JudasIscariotTheBird

Just based off of KenPom, the Tar Heels are easily the most vulnerable. But just eyeballing the games, I'd agree with you.

Eh. JMU played fine, I guess. I think Duke obliterates them. That was a really really ugly game.

I don't think I've ever seen a basketball team look more inept than the Bagers thus far. 12 turnovers and at least 8 missed LAY UPS. And the first half isn't over. ...make that 13 turnovers.

And that's the reason that PEDs need to be banned and rigorously tested for (or, alternately, made legal). I don't buy that argument at all. There very obviously could be generational talents that were in MLB, and they wound up having so-so careers AND were suspected of using PEDs merely because they played in a juicer era, and all while they played it by the rules. It's a cancer diagnosis short of tragic.

Frank Thomas?! How can you so brazenly accuse an enhancement pill salesman of steroid use?

Oh damn! Signed McKinney! 4 years, 17M per. Kinda hyped about the Packers now.

Packers signing Josh Jacobs for about 10 mil per and releasing Aaron Jones. I suppose it makes sense, but I didn't see that coming.

Imagine seeing her swing and having the balls to pull this stunt. Good lord guys suck.

Huh? Knowing for certain that you need a FG for a tie (or even a win) or that you need a TD to keep the game going is a huge advantage. Now, if that advantage is enough to make up for the fact that just scoring two TDs on your first two possesions becomes a win...I'm not certain. Thinking about it more, it's probably not enough to want to defer. Probably depends on a lot of match-up dependent things. The rule is horrible, regardless. Just do the college system.

https://twitter.com/ArtButSports/status/1756840892403445911?t=A7M8dENjSyuG4K5VyOhxXg&s=19

None of my long shots hit (although Deebo was close) but all of my short odds hit, so I won 1.5k on the bonus whoring. At the end of regulation, I was tied with 5 other people for first, and was winning 54k in the Underdog contest (which was best case scenario). When Pacheco passed MVSin fantasy scoring in overtime, I was now tied with 40 people instead, so I only won 14k. Still, a pretty good outcome. Drank some (Pacheco) processco in semi-celebration. Hosting a SB party makes it tough a sweat SB bets.

I needed to clear 2K in bets to get 1K in bonus bets, so my standard bets were: 500 on under 51.5 at -194 500 on under 6.5 Aiyuk targets at -115 500 on over 16.5 Watson total yards at -110 500 on under 9.5 1st quarter total points at -115 And my bonus bets: 250 on Rice first TD scorer at +1000 250 on Deebo first TD scorer at +900 500 on a parlay: Pacheco under 67.5 rushing, Kelce under 6.5 receptions, Aiyuk under 4.5 receptions at +540 Fingers crossed!

Yep, the bigger the dog, the better the bonus bet is.

Whoa. I just got a text message from "Allie at Caesars Sportsbook" who wants me to come back. (I maxed out a bonus offer there a while back, and lost all the underdog bets I made...some of my syndicate's bets hit, but they don't know that.) She's offering more bonus bets, and free rooms in Vegas or Blackhawk. I've never had this happen before. Looks like I might be betting more than I thought.

The line is pretty interesting this year. The models and stats like the 49ers (who were one of the most efficient teams of all time, per play, by some metrics) but the Chiefs are clearly in better form (another way of expressing recenty bias). In general, it think it is a fool's errand to pretend to know better than the bookies, and they probably have it right, again. I have a lineup in the finals of a bestball contest. 400 entries remain. A lot of entires don't have a "full" lineup, as many of their players aren't even playing in the Super Bowl. First place is 150K, but the players I have that are still live are all very popular (apart from MVS and Jennings, so I'm rooting hard for them, and against players I don't have, namely, Purdy, Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and Watson) A few other line ups have all of the same active players left as me, so I can't take 1st place on my own. After some back-of-the-envelope guesses, I think the most I could win is around 60K if things go perfectly. Around 7K would be pretty good aside from very unlikely outcomes. So, I think I'm going to make an account on FanDuel (which I have yet to do) and take them up on their 5 dollar deposit = 150 in bonus bets (for new accounts). And as a tip to all you degens out there, you can maximize your returns with offers like these by betting outrageous longshots. This article lays out the math (it's talking about free bets instead of bonus bets, but the same logic applies): https://unabated.com/articles/risk-free-bet-profit-strategy So I'll bet some silly parlays on crazy props revolving around the above named "root against" players so I should have something fun to sweat no matter how the game progresses. Also, in general, the prop markets tend to be the least efficient. You often find more negative expected-value bets there on average, but you're also much more likely to find actual value hidden away in those lines. Prop lines are designed more to entice action than they are to be accurate, at least compared to the more heavily bet things like moneylines and spreads.

Well, FanDuel probably has some culpability. This guy was depositing and spewing money like mad. The stories are nearly unbelievable. For instance, he was entering 10k contests where he was playing against just two other people (if you aren't colluding with a partner in these things, you're already doing it wrong) and he was picking players that weren't even playing that day! It was insane. But yes, the Jags shouldn't get their money back from FanDuel. FanDuel just needs to be better regulated.

Ridley commenting is fun, but this entire Jags/FanDuel story was always weird, got weirder, and I think there's a chance things get even more weird. A lot of the bets the thief made were tantamount to dumping.

I'd agree, apart from a playoff bestball lineup I have that is set up to do some real damage. I got three entries into the finals of a contest on Underdog. Only one of them has a shot at first (150k), and it's going to be uber-chalk...apart from having MVS and Jauan Jennings. I'll give more details when they release all the lineups that advanced later this week. Then I'll have a better idea of what my chances are. But a Mahomes/CMC/Pachecco/Kelce/Rice/MVS/Jennings lineup (where only 1 QB, 1RB, 2 WR/TE and 1 Flex count) covers a LOT of squares. Because of the way the contest was structured and the ADP was, large SF stacks were very difficult to draft and then advance from the first week (since they didn't play/score points).

Nope. You have to have the descipline to wait until this happens 10 times. THEN you bet the house. Gambling 101.

Funny. Aren't you the guy that challenged me to a 1k gamble-off and then ghosted/changed his name when I accepted? Are you going to challenge me to a fight next? What's your new login going to be?