We only know the first part in hindsight. And Zambrano was freshly turned 26 and coming off 4 straight seasons of 4 WAR, two of which were 5. Yes, he was having a bit of a down year in 07, but to say that at age 26 it was clear that he was on the decline is wrong. I don't want to derail this thread with Zambrano, but Zambrano was abused by Dusty at an early age and was clearly already declining. Doesn't mean he wasn't a good pitcher anymore, but he was not going to be an ace he was paid to be. FIP 2004-2007: 3.57, 3.70, 4.14, 4.58 I'm not a big fan of WAR in general, but from 2004-2007: 4.7, 4.5, 3.9, 2.8. The groundball percentage was dropping, the HR/FB percentage was rising, and the walks were rising. The smart thing would have been to trade him or take the picks given the amount of money he was commanding. Zambrano is pretty much a proven FIP anomaly. His actual ERAs those 4 years far outpaced his FIP. His WAR doesn't include his offense either.