Aaron_Kennelly

You probably shouldn't have said that then. He isn't the type of guy that can sustain that. Freakishly athletic guys with lots of power can, though. i said it because he did it for his first 1200 PAs Which is why I said you "probably" shouldn't have said that. There are some bad-ball hitters that have managed to keep that up, but it usually the guys that just rip the ball with authority that do. I wouldn't have argued you at the time you said it. But, looking back, you probably shouldn't have said it.

Cy Haren.

Nice snag there.

You probably shouldn't have said that then. He isn't the type of guy that can sustain that. Freakishly athletic guys with lots of power can, though.

So you think his floor at this point is "regular star" or would that be putting words in your mouth? I'd love for you to be right. Well, when he's at 3.9 fWAR through 101 games in his rookies season despite a only a .192 isoSLG which was supposed to be his calling card...yes, I think regular star is his floor. (to be fair you could point out that maybe he just isn't going to hit for as much power in the majors as people were expecting, which, fine, that can be an opinion, but I refuse to live in a world where he won't maintain a mid 200s ISO as his career goes on) there's also the .341 babip (allowing him to hit .249) and the positive defensive rating which doesn't necessarily fall in line with what was expected/said by scouts. Eh... he's also really fast and hits the ball really hard. So .341 isn't really out of line for his BABIP. ZiPS has him at .342 for the rest of the year. And I think he's passed the eye test defensively and looks more comfortable at third now.

Kris Bryant has been worth more BsR than everyone in baseball, excluding Billy Hamilton. Don't forget that, too. He is Mark Reynolds, with positive defensive value, and top-of-the-line speed and base running instinct.

It's much more than that. Coming into this year, his career walk rate was 3.6% and it is 7.2% this year. He's doing this at AA, also -- a much tougher place to make that adjustment than at the lower levels. He also talked a lot this Spring about working on the mental part of the game and improving his approach at the plate, by being more patient and laying off tough pitches out of the zone in order to see more hittable pitches. Looking at his swing % at minorleaguecentral, he swung at 55.4% of pitches last year in Tennessee and he was at 51.0% in his first 216 PA there this year, which is when they stopped updating these numbers. It is right around this time when his numbers first started to gradually improve. So that isn't even accounting for his recent walk binge, that would certainly be dropping that number even more. What it shows is that he was making a concerted effort to improve his approach, even though it wasn't showing any improvements in his results at the plate. What is happening right now, is that he is being even more patient, and it has coincided with him being scorching hot at the plate. It, obviously, might mean nothing. But, one could surmise, through box score scouting, that what is happening is that something did click. He worked on being more patient, completely refined his game, and now he is comfortable with his new approach, and it has taken to him. As a result, he isn't making weak contact on tough pitches out of the zone, and he is squaring up balls left in the heart of the zone. All the while, now that he is able to recognize pitches and lay off of bad ones, it has resulted in the boatload of walks he has been accumulating. So he is fixed and is a completely different player, and is now one that can have sustained success at the higher levels... Or it could be nothing. But, it certainly is intriguing.

Oh and Ryan Williams, through 6: 1H 0BB 0R 5K

Almora adds a single, making this his sixth consecutive multi-hit game. McKinney adds a walk and a double to his homer. And, Candelario is 1-2 with a triple and a BB.

That rule isn't talking about a ball in play. It's talking about a play that forces in a run from third; e.g., a BB or a HBP. So if a pitcher walks in a run, then the batter still needs to touch first and the runner on third needs to touch home. The rest doesn't matter, because there is no force play to be made.

Miggy wasn't lying when he said there was talent there.

Almora double in the first. I think I'm in love.

I'm pretty sure he was that drunk. http://i.imgur.com/CtU8L8z.jpg

I'm more worried about the Nats/Mets loser at this point I'm not. We are 3.5 up on one and 5 on the other. And, by having to take the wild card, it would mean that team didn't play well enough to take the East. The chances of both of those teams playing well enough to overtake us aren't very high. Granted I'm not writing them off -- or the Giants -- but I am not too worried about the loser of that race.

Yes, his 2.11 ERA and 2.37 FIP over the last two seasons indicate that he isn't suited to close.

Almora just got off to a slow start so that he didn't have to compete with Schwarber and Bryant for Rookie of the Year this year.

http://i1130.photobucket.com/albums/m536/dandy_monkey/gifs/sunnycry.gif

I don't think we are allowed to have bandwagon teams when we are a playoff team.

Almora 1-1 with a BB and a SB so far. Candelario is 2-2 with a homer.

Does anyone remember Joe Buck basically going into a catatonic meatball stupor on some nationally televised game last year right after the Samardzija deal? He railed against our front office about the trade and basically said the Cubs were in a constant cycle of suckiness, in which we would never get better. He kept going on about how you can't build around young players and other nonsense.

This is where scouting reports and things like upside and projection come into play. I mean, Zagunis had a similar (and probably better) stat line, what, like a month ago? Contreras's numbers look great, but there is probably some BABIP luck going on. And he hasn't shown much home run power, either. And he has never done this before. I mean, a 400 PA stretch in AA can lie to you, and has many times in the past. So, you take those numbers with a little grain of salt. That being said, I love what he is doing. His walk and strikeout rates look great. And hitting the ball is important; I would rather a guy do well than not do well. But people can get excited about guys like Cease because he throws the ball like 98-99 mph, and they get excited about Eloy because he is a freaky physical specimen at such a young age. But Contreras is certainly earning his way into that mix. And if he keeps doing this, people won't still be sleeping on him.

What if his BABIP drops 120 points like it will and he becomes an above-average hitter who sometimes plays catcher and is good for 3-4 WAR per year? What if he is some Trout-esque beast like David said, and his BABIP only drops like 90 or 100 points, as someone with his current batted-ball profile and exit velocity suggest is possible? And what if his BB% keeps going up, as pitchers become more terrified of him? And what if his O-Swing% keeps dropping, as it has been in his second go-around? And what if his Contact% keeps going up, as it has been in his second go-around? And what if not all players peak at 17 nowadays, and he just keeps improving? I know this is sort of a "temper your expectations" post from you, with a dose of "I am hopelessly miserable and love pissing in the punch bowl." But, since his second call-up, Schwarber has been some kind of Goldschmidt/Trout-esque freak, and the underlying numbers concur. His first call-up was heavily BABIP-aided, and his overall numbers are still riding high off of that, with a little more BABIP luck this time around, too. But, he really has been a Trout-like freak, so far. Of hitters with at least 300 PA, only Stanton and J.D. Martinez have a higher Hard-Hit%, and only Stanton has a higher average exit velocity. Certainly I'm not claiming him to be Mike Trout, or that he can't regress to that 3-4 win level... or worse. And that's definitely the most likely outcome. But, maybe he is a Mike Trout-esque freak.

Pierce Johnson tonight: 7IP 3H 1R 1BB 7K Jake Stinnett tonight: 7IP 3H 1R 1BB 6K Stinnett's last three: 19.2IP 1BB 16K

Willson Contreras is 1-2 with a double and 2 walks. Season line up to: .343/.421/.499

Agreed. I had written him off completely. My interest is at least piqued again -- mainly due to the walks. It seems like he's made an honest commitment to being patient, and he seems to be reaping the benefits of waiting for pitches in the zone that he can drive... or so I will tell myself to explain away the last few years.