JudasIscariotTheBird
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Everything posted by JudasIscariotTheBird
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David Ross sucks and GR was always right to hate him
JudasIscariotTheBird replied to soccer10k's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
...wasn't Ross a MLB catcher for multiple seasons? Like, IRL? -
Mind you, 22.2 is closer to 4:1 than 3:1. For context, Fangraphs has the Cubs as 56% likely to beat the Marlins. I know Tom up there said the Marlins are taylor made for the Cubs, but there are some stats that say the exact opposite. The Marlins have one of the worst chase rates in baseball. They will also be facing two starting pitchers that stay within the zone more than any other top-tier starting pitchers in baseball. If I cared about things anymore, I'd ne nervous. 56% seems right to me.
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So I browsed through this pretty fluffy preview of the playoffs that ESPN had: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29957774/mlb-playoffs-preview-everything-need-know-16-team-postseason But what really surprised me was the odds they offered up on particular match ups. 63.9% likely to beat the Marlins seems kinda high. Its a 3 game series, ffs. But only 33.9% to beat the Padres and 22.2% likely to beat the Dodgers seems absolutely bonkers. I also don't know why the Cubs would be a 57.7% fav over the Reds, either. Why is ESPN so dumb?
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Via reddit:
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Got to play 18 holes yesterday. I got my driver straighted out, but I was playing at a fairly tough course, and I didn't adjust to the fast greens...well, ever. Shot a 57 on the front nine. But then I just started striping everything for 5 holes. 3-putt bogey on a par 4, par on a par 3, birdie on the toughest hole on the course, a double-dog-leg, 530 yard par-5 with a huge water hazard on the dogleg side. I just hit, for me, 3 perfect shots to put myself 8 feet from the hole. Next hole I crushed the bajesus out of the ball with two shots to give myself a 30 yard chip on a par 5 for my third shot. Chip nearly rolled off the other side of the green, and then three putted. 45 on the back 9. Pretty happy about it.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/?ex_cid=rrpromo I think ELO is a dumb way to do anything NFL related, but its a data point. (Brees is better than Brady.)
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The Falcons just...wow. The way they covered that onside kick would make me think they are TRYING to lose.
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Week 2: NY Giants @ Chicago BEARS Home Opener
JudasIscariotTheBird replied to raw's topic in Other Sports
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Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana
JudasIscariotTheBird replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=1550&p=185805&hilit=Eloy#p185805 Btw, this thread is both amazing and brutal. I was going to quote the most painful stuff, but it was too numerous, and also too sad. -
Really? You seem way way more confident about that than I think anyone can reasonably pretend to be. The division is wrapped up within all reason, it's time to put preparing for the playoffs ahead of winning games. Part one of that is seeing if Kimbrel still has it when the pressure is on. Part two will be getting Chafin and Q as many innings as possible. Ah. I didn't consider the "this game doesn't matter, we need to see...how Kimbrel does in high leverage situations" slant. That's completely counter intuitive, to be generous, but I get what you are saying.
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Really? You seem way way more confident about that than I think anyone can reasonably pretend to be.
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viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3464&p=417974#p417974 Pretty impressive accidental overlap.
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I mean, I'm a cold-hearted automaton, and I'm pretty sure that's not right.
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I missed game 7 because of anniversary dinner, but I could tell that things were going well. Outdoor dining (my first restaurant experience since March), and a rooftop bar 3 blocks away was going absolutely bonkers. A nice distraction from the only other couple at the place we were at, who were making out like that couple on the bus from Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. Feeding themselves even. They were even older than us. Maybe it was a third marriage or something. Anyways, go Nugs.
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That the guys with the best results in the league do not often replicate their historic success afterwards should not be a surprise. You would do a little better to just look at average production over careers league-wide...which would have its own selection bias because only largely successful players have long careers...which is probably where the "elite pass rushers age well" myth came from in the first place.
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The Nuggets might be the one local team I'm considering adopting as my main.
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I'll say this about the Bears. Win or lose, the absolute sickest shiz happens at the end of their games.
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I would argue that Robinson is actually elite, but the rest seems about right.
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Great, now I'm going to have to check out this Howie thing.
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Not much time this morning, but it was nice to get a win. Lester is clearly declining. Nothing but feeble smoke and mirrors. But give us a good outing here, and all is forgiven.
