JudasIscariotTheBird

I'm here for all of your cheating scandal needs! This is less clear cut than the chess stuff, but something weird is going on here.

Spanish Game players think SO much of themselves.

I'm in a pick-em pool with about 40 people, where everyone makes 5 picks against the spread each week. If anyone goes 5/5, they take the pot. If no one does, it carries to the next week. Each Wednesday I check to see where the lines have been moving, and take the side that's getting more points. It's because the public likes the other side, and when I get lucky enough to go 5/5, I don't want to split the pot with anyone. I just want the side that the rest of the pool isn't on. Anyways, I also have Cincy at -3.5.

From what I read, there's the rumor that someone in Magnus's close group leaked the info to the kid and that's why he prepared for a strategy that Magnus had never used before that game. Yeah, that's a youtube-comments-section spawned rumor that no one is taking seriously. It's also completely unrelated to the multiple insanely engine-correlated games that are popping up in Hans' over-the-board history. But for TT, Fabiano Caruana has been addressing this a little recently. He is very critical of the security devices used at most events, and that they were insufficient to catch a hidden device with less metal than a gun.

Going to start searching out spanish streams to prep for my Galapagos trip this winter.

"If MLB ever went to a fully automated ball-strike system, it would eliminate a skill MLB umpires have spent years (decades in some cases) perfecting. And the first month of the transition would assuredly be rocky, with plenty of discussion of how the strike zone has changed, highlights of the strangest ball and strike calls and plenty of disruption." Who cares? The sharps that have been betting over-unders based on ump assignments for decades?

So there is this guy that has been dubbed the expert on chess cheating statistics. He's named Reagan, so no one should have trusted him in the first place. He's basically just misapplying standard deviation analysis used to test correlations to prove scientific theories. However, he's looking at Neimann's overall, over-the-board results, and declares that the results are within 2-sigma of normal distribution (which, if you are trying to detect something strange for someone who has admitted to cheating, is WAY overkill) so no cheating. If you apply his methods to some people who were actually caught cheating, his method often doesn't detect cheating. Pretty clearly worthless. So let's see what a chess coach (who also happens to be a trans woman) with engine correlation posing as a statistician thinks. This is as close to "proof" that will exist. And a MUCH better method. It tosses out portions of games that overlap theory. Hans has been brazenly cheating his ass off for a long while over the board.

https://twitter.com/SpudKelly/status/1572948416182845442?t=8bmgOpmBiZ7Gp5OkA3UtiA&s=19

I only came in here because at first glance I thought this was a Syria thread.

,,,,is it tho? awfully similar physiques. I feel like "willing/able to take a hit" is more mental or personal style of play with regards to these two specifically No, really, it is. I kinda doubt Fields can do this:

I think I'm live to win a million dollars if KJ Osborn can get a garbage-time TD in the last quarter, and DeVonta Smith and Eagles RBs don't do much more. Brutal. That Quez catch woulda been huge.

If there is one thing that is disapointingly-declined more often than online gambling propositions, it's online fight propositions. I've been involved in multiple versions of both. None of them ever come to fruition, largely because the people proposing them are loud-mouthed blowhards with no intention of following through. You have no idea what I'm talking about I suppose that's not especially uncommon.

lol probably not even my biggest overreaction of the day That said there’s still something funky with this Cardinals team. Hopefully this wakes them up (Kyler is my fantasy QB) Yeah, two games are two games, and I think Kingsbury is a bit of a fraud, but I think Murray is healthily above average, largely because he can run and throw a decent deep ball.

If there is one thing that is disapointingly-declined more often than online gambling propositions, it's online fight propositions. I've been involved in multiple versions of both. None of them ever come to fruition, largely because the people proposing them are loud-mouthed blowhards with no intention of following through.

Had the Browns in a pick-em pool where you need to go 5/5 against the spread to win. Would have had 750 on my own had they not collapsed. LAC NYG DAL DET for the rest.

Line looks correct to me.

It looks like you can watch the games that are shown in your local market(including playoff games), but only on phone/tablet. If you had TV access to those games already there's probably an app that lets you watch them on mobile, so my guess is that it's really only useful for true cordcutters who want mobile access but are only doing antenna for local channels instead of an OTT provider like Youtube TV or Sling. I took a cursory look at it. That was my impression too. I also understand that they have a higher tier, for more money, but it only gets you the ability to stream replays of the games. Seems like a waste of money to me. It's worth noting that people overseas can buy all the games live......so this whole crappy setup is due to the DirecTV contract, which hopefully goes away after this year. I get that DirecTV showered the NFL with money to keep that exclusive rights package but in the process the NFL lost a lot of ground in their nationwide offering to all fans. All the other major sports are way ahead and have been for years. Also there's the fact that the NFL app is about as user friendly as a fighter jet cockpit, but that's another story... Yeah, it seems like the only reason they released the app is to test things out before it goes fully operational when the DirecTV contract ends.

Unamazingly, Jets announced WIlson misses the first 4 weeks of the season.

There is a scandal brewing in the chess world. Seinfield Cup in St. Louis is happening, one of the bigger tournaments each year. Magnus won in the first round against Nepo, and then had white against a late-replacement in the tournament, Hans Niemann. He's a very odd character. He's known for being a bit of a bad boy (lots of confrontational interviews and streaming statements), but an up and coming strong player. He managed to beat Magnus with the black pieces. The game didn't look especially suspicious to me, largely because Magnus played pretty poorly, but Magnus thought otherwise, and resigned from the tournament saying that he'd get in trouble if he explained why. Some GMs stated that young players should be given a chance, and others (including Nepo) made some sly comments that Niemann's play was "more than impressive." Niemann also has a repuation for cheating, being banned from chess.com twice, and some GMs booting him out of their online money matches. Cut to yesterday, and all eyes were on Niemann versus Firouzia, who just beat the everliving piss out of everyone at the world blitz-rapid tournament, and is pretty clearly the best player in the world of the new generation. This game was definitely suspicious. Niemann played a move that was VERY much an engine move, offering a piece for a position that no commentators or GMs could see why it was good. There was no immediate forced mate. But the engines loved it, and there was an insane line 12 moves down the way that could force a win. Firouzia declined the sacrafice because he had no clue what was going on, and white had a much better game for a while. It wound up going to a draw, and Niemann told Firouzia about a line he considered which would have won nearly by force, and also no commentators saw coming, even in hindsight. The interview afterwards with Niemann explaining the game was doubly-suspicious. He claimed to have studied all of the lines involved the morning of, despite never playing in this particular opening variation before, and the 2600 that was going over the game with Niemann clearly had a much better understanding of the position (when they turned the engine evaluation off.) He couldn't even spell out the entire line that accepting the initial piece sac involved, blundering repeatedly in the post-mortem. I think it's pretty clear shenanigans are involved, but how he's cheating is going to be tough to prove. I think it might just take the players refusing to play at events he's invited to to put a stop to it. I don't normally like listening to Nakamura much because he's too awkward to listen to in large doses, but for evaluating if top-level players are cheating, it makes more sense to listen to him than anyone else chiming in.