I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely. EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's. I hate Utah State, but I can't write them off. I guess the issue with them, is the only way they're at-large eligible is if they lose to a bad team. On the flipside, I love Niagra, but you have to write them off. And it's bad for St. Mary's. Getting pantsed like that last night killed them. I think any of the BCS schools(excepting WSU and probably UK and Nebraska) would have to be strongly considered with runs to their title game.