Cubswin11

Wonder when having the in game video back for Javy will start resulting in him not being terrible.

This team will be lucky to get to 10 wins by end of the month with the schedule and this performance from the offense. Which isn’t a bad thing if the goal is to tear it down. Just be so bad we can rip the bandaid off cleanly. KB, Willy, Kimbrel and a few others still have value.

Sure but he did very little to change that dynamic this offseason, even despite a partial teardown by trading Yu for nothing of value over the next several years. If they were going to try to go with a "put all our faith in the pitch lab" strategy, why wouldn't you try to also change the dynamic of the offense when it was a well known weakness heading into the season. The more I think about it the more I realize that some of those signings the Cubs did make seem like they were made to be flipped at the deadline. The one thing the Cubs do have right now is a lot of attractive trade pieces for July and I think thats what were going to see happen in July. Sure they hoped that they could scratch together a quasi competitive season in a weak division, but assuming it didnt work out they were going to go into July ready to deal. For all the talk about tanking getting the Cubs a title, the real reason is because they struck gold over and over again in those sign-and-flip trades. I'm not sure we can count on Jed being able to do that again, but you're right, they're probably going to try. They hit gold on everything, the first round bat picks all hit at insane levels, the flip trades worked (Jake and Kyle), the reclamation/buy low trades worked (Rizzo, Monty, Montero), the all in trade (Chapman) worked, the FA signings all worked (Zobrist, Lester, Lackey, Hammel). They just hit everything they tried.

If Theo is to believed from his exit press conference, Jed was always the guy pushing for change and moving on from guys and Theo was the guy who held on too long/was irrational about players/too attached. So at least Jed may realize what mostly all of us have the last 1.5-3 years and knows a team offensive profile like this doesn’t work moving forward. Sure but he did very little to change that dynamic this offseason, even despite a partial teardown by trading Yu for nothing of value over the next several years. If they were going to try to go with a "put all our faith in the pitch lab" strategy, why wouldn't you try to also change the dynamic of the offense when it was a well known weakness heading into the season. The more I think about it the more I realize that some of those signings the Cubs did make seem like they were made to be flipped at the deadline. The one thing the Cubs do have right now is a lot of attractive trade pieces for July and I think thats what were going to see happen in July. Sure they hoped that they could scratch together a quasi competitive season in a weak division, but assuming it didnt work out they were going to go into July ready to deal. I think it would’ve hard to completely overhaul the offense this past offseason for a lot of reasons (COVID stuff, most guys with little value with 1 year left and sucking, Ricketts with $, teams not willing to be overly aggressive trading for guys, etc.). That’s why the margins moves a lot of us wanted seemed to make the most sense. I think the scrap something together and either maybe we win the division or we have 4-8 really nice trade pieces come June/July was the clear thinking. I don’t blame Jed for not completely fixing the offense/making all the moves necessary in 1 offseason given circumstances and am hopeful he can at least see the flaws of this build out and do/try better on the next competitive cycle and hope it was just Theo lip service on him always being a dissenting voice in the room on ideas/moves.

If Theo is to believed from his exit press conference, Jed was always the guy pushing for change and moving on from guys and Theo was the guy who held on too long/was irrational about players/too attached. So at least Jed may realize what mostly all of us have the last 1.5-3 years and knows a team offensive profile like this doesn’t work moving forward.

Were the HBPs on Joc and Happ international? I turned it off

Heyward has hit the ball hard all 3 times today at least, maybe he’ll go on one of his 25-45 game stretches where he’s basically Trout here soon. That’s all I got.

It’s a league wide thing. Fewer balls in play/batting averages falling over the last few years certainly is due to the TTO approach and pitchers having better stuff but it also correlates to the shift being used more than ever.

No they wouldn’t. If you couldn’t put the 3B in short RF with the 2B and SS also on the right side of 2B a guy like Rizzo is surely going to end up with more hits since his approach is pull heavy (at least when he hits GB/LD) there’s fewer defenders over there to field the GB/LD. I think you might be getting lost on the terminology a little bit. And Bertz is probably making the point you're trying to make. Whether Rizzo grounds out to short right or gets a single, he still isn't getting one of the Three True Outcomes (BB/K/Home Run). It's still just a number in the denominator of 'other plays' (the things theoretically all of us want). As Bertz mentioned, there's definitely an argument it leads to a different approach at the plate that leads to more TTO results. But once the ball is in play and not out of the park, there's no way for it to result in a TTO. I thought that was the point I was making, banning/limiting shifts likely leads to more balls in play that find holes and go for hits giving us the ideal outcome of a non TTO result (a hit vs a GB/LD out in to shifts). They want ways to get more action and base runners, doing this with the shift would lead to that imo.

It would lessen the 3 outcomes though. How many times have we seen Schwarbs and Rizzo hit in to some crazy shift on the right side? Certainly if teams weren’t allowed 3-4 infielders over there some of those ground balls and line drives go through for hits. That lessens the HR-BB-K outcomes. ...how? The alternative to a hit thought a normal shift is an out into a heavy shift. In both cases, the HR-BB-K totals remain the same. No they wouldn’t. If you couldn’t put the 3B in short RF with the 2B and SS also on the right side of 2B a guy like Rizzo is surely going to end up with more hits since his approach is pull heavy (at least when he hits GB/LD) there’s fewer defenders over there to field the GB/LD. I don’t see the three true outcome guys overly changing their approach but if you’re going to make it that you can’t put as many fielders on the spots of the field they hit it to the most it certainly will lead to more non-HR hits and thus more “action” which is what they seem to ultimately want here.

It would lessen the 3 outcomes though. How many times have we seen Schwarbs and Rizzo hit in to some crazy shift on the right side? Certainly if teams weren’t allowed 3-4 infielders over there some of those ground balls and line drives go through for hits. That lessens the HR-BB-K outcomes. ...how? The alternative to a hit thought a normal shift is an out into a heavy shift. In both cases, the HR-BB-K totals remain the same. No they wouldn’t. If you couldn’t put the 3B in short RF, and the 2B and SS on the right side of 2B a guy like Rizzo is surely going to end up with more hits since his approach is pull heavy (at least when he hits GB/LD) there’s fewer defenders over there to field the GB/LD.

If it was that easy “to just put the ball in play” I think we’d see it more. It’s just not that easy. Some guy would go hit .380 if it was that easy to flip the ball the other way when 3 guys or on the other side of the IF. And in my scenario you still could shift. It’s just with 2 infielders per side and not 3-4. I agree its easier said than done, but the shift certainly isn't causing more true outcomes, is my point. The players that get the shift applied on them are the hitters that are unlikely to alter their approach...and those are the hitters that tend to be the true-outcome-heavy batters. There are reasons to want to get rid of heavy shifts, but this aversion to true outcomes shouldn't be one of them. It would lessen the 3 outcomes though. How many times have we seen Schwarbs and Rizzo hit in to some crazy shift on the right side? Certainly if teams weren’t allowed 3-4 infielders over there some of those ground balls and line drives go through for hits. That lessens the HR-BB-K outcomes.

The shift sucks too and should be banned, or at least curtailed. 3B/SS need to stay on 3B side of 2B, 2B/1B need to stay on 1B side of 2B and OF can’t come in past a point to avoid still doing a 3 infielder thing. It’s not that hard to legislate and would lead to more hits/action. I hate not allowing shifts. Unrelated to the main reason that I hate banning the shift, heavy shifting should incentivize batters to just put the ball in play by altering their approach. That should also reduce true outcomes. If it was that easy “to just put the ball in play” I think we’d see it more. It’s just not that easy. Some guy would go hit .380 if it was that easy to flip the ball the other way when 3 guys or on the other side of the IF. And in my scenario you still could shift. It’s just with 2 infielders per side and not 3-4.

The shift sucks too and should be banned, or at least curtailed. 3B/SS need to stay on 3B side of 2B, 2B/1B need to stay on 1B side of 2B and OF can’t come in past a point to avoid still doing a 3 infielder thing. It’s not that hard to legislate and would lead to more hits/action.

Nice win

Hell yeah Pedro

2 runs seems like a 15 run deficit.

Aging curves are getting younger and prospects are emerging at younger ages, the COVID year and this year may throw a wrench in that to a degree but it’s not crazy to see that all of Davis, Amaya, Howard, some of the Yu trade guys and some recent draft/IFA guys are ready to go within 2 years. Plus whatever we get in any sell off trades this year/offseason and any draft picks/IFA (if they really suck there’s extra IFA money and higher picks) guys the next 2 years. Plus there’s guys like Strumpf who won’t be a star but could be a solid player ready soon and there’s a lot of pitching closeish. I don’t think it will require a 2010-2014 type suck fest this time. Conceivably it’s just this year and next year of a semi tank/suck fest. There’s legit star potential in Davis, Howard, some of the Yu guys and Hernandez. Lets be honest, the rebuild didnt start until Theo took over. Jim Hendry was still trying to cobble together a decent team with tape at that point considering he was trading for Garza and signing guys like Carlos Pena to fill holes. Hard to find a point in time outlook of the Cubs roster/system at a given time but thinking back to the 2011-2012 offseason when Theo took over, it felt like our team was made up of overpriced declining veterans, and scrap pieces. The few exceptions were guys like Starlin (happ), Jeff Samardzija (hendricks), Cashner and I guess Sean Marshall. They had to run out the clock on players like Soriano (Heyward) until the years remaining on the deal were small enough to get anything of value. The biggest differences are the Cubs farm system was beyond abysmal in 2011 vs average now, and the payroll will drop sharply rather than gradually like it did between 2011-2014. So maybe you're right. I just don't think its a good idea for Jed to be looking at all the payroll clearing up this offseason and thinking he can spend the Cubs back into legit contention. I mean I want the Cubs to spend the money because horsefeathers the Ricketts but I dont think spending a bunch of money to build off of a foundation that's pretty bare is wise. I always get the first Theo/rebuild year messed up. The system may be just a average right now, but it really is pretty close to a top 10 system and is only going to get stronger/grow. The basis for new rebuild is so much better/higher now. And there should be a lot of money to spend. FO are smarter now too, I don’t see Jed giving our Pujols type deals or whatever to horsefeathers us spending in to a rebuild. There is a path to matchup the prospects coming up and reasonable/smart spending and trading for the rebuild and not get stuck in payroll hell or whatever.

Aging curves are getting younger and prospects are emerging at younger ages, the COVID year and this year may throw a wrench in that to a degree but it’s not crazy to see that all of Davis, Amaya, Howard, some of the Yu trade guys and some recent draft/IFA guys are ready to go within 2 years. Plus whatever we get in any sell off trades this year/offseason and any draft picks/IFA (if they really suck there’s extra IFA money and higher picks) guys the next 2 years. Plus there’s guys like Strumpf who won’t be a star but could be a solid player ready soon and there’s a lot of pitching closeish. I don’t think it will require a 2010-2014 type suck fest this time. Conceivably it’s just this year and next year of a semi tank/suck fest. There’s legit star potential in Davis, Howard, some of the Yu guys and Hernandez.

The slider/spin rate plus 95+ he showed out of the pen definitely is intriguing

Bote trying for the 8 run HR with those hacks

I’m taking the WS and the overall 2015-2018 run every time and not looking back. This also is partially based on I think they have a pretty solid minor league system with some real star potential and between whoever they keep/sell off it won’t be too long until we have a solid team again. This is also based on the fact I believe they will go back to spending at least in the $175-190 mil payroll range in the next 2 years with 200+ potential in the go for it years when they pop up.

Jesus horsefeathers, Willy. Williams is all over the place and struggling and you swing first pitch on your [expletive] hands

Hopefully Steele can be a relatively useful pen arm at least.