CubsWin

The other roster refinement thread turned into an Izturis thread, so, with some new news, I figured I'd start another one. If this is posted elsewhere, lock away... Really very expected decisions, but there had been some concern earlier in spring training that Hill wasn't a lock. The same with Theriot. We all know who the starting 8 are. We also know that Pie will not be breaking with the big club. So the main questions left to be answered are who will the 5th starter be, how many bullpen arms will go north and which ones exactly, and if there are only 6 relievers, who will be on the bench? Locks for the pen appear to be Dempster, Howry, Eyre and Wood. All other candidates still have options left, do they not? There will be at least one more lefty but which one or both is left to be determined. Cotts is very hittable right now. Ohman is doing only okay and has been speculated to be on the trade block, but there's still plenty of time left. Wuertz is a big question mark at this point. Will he be starting the season in AAA? Rocky Cherry anyone? Two scoops or one? Cup or cone? Locks for the bench are Blanco, Ward, Theriot and Floyd. Pagan seems to have the inside track on the 5th and perhaps final spot, but hasn't made the team officially yet and is suffering from an injury to his side. If Pagan doesn't make the team, the candidates are Buck Coats and Buck Coats with a slight chance of Chris Walker. If either of those guys make it, I sure hope Pie understands. If Lou goes with 6 relievers as he has been saying he wants to, that leaves one more bench spot to be filled. Ronny Cedeno? Tomas Perez? I hope neither. Cedeno would be better served playing full time in AAA. And can anyone stomach another weak hitting Perez in a Cubs uni? But who else is there? EPatt and Moore fall under the same catagory as Pie. Kinkade would be behind Lee, Ward and Floyd. Is Hendry scouting other teams for middle infield help? And then there is the possibility of Floyd starting the season on the DL. And we all know who the locks for the rotation are leaving Prior, Miller, Cotts and thankfully Guzman to battle it out for the final spot but what appears to be the 3rd slot in the rotation. Should be a fun 3 weeks. Speculate away...

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/statistics/stats_06.jsp?content=chc_st06 Thanks, davhern. So keeping in mind that this isn't anything concrete and only just our first bit of available statistical information on the subject... Last spring the Cubs struckout 166 times and walked 87 through 31 games, about a 2:1 ratio. Through 10 games this spring, they have struckout 50 times and walked 38. So the early indications are good. Meaningless, but good. Although the samples are meaningless, I wouldn't approach the analysis that way. I wouldn't include strikeouts at all. 87 walks in 31 games = 2.81 BB/G 38 walks in 10 games = 3.80 BB/G A somewhat significant improvement, if not a significant sample size. Just for kicks, in 2006 over the regular season, the Cubs had 395 BB in 162 games, which comes out to 2.43 BB/G.. If the Cubs actually were to sustain their spring training walk rate (which I wouldn't count on, at all), they'd walk about 616 times over 162 games, which would've been good for 2nd in the NL last year, just behind Philly's 626 and just ahead of Cincy's 614. Again, though, take ST numbers with less than a grain of salt. I just figured it out for fun. I agree, the strikeouts aren't all that important. I only included them for the sake of the ratio between Ks and BBs. I'm hungry, as I'm sure a lot of us are, for any sort of evidence to tell us what the Cubs will be like under Lou and Gerald this year. I don't think numbers from the first 10 games of spring training qualify as evidence, but its all we've got at this point. Unfortunately, all there is to do is wait.

http://pressbox.mlb.com/pressbox/statistics/stats_06.jsp?content=chc_st06 Thanks, davhern. So keeping in mind that this isn't anything concrete and only just our first bit of available statistical information on the subject... Last spring the Cubs struckout 166 times and walked 87 through 31 games, about a 2:1 ratio. Through 10 games this spring, they have struckout 50 times and walked 38. So the early indications are good. Meaningless, but good.

Getting back to the question raised in the original post by CubinNY, can patience be taught... Does anyone have access to the walks vs. strikeouts of the Cubs last spring? Because so far this spring, as a team, through the middle of today's split squad games, they have struckout 44 times and walked 37. These stats are pretty meaningless standing alone of course, but it can provide a small glimpse into Gerald Perry's more selective approach and its effectiveness when compared to last springs totals. I just can't find them...

It's certainly possible. When listening to Lou these days, though, he sure is pulling for only going with six. Now, Lou could break camp with a six man pen and Cherry could still be one of them. Ohman and Cotts are both struggling at the moment, with Cotts having the tougher go of it right now. There is no need to go north with 3 lefties, and I believe Cotts still has options left (check me on that anyone), so Cherry could still make the cut even with a six man pen. Wuertz can go to AAA too, if I'm not mistaken without having to pass through waivers, so he can get healthy and fine tune down there along with Cotts possibly while Cherry and Ohman show what they can do at the major league level. Ohman's already fairly well established, but if they do well and if Wuertz and Cotts prove to be ready, Hendry may have some trade fodder in Ohman and Cherry.

It's possible but it's still fairly early (less than a month until opening day). So he will have to show that he is both healthy and effective to stay. Didn't Wuertz experience a similar problem last spring? Not the same injury per se, but a drop in velocity and effectiveness that may have been due to some sort of injury? He really struggled last spring giving up 18 hits in 8.1 innings, walking 6 while striking out only 2 with a 16.19 ERA. The Cubs broke camp with him and had him on a short leash to start the season. After just 3 games, he was sent down or DL'd or something. Was he injured then or just off? Is this a recurring spring thing for him? Just asking...

He was around the same time as another highly-touted pitcher named Anderson (I forget his first name, but he was with the Mariners).Ryan Anderson?

I can't remember where I read this, so I can't back it up at the moment, but somewhere there is an article detailing the evidence that the reason why the Cubs paid Murcer more than what Madlock was asking is because Wrigley wasn't a fan of black people, especially black people who had the temerity to ask for the money they thought they deserved. Racism. One of the many reasons why the Cubs have gone 98 years without winning a championship. I find that hard to believe. He stuck with Ernie Banks as long as he did. He stuck with Billy Williams as long as he did. By the time Fergie Jenkins was in a position to ask for a lot of $$$, the rest of the team (Beckert, Santo, Williams, etc.) was either too old or no good. He gave the team a shot up until 1973 to produce. It wasn't going to produce and Mr. Wrigley wasn't going to pay anyone big $$$. He got a good return for Jenkins from Texas (Madlock), but once he got good enough he shipped him off too. Murcer was towards the end of his career. If this were true, he would have kept Rick Monday too. That didn't happen. Look at the black/latino's he got in return for most of the trades: Manny Trillo, Ivan DeJesus, Bill Madlock, etc. Jose Cardenal was a fan favorite too. The Cubs had to have black and latino players to survive in the post Jackie Robinson era. Note, the article didn't say all black people. Just the ones that had the temerity to ask for the money they thought they deserved. Banks was from a different era. He may never have asked for more money than what Wrigley offered him.

My little league number was 22. Even though I am right-handed, I learned to bat lefty and, even though it didn't really work very well for me, I would crouch down in my batting stance and try to have my bat lay parallel to the ground just like Billy Buck did. He was the coolest.

I can't remember where I read this, so I can't back it up at the moment, but somewhere there is an article detailing the evidence that the reason why the Cubs paid Murcer more than what Madlock was asking is because Wrigley wasn't a fan of black people, especially black people who had the temerity to ask for the money they thought they deserved. Racism. One of the many reasons why the Cubs have gone 98 years without winning a championship.

I know this is a bit off topic, but it does fit with the title of the thread, so instead of starting a whole new thread... Wuertz is injured at the moment. Now he may be fully ready to return and perform well by the time the season gets under way, but for the sake of discussion, let's say he isn't. With Wuertz out and Miller not wanting to go to the pen, that leaves Dempster, Howry and Wood as the three righties to go with Eyre, Ohman and Cotts as the lefties. Lou has been talking about breaking with a bullpen of 6, so that could do it, but if he goes with 7 or if Ohman or Cotts keep struggling, what are the chances that Rocky Cherry breaks camp with the big club. He has done everything right so far this spring, and his plus-slider seems similar to Wuertz's. Is he ready to spell Mike until such time as Wuertz is ready to return? I would be more shocked as of today if Cherry DOESN'T make the team coming out of Arizona. He's done nothing but make the Cubs look like geniuses for protecting him instead of Holdzkom. A lot can change in the next three weeks, but right now, Cherry looks like a big leaguer. BTW, I believe Wuertz still has minor league options, so they can send him to Iowa to get the rust off once he's ready to go again 100%. I know for sure that Novoa has options remaining, as do all of the young starters from last year. And then there's Prior..... I totally agree. At this point, I'd be shocked if Cherry didn't make the team. We shall see how things progress. I agree that he has looked great thus far, and if nothing changes in the next 3 weeks and Lou goes with 4 righties, then Rocky will be the guy, but I'm asking if people think all of that is likely to happen. Basically, is Rocky for real? After all, he's only pitched 4 1/3 innings. They have been 4 1/3 stellar innings, but sample size is king. Since we likely won't get a good sample size on him in the next 3 weeks, its open for speculation. The last good sample size we have on him are his 48.2 innings at AA last year. He posted a WHIP of 1.17 with a K/9 of 9.3, a BB/9 of 2.6 and an ERA of 2.22. Those are pretty good numbers. And they were even better against right-handed batters. Of course, those were right-handed Southern League batters. He's 27, so if it's going to happen...

I know this is a bit off topic, but it does fit with the title of the thread, so instead of starting a whole new thread... Wuertz is injured at the moment. Now he may be fully ready to return and perform well by the time the season gets under way, but for the sake of discussion, let's say he isn't. With Wuertz out and Miller not wanting to go to the pen, that leaves Dempster, Howry and Wood as the three righties to go with Eyre, Ohman and Cotts as the lefties. Lou has been talking about breaking with a bullpen of 6, so that could do it, but if he goes with 7 or if Ohman or Cotts keep struggling, what are the chances that Rocky Cherry breaks camp with the big club. He has done everything right so far this spring, and his plus-slider seems similar to Wuertz's. Is he ready to spell Mike until such time as Wuertz is ready to return?

The good news today is Samardzjia looked good. Miller did okay. Pie and Cedeno did well. Barrett was fire. But most importantly, the Cubs were aggressive and successful when they were.

An inside the parker and a stolen base from the catcher? Now that's team speed!

I'm also interested in any velo reports on those two. There was a post earlier in the thread from someone who was listening to the broadcast that said the announcers had failed to mention anything on Miller's velocity.

Aggressiveness. You gotta love it.

Cubs have offically announced that Kerry Wood will pitch on Monday against the Mariners. That means that Prior, Lilly and Wood will all get there '07 spring debuts that day. I'll be tuning in for that!

Gerald Perry? This quickly? LOL. It's been two weeks.

No. But there weren't many the first two games.

Gerald Perry?

I sure hope Bruce meant "certain right-handed pitchers this spring" because the numbers that Murton has put up against righties are solid. Piniella did say he is a stat guy a couple of days ago, and this line-up seems to back that up. My guess/hope is that the decision to start Floyd over Murton will be based on the individual match-up against the pitcher or in some cases the team (sometimes hitters just don't fare well against a certain team or in a certain park) and not a straight righty/lefty platoon. The health of the player will of course also be a factor. Yet another thing I will be anxiously watching this spring. In any case, it is great to see Murton chosen to bat 2nd in any situation after the way Dusty filled the two hole. Also, it just goes to show that lists like the one of which Cubs were being considered for the two slot that were appearing in the papers (most of which did not include Murton) should be taken with a big ol' grain of salt. Unless Bruce Miles is writing them, of course. :wink:

Well nothing is impossible, but it is most likely that Colvin starts at Low A Peoria. If he does, progressing all the way to AA in one year will be highly unlikely. It happens, but only rarely will a top prospect jump from Low A to AA in the same season. Plus, with a full outfield already and Pie in the wings, the Cubs have no reason to rush Colvin.

I agree. If Gallagher is throwing strikes and making them miss this spring, he could start the year at AAA, but it may take an injury or a poor performance from someone else to get there. The Cubs potentially have Guzman, Marshall, Mateo, Shaver, Mathes, Wells & Marmol (both of whom could also start in AA) all competing for rotation spots in Iowa. Shaver and Mathes put up decent numbers at AA last season and logged about twice as many starts there as Wells, Marmol or Gallagher. Either or both of Shaver and Mathes could be moved to the bullpen to make room, I suppose... Good problems to have.

Excellent post, raw. I couldn't agree more. People can and will read whatever they want into a quote, but the thing that stood out most from this article for me was something that can't be twisted to make it fit what you want it to fit. One fact in this article was... Now, a lot of that has to do with the make-up of the teams he was coaching, and I doubt the Cubs have the type of hitters to make '07 the 5th time Perry accomplishes that feat, but if he can get them in the middle of the pack, the Cubs will be vastly improved and should be in good shape when it comes to scoring runs given their SLG potential.

Good post. These are the exact questions that I'm sure a lot of us have been asking. Let me add a few more. Was Wade technically a free agent signing even though he was re-signed from last year's squad? If so, does anyone know if that means that he can't be traded before June 15th? Did the new CBA do away with that rule? If he can't be moved before mid-June and doesn't make the 25-man do to the health and performance of the other options, can the Cubs simply place him on the DL claiming that he is still recovering from a surgery that happened over a year and a half ago? Doesn't seem likely, but you never know. Questions aside, I always saw Miller and Marquis as insurance against injuries to other pitchers and lack of performance from the less experienced arms. This is the situation for which Cubs fans have been calling. If we don't want to have to count on Wood and Prior, question mark guys like Miller and Marquis would have to be signed and then we'd have to sit back and let the situation sort itself out. This should be an interesting spring. Getting the answers to the above questions will make it all the more interesting. Anyone?