they would be even or the Sox ahead in record (editors note: despite the Cubs having a ~+70 lead in run differential)" are still completely valid theories for Sox fans Unfortunately it seems the the Cubs will only be validated in the meth addled eyes of White Sox fans if we defeat them in a baseball contest. This has been your jealous Sox fans update.
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Half of me wants feign disappointment about Jake giving up 3 runs (so far) and the other half is somehow actually disappointed that Jake can't give up 0 or 1 runs every single start.
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That's a bit disingenuous of an end point since it includes a five day break for an injured wrist. Disingenuous end points are kind of my thing :)
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Heyward is 1 for his last 28 AB since his 4 hit "breakout game"
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57 pitches and counting. Not liking this version of Jake
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I'm fine with them calling today an "everything's falling the Cubs way" game. 4 of our runs scored on Kalish's bloop hit and Russells ball on the line. Although even still the Cubs influence their luck by getting runners on base early and often, working the count and getting starters out of the game early.
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I haven't checked yet but I'm guessing the theme for rival fans after this game is "look how lucky the Cubs are with their fluke hits and bloops that barely land fair. Eventually the luck will even out and they will come back to earth"
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Rondon: Come on guys I'm arbitration eligible after this year
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Yep. 16 pitches on Wed, 4 on Thu and 10 yesterday. Jake is pitching tomorrow so he will not be needed
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Ok time to make Rondons appearance meaningless with down RD ball
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No bloop luck that time
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Mmm. 2 perfect strikes
