They replaced Piniero's 5 win season with Brad Penny, and Wainwright and Carpenter each have injury histories and each threw at least 100 innings more than they did in 2008. Offensively the Cards are extremely top heavy, so if they have injuries or ineffectiveness to Pujols or Holliday, they're hosed. Even with them, the rest of the offense is so unproven/ungood that they aren't guaranteed to take advantage of having Pujols and Holliday. Really, a fairly significant portion of the projected difference between the Cards and Cubs is defense. Problem is, all the Cardinals' plus defenders play positions where the measurement isn't very good(Pujols, Molina), or don't have the playing time to have a lot of certainty in them being 1-2 win defenders(Ryan, Rasmus). To clarify, this doesn't mean that I think the Cubs are running away with the 2010 Central. Merely, that there isn't much of a gap between the teams, and no one should be surprised if either wins or if the race goes to the wire. i don't think that's really true for their offense. ludwick is a good hitter; schumaker posts a .360 OBP from 2B, and rasmus is pretty good and should continue to improve. plus pujols and holliday have very clean injury histories and aren't likely to miss more than 10% of their games, if that. oh their pitching is horrendous, but i still think they pretty easily have a better offense than the cubs unless braun or fielder miss a lot of time. Even with Braun and Fielder they lack OBP and power throughout the rest of the lineup, I think 3-4 the Brewers are better than us, but we should have a deeper more balanced (in terms of OBP and power) 1-8 than they will. Unless we have to deal with significant underperformances or major injuries again, and nobody in the division is at 100+ win pace at the trade deadline, we should be within a few games of first in July and be able to add a guy or two to give us a chance to win the division or WC.