JudasIscariotTheBird

First Cub game I watched since the Cubs last came to Denver. Pretty enjoyable, apart from the fact that my girls were ten times more interested in the wave during the 7th inning than anything else that happened.

Pretty strange. He was hit by a dump truck while crossing an interstate on foot.

I mean...that's chalk central, apart from maybe DJ and Finau. Even when you hit, you still need to beat a ton of other line ups.

Are you mixing and matching those guys with others on a multi-entry tournament? Because a core of those guys should leave you a lot of money. I'm not a very good DFS player, but I do know that leaving money on the table is typically a good thing in tournaments. But this seems like a tournament where you should probably spend all of your money or as close to it as possible? Yeah, I'm doing a lot of line ups this year. The Mrs's asked me, "Why don't you win a bunch of money again?" when she heard the Masters was coming up (my single entry was runner-up for the milli-maker in that weird fall Masters) and since DK was offering a free 100 dollar entry with 1K in spend, I decided to take her up on her idea. As far as leaving money on the table...it really depends on what the preformance and ownership projections look like, and what kind of tournament you are playing. I'm only playing the millimaker, for which, getting duplicated is a huge bummer. For golf tournaments, in general, as long as you aren't eating all the chalk, you can be ok. But for the Masters there are much fewer golfers (and more dinosaurs that you can't really play) so duplicates in really large tourments like the millimaker become a concern. So for the Masters, you need to be more ownership-conscious, AND more apt to leave money on the table. For instance, the lineup I won all the cash with left 200 on the table, but two of my golfers wound up being much more chalky than I had guessed, and I was duped, thankfully only once. I'm leaving at least 100 on the table for all of my lineups, unless it has someone that I think is going to be super low-owned, or has 3+ players around 5% owned...and then I have some special sauce I'm not going to mention here. Oh, and 0% Tiger.

I'm loading up on Woodland, Varner, Niemann, Hatton, and DJ on draft kings.

I think that's a pretty horrible bet, myself. That's the same odds to win as Shane Lowry and Sam Burns. SAM BURNS! You could get +5500 on Conners, Fitzpatrick, Adam Scott, and Tyrell Hatton. +6000 on Paul Casey and Tony Finau. All of them are MUCH more likely to win, imho.

Elo models that aren't robust (don't have high numbers of outcomes) are garbage.

Mine was Qatar Serbia Ghana!

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/food-sex-or-cars/2861303

This is true March Madness.

If I didn't know any better, this game looks like U17 quality play. I'll take a win tho.

I think they will just blame it on Lil Penny No diggity.

Well, Mexico City is higher in altitude than any major American metro, and by a fair amount. I have to assume they train there. And yeah, training at altitude is basically legal blood doping. Your body creates a bunch more hemoglobin to compensate. Wouldn’t that only matter to the guys who live there though? All the guys playing in Europe for 9 months of the year all of a sudden aren’t going to be used to the altitude when they’ve been back for 3 days. That's true. You'd have to be there for a few weeks to get any effect.

Well, Mexico City is higher in altitude than any major American metro, and by a fair amount. I have to assume they train there. And yeah, training at altitude is basically legal blood doping. Your body creates a bunch more hemoglobin to compensate.

I love tacos because they taste good and would also love rotten eggs if they tasted like tacos. But what if you mistook rotten eggs for tacos?

True but there’s articles out there that analyze the performance of any player that leaves Colorado and their numbers in general do not change very much. What would be at least as telling to me is: Has any player ever left Colorado and had their numbers improve? Galarraga had his numbers jump significantly at age 32 - especially over his previous 4 seasons - once he hit Colorado - now he did have pretty similar numbers his first year in Atlanta as well. As long as you are accounting/equalizing for the fact that everyone hits better, in general, at Coors, GMs probably won't go too far wrong. I'd assume some hitters will do slightly better at Coors than others: hitters that feast on fastballs (because high-spin pitches are much less effective at Coors), power-hitters with extremely high average launch angles (because duh), and high OBP guys with very low launch angles (because the ball just travels farther, and the outfield is massive). But focusing on "stars" and how they have fared since leaving Coors seems a weird way to evaluate the post-Coors effect. Most everyone that becomes a "star" and signs somewhere else tends to be over-valued and likely to underpreform most peoples' expectations.

St. Brown is indeed trash. Classic Packers non-NFL player who Rodgers made look like an NFL player, and even then he's a bottom feeder. He's a waste of space. I'm not as certain about that. The Packers kind of have set roles on their offense, and St. Brown was largely the fill in for Adams in the "large route tree" role. He had a few chances to shine when Adams was injured and most clearly did not, plagued by drops and, well, not being Adams. But when he got a few routes here and there to spell Adams he always looked really good, and the separation metrics on him were also strong. I wouldn't automatically write him off.

Yep. That deal just screams “I’m taking the most money and that’s the only reason I’m going there”. Because my perception of the western United States is all skewed I thought maybe Colorado made sense as it’s close to Vegas and with twins on the way having family somewhat close by would be a perk but it appears Denver is about as far from LV as Chicago is from New York lol "Close" is relative. The drive through Utah is nice, and there are a lot of Mormons in Colorado, too.

What? He’ll be around to break Packer fans’ hearts, once again. Is this a reference to a single game in 2020 where Brady had QB rating in the 70s? It's just such a petty and goofy take.

What?

The local bar got a trackman, and they charge 30 bucks an hour. Pretty nice to have around when there is still snow on the ground and spring is teasing its arrival. Got heckled toting golf clubs around in my neighborhood, though. Your local bar has a $20k golf ball tracker? Yeah, I have to guess they got it used, and it seems to think I hit my 3 wood the same distance as my driver, so it has some issues.