CubsWin

I know how you feel. The only story I remember reading about Jones wanting out stated that Hendry would only move him if the deal was right. This is completely different from Sosa and Patterson. There, the Cubs were desperate. They had no leverage. Here, the Cubs aren't desperate. Jones isn't making a big stink about wanting to leave. Hendry isn't saying he wants him to go. But its the fluff pieces about Pie possibly starting in CF next season that gets me wondering. If Hendry is laying low in the hopes of making other GMs think he isn't committed to trading Jones and it doesn't work, the "right deal" never comes along, is he going to trade him anyway for crap or will he really hold on to him?

They might be solid. It's hardly a given. That seems a bit harsh, don't you think? They might be solid? We're just talking about being solid, not all-star caliber at every slot. Of Soriano, DeRosa, Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones and Murton, which one of those is likely to have a below average year for their position? Any of them? DeRosa is probably the shakiest of them, but is he likely to put up a below average OPS for a 2B next year? If none are likely to have below average offensive production for their position, then doesn't it logically follow that they are very likely to be a solid 1-7? Just curious. You mention circumstances that Hendry has brought about. Which circumstances are you referring to? Thanks.

I'm not saying we should pencil Prior into the 2 slot in the rotation and expect 18 wins, but from where are you getting your information? When did they find more problems with his shoulder? He definitely won't be ready by ST? His status isn't known because he is still rehabbing, but we do know that he has been doing strengthening exercises in San Diego this off season and expects to test his shoulder sometime in January. Its not certain either way if he'll be ready by spring, but judging by Rothschild's quotes below, Prior is working hard to be ready to go by spring.

:!: What, did he stand you up for dinner? How would you know? I met the guy at spring training a couple of years back and had a nice long talk with him. He seemed like a good guy. Now that doesn't mean that he is a good guy. So how do you know he's a jerk? I don't know him, I'm just repeating what I've read. There were several stories about Ohman being difficult in his contract negotiations last year, and the same stories said Hendry was none too pleased with it. There was also a report from Bruce Miles I believe, recently, that Will Ohman is a nasty guy in the clubhouse, particularly to reporters and "the little people" as it were. FWIW. Hunh. Interesting. Thanks.

In the latest Cubs mailbag on Cubs.com, Carrie Muskat reports that the Cubs "expect" Ryan Dempster to bounce back from his terrible year in '06. I know, statistically speaking, there are anomalous seasons all the time. Some good, some bad. The good ones we look at as "career years" that are unlikely to be repeated. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Soriano is coming off of one of those type seasons. But that's another thread. Is there any reason outside of assuming that his poor performance was an anomaly, to expect that Dempster will pitch like he did in '04? Its tough to say if '04 was the exception or the rule for Dempster because it was his first full year as a closer, but judging by his previous performances as a starter, it would appear that '04 was the anomalous "career year" and '05 was closer to the norm. Is there such a thing as a bad "career year" that a player can be expected to bounce back from even without making any noticeable adjustments? Also, what do people expect from Dempster this season and why? Thanks.

Prior...on mound...February? It's too optimistic to be true, but oh well. Worth pointing out.Also from the Trib... I don't know if "testing" his right shoulder means throwing off of a mound, but whatever it is, according to Rothschild, he'll be doing it sometime in January. Thats at least a couple weeks before pitchers and catchers report.

Nothing.

:!: What, did he stand you up for dinner? How would you know? I met the guy at spring training a couple of years back and had a nice long talk with him. He seemed like a good guy. Now that doesn't mean that he is a good guy. So how do you know he's a jerk?

You're probably right. I didn't think of Floyd wanting to wait to get as healthy as possible. I agree. Ideally, I want all of them in AAA at least to start this season regardless of how well they do in spring training. I agree Jones will not be an asset defensively. However, his bat should go a long way towards counteracting that. I don't understand why Soriano would be a bad RFer. All outfielders need good speed to run down balls and Soriano definitely has that. They also need to run good routes to get to the balls. His lack of experience may have him run less than the best routes, but that should change over time. What a RFer really needs is a great arm to cut down runners trying to get to third. He's got that. Rarely will a LFer need to gun down a runner trying to get back to first, so it is less important for a LFer to possess such an arm. Thus, it seems, so long as Soriano learns to run good routes, he has all the necessary tools to make a very good RFer. I remember someone posting how Murton rated as an above average LFer according to some authority out there, so the corners should be solid defensively. Jones will be well above average offensively for CF, so that will offset his defensive liabilities somewhat if not altogether. Plus, Jacque is really just keeping the position warm until Pie is ready, and Felix is an excellent defensive CFer. I agree DeRosa is a defensive improvement and should at least equal the offensive output of last season's secondbasemen, if not far surpass it. SS is a problem. I still have hope for Cedeno. I'm looking forward to him proving himself once again in AAA though I have my doubts. In house, the Cubs only have prayers that Izturis returns to his All-Star year production and stays healthy enough to shut it down at SS defensively, or that Cedeno continues his development, or that Moore can field the position well enough to play SS at the major league level and his bat continues to develop. None are very safe gambles to bet on. Outside of the organization, there are some decent trade options. Rumor had it that the Tigers were close to DFAing Omar Infante. He's not great, but he'd be better than anything the Cubs currently have. The '07 FA class of SS is very thin. It includes Carlos Guillen of Detroit and Michael Young of Texas, but there is no guarantee that either of them will not be extended before the end of next season. Guillen is very good offensively for a SS but supposed to be a butcher with the glove. It would be doubtful that the deep pockets of Tom Hicks will let his prized SS leave Arlington. After those two, however, there's nothing. So its likely either trade or pray. I don't know where this notion comes from. The Cubs need more OBP, but with a healthy Lee, a resigned Ramirez, the addition of Soriano, an emerging Murton, Jones in CF and an in-his-prime Barrett behind the plate, the Cubs have plenty of power in their line-up. The only holes power-wise are SS, 2B and pitcher and not many other teams in the NL can say that. You could put Murton in that group, but after the 2nd half he put up (a .522 SLG and .912 OPS) and the fact that he was 24 while doing, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

It's possible. We won't know until spring training.

I think the person to ask that question to would be Phil. With Lee and Ward already on the roster and 1B being Nevin's best position, he would be relegated to strictly being the top right-handed power bat off the bench. He might not be okay with that amount of playing time. If he is, he would make a nice righty/lefty pinch hit combo with Ward. Even though he has history at 3B, I still think DeRosa would be used as the primary back-up to Ramirez.

I think it is possible, and I would like to see it happen, that the Cubs sign Floyd and not trade Jones. I think the deciding factor in trading Jones will be the play of Pie this spring. If Felix looks ready, Jones along with a reliever, if Prior and/or Miller are ready, will likely be dealt. There are a lot of changes I would like to see happen. Izturis for one, but I'm not certain how realistic they are. I haven't had any conversations with other GMs and player's agents recently. :wink: Otherwise, with the possible addition of Floyd and then the developing Pie situation, I think this looks like what Cubs fans can expect to see on Opening Day.

I'm thinking Hendry envisions DeRosa as the back-up 3B with, most likely, Ryan Theriot covering 2B. Moore could use more seasoning at AAA. I'd like to see split time between 3B and SS this season in Iowa with Cedeno splitting time between SS and 2B.

Agreed. That was a bad, desperate trade.

That's a pretty good record. I agree. Whoever decided to hire Tim Wilken made a good decision.

That's the problem though. Jim's been primarily responsible for this team having so many problems, and he needed an A to fix his own mistakes. He's not the new guy sorting through the mess. Yes and no. Jim's is primarily responsible for this team being 27 games over .500 in his first three years after having been 46 games under .500 in the three years prior to his arrival as GM. He is only partially responsible for the complete debacle last year was yet more responsible for the fact that the Cubs haven't made it to the playoffs since '03. That is about as convenient, and ridiculous, of an excuse as you could come up with. He's primarily responsible for the success but only partially responsible for the failures. They are under .500 with him as GM, despite having one of the top payrolls in the league during his entire run. There's no reason to sugarcoat it. It's been a disaster. That is about as unfair and unbalanced a response as you could come up with. Once again, a thoughtful, well supported post gets responded to in an overly simplified way where the bulk of the points made gets boiled down to just one and responded to in a closed-minded way. Poor response, goon. Any team's victories are a result of good fortune and the players the GM has chosen performing well and winning, do they not? Their losses, if there are no extenuating and debilitating circumstances, are the result of a poor team having been put together. However, as anyone with an open enough mind can see, the Cubs losses of the last couple of seasons are a not solely a result of the players Hendry has chosen simply not performing well enough to win. They are partially a result of some pretty horrific and debilitating injuries. To close your eyes to this fact is unfair and unbalanced. You're the one who wants to boil everything down to wins and losses, but you don't want to do it in context. Why look at the three years before Hendry became GM? Because it gives us an accurate context in which to understand Hendry's performance. Why bother to look at the circumstances under which these losses happened? Because it generates fairness and accuracy. Context, accuracy and fairness make our opinions hold up under scrutiny. Your opinion of Hendry's performance in this case fails to hold up under scrutiny because it lacks any of the above three qualities.

That's the problem though. Jim's been primarily responsible for this team having so many problems, and he needed an A to fix his own mistakes. He's not the new guy sorting through the mess. Yes and no. Jim's is primarily responsible for this team being 27 games over .500 in his first three years after having been 46 games under .500 in the three years prior to his arrival as GM. He is only partially responsible for the complete debacle last year was yet more responsible for the fact that the Cubs haven't made it to the playoffs since '03. Jim is responsible for missing out on Beltran. He is responsible for not having a better bench. He is definitely responsible for not having a better back-up plan for Wood and for a poor trade for Pierre. He is responsible for taking a gamble on Prior's health last season, though it was probably a pretty safe gamble because he really didn't have much reason to think he wouldn't be okay. Prior's health history was excellent before '05 with his only injuries being flukes. I hold him responsible for not doing enough to get the Cubs into the playoffs in '04 and '05. However, he is only partially responsible for the "mess" the Cubs were last season. Hendry is not responsible for Lee's injury. Or for the unexpected length of Prior's comeback and his poor performance when he did return. He's not responsible for Wood's injury. He is not responsible for Jerome Williams's or Glendon Rusch's collapse, or for the way Hill pitched in May. He's not responsible for the terrible performance of Ronny Cedeno all year long. Two rookies put up promising numbers in '05, Murton and Cedeno. One of them continued to produce, the other disappeared in a big way. He's responsible for not having a better back-up SS to take over for Cedeno, but not for the depths to which Cedeno failed and the number of losses in which that resulted. He's not responsible for the way some of the rookie pitchers failed to perform. He is responsible for having to rely on them, but if you had polled Cubs fans prior to the season, I bet many of them would have predicted better performances out of Guzman and Marshall. He's not responsible for the poor performance out of Dempster. It would have been logical to expect some regression from '05, but 1-9, 4.80? All of those things had just as much if not more impact on the mess of a season the Cubs had last year than anything Hendry did or did not do. There is something else at play here also. Hendry inherited a team in '02 that wasn't great. Hundley at catcher. Stynes at 3B. A stopgap McGriff at first. Jason Bere in the rotation. An underachieving Corey in CF, and a declining Sosa in RF. Not pretty. He got lucky in his first season, '03, and the Cubs overachieved. That set expectations higher than they really should have been. When the Cubs didn't return to their previous level, everyone was disappointed, but they forgot from whence they came. Hendry took a franchise that was 46 games under .500 the 3 years prior to him taking over and was a collective 27 games over .500 in the next three despite a declining superstar and major injuries to star pitchers. That's from whence we came. Last year, everything that could have gone wrong did. Some of it is definitely Hendry's fault. A lot of it is no one's in particular. It is shared by the manager, the players and freak injuries to the team's best players.

Is Jim Hendry still on a lot of medication? So I take it from your comment you know for sure that there weren't 3 or 4 other teams willing to pay him that much?

Here's a better picture of Johnson. http://pinker.wjh.harvard.edu/photos/santa_barbara_california/images/ostrich.jpg Now that's funny!

In other words, a typical Cubs acquisition. Unfortunately, yes. Unfortunately, yes? Boy, are you guys stuck in the past. NCCubFan was just making a joke. Jokes are better when they are based in reality, so I didn't find it very funny, but you're actually agreeing with him. I can't think of anyone acquired in the last three years probably longer that fits that description. Marquis wasn't good last year, but hes not old and doesn't have a bad back. Maddux was old, but wasn't bad or injured. I mean you've got to go back a long way to find a time when the typical Cub acquisition was even two of those three. Gary Gaetti? Dave Kingman? I've got no problem being critical of our beloved team, but let's at least keep it real.

The amount in that article has been changed from what it stated when it was originally posted. It has? Every other article I can find on the Marquis signing has him at 3/21. Sun-Times DailyHerald DailySouthtown What am I missing? Cubs.com originally reported it 3/20. When the Suntimes article came out 3/21, cubs.com changed theirs to 3/21. That's what I'm saying, okay... So the title of thread is wrong. Again, not a big deal, but just trying to be accurate.

The amount in that article has been changed from what it stated when it was originally posted. It has? Every other article I can find on the Marquis signing has him at 3/21. Sun-Times DailyHerald DailySouthtown What am I missing?

I agree. He's a big gamble. The money is relative. Who knows what the market for starting pitching will look like in a year or two. But, in essence, Marquis is a 21 million dollar bet on Larry Rothschild's ability as a pitching coach. Marquis has already shown that he can perform above league average, but whether he will do so consistently over the next three seasons is a huge gamble and I'm not sure I like the odds. I'm not ready to write Marquis off like some people are, but I'm skeptical that Jason will perform at or above league average over the duration of his contract. Larry, your reputation is on the line.

If that were remotely true, I'd agree with you. But fortunately for the Cubs, he has been above average in 2 of the last 3 seasons, one of them well above average. he was right at average (era+ of 103 in '05) and above average in '04 (113 era+). even in his best season of late ('04) he allowed a fair number of baserunners (1.42 whip)...he was really fortunate to have such a low era given how many guys got on base against him. I thought 100 was average making 103 slightly above and 113 safely above. Again, I'm no great fan. Just trying to keep things accurate.

If that were remotely true, I'd agree with you. But fortunately for the Cubs, he has been above average in 2 of the last 3 seasons, one of them well above average. I agree. If he puts up a 5.50 ERA, the Cubs would likely get better out of one of their young arms. If Rothschild can make an impact, Marquis is very capable of getting his ERA around 4.50 or lower. If he can do that, he'll probably be an improvement over what the Cubs young arms would have done. Judging by last year's contracts, he won't be worth what he's being paid if he posts an ERA around 4.50, but if the Cubs win more games than they would have otherwise, I say spend it. That's a pretty big if right now, we'll have to wait and see...