CubsWin

Off the top of my head: Brent Musberger Joe Buck Joe Morgan Tim McCarver Chip Caray Had you checked the top of another part of your anatomy you probably would have easily remembered to add Hawk Harrelson to your list.

I want to see him play, too. But since the Cubs have other worthy options in the OF, its a tough one. Jones isn't really a CFer. Pie is the only true CFer of the 5 options. Murton, Floyd and Jones are all performing well and fairly well proven at the major league level, so I think we are likely to continue to see Pie being worked in as part of a rotation until Hendry is able to trade one of the other OFers, likelky Jones. I understand they have too many options for the OF thats why I was behind sending Pie down to get him at bats every day. I dont like him sitting on the bench 4 days a week. So now we have Izturis(haha) and Theriot who can play short . They don't have too many options in the OF. They have 5 good, worthy-of-playing-time options, but because only one of them, Pie, is a true CFer, you can't accurately say that they have too many. That's the whole reason why Cedeno was sent down and Pie wasn't. Pie is the team's only real CF, while Cedeno, with the emergence of Theriot as an option at SS, was the third infielder who could play in the hole. Pie is also hitting better than Cedeno is right now, so the choice was clear. He might not be starting every day consistently, but he certainly wouldn't be the first top prospect rookie to be worked into the major leagues at a slightly slower pace than a full on starter. So long as he is in the rotation on a consistent basis, he should be fine.

I want to see him play, too. But since the Cubs have other worthy options in the OF, its a tough one. Jones isn't really a CFer. Pie is the only true CFer of the 5 options. Murton, Floyd and Jones are all performing well and fairly well proven at the major league level, so I think we are likely to continue to see Pie being worked in as part of a rotation until Hendry is able to trade one of the other OFers, likelky Jones.

I think this was the right move. Its bad enough that Cedeno's getting demoted. They didn't have to turn a 5-3 Cubs victory into a loss for the poor guy as well.

I'm in the boat that says its great he has gotten off to this kind of start and that it is probably due to Rothschild's coaching, but the key with Marquis seems to be will he continue to trust his stuff and repeat his motion after getting rocked once or twice. Can he stay confident and find it again? I think things will even out over the course of this season. I'll be shocked if he finishes with an ERA under 3.50. I expect he'll be between 4 and 4.5 by the end of the year and I'd be happy with that.

A couple of months? I know a baseball season is kind of long, but come on. I'm still trying to figure out how a baseball team learns to win with each other. So Derrek, you like hitting the ball that way and think I should run around the bases when you hit it. That's cool, we did that differently in Washington, but I'll figure it out. Hey Carlos, I think we need to figure out which days you plan on giving up lots of runs and which days you'll give up just 1 or 2, so we can adjust our offensive strategy accordingly. Yeah, I don't get that either. They are either executing or not. About the only thing I think "learning to win with each other" could mean is learning to believe in each other. When you start the season going 0-8 in close games, it could easily result in the deep-seated, unspoken belief that this team isn't good enough to win. But if they can turn that around, win some close ones and string together a good run of games, then the deep-seated belief among Cubs players will be "we will win".

I think you're right. It's the psychological effects that really got him last time and that is what fans will have to look out for this time.

I know, it was just getting good, too. 5 out of 6, Soriano heating up, Lee on fire, the starters going good. Oh well...

I've been biting my tongue, too. It was a very disheartening start for Lou and the Cubs. I've got my theories as to why, but they're just theories. Given their roster, the Cubs should contend for this division and the wildcard. The Cubs offense was struggling with Soriano and the SSs really having terrible Aprils. But Alphy's back and with Theriot playing often at SS, the line-up looks better and more consistent with each passing game. Over their last 10 games (since 4/21), the Cubs are averaging 5.9 runs per game. In their first 16 games of the season, they averaged 4.25 runs. In their last 10 games, they have had only 2 games in which they have scored less than 4 runs and only 3 in which have scored less than 5. In their first 16 games, they scored less than 4 runs 8 times, and less than 5 runs 10 times. Will they keep up their recent pace. Likely not. But the Cubs should be one of the higher scoring teams in the league.

Okay, that makes more sense. Why would you not include what he did in '01? If you included it, it still wouldn't change much. He is clearly an up and down pitcher. He's got 3 years with an ERA+ above 100 and 4 below. One of the above average years is only slightly above average at 103 and 2 of the below average years were a very small sample size of 23 and 40 innings. He's clearly inconsistent year to year and overall very average with a career ERA+ just below 100. I said bad "year" in response to you saying that he had had bad "years" recently. He hasn't. He has only had one bad year recently. Sorry, I thought that was clear, but I probably didn't do a good job writing that. Clearly Marquis has had more than one bad year in his career. No one is disputing that. I agree. I look at his numbers and if I were to bet, I would say he would have an average year not a good one, meaning an ERA around 4.50. But a lot of fans were saying that he would be terrible, like an ERA in the mid 5s or higher, as if his '06 showing was somehow the real Marquis. But, when I looked at the stats, I saw that '06 was the worst year of his career and I wondered, if we look at players' career best years and assume that they won't repeat them, why would we look at a player's career worst year and assume that he will repeat it?

Obvious? No. But I can certainly make a case for why he would be below average over the next 3 seasons. My dilemma comes in that I can also make a case that he could be pretty good for a couple of those seasons. If both cases can be made, it can't be an obvious conclusion. His bad year was most recent. But he didn't have bad years (plural) recently. Last season was absolutely terrible. But '05 was above average and '04 was well above average. He is certainly up and down, thats for sure. But the question remains, what stats and logic support the notion that his career worst season of '06 is more the norm and than the exception?

Unfortunately, trends is kind of the reason why I created this thread. You can look at Soriano's HRs, runs, TBs, SLG, OPS and SBs over the last 3 seasons and see that they have steadily gone up. Do people expect this trend to continue or reverse? I don't think Soriano is going to continue to improve upon his numbers from last season. Do you? So why should we expect Marquis's numbers to continue their trend? I fully agree that Marquis's numbers have been trending downward coming into this season, but the question is how likely is that trend to continue? Why is it so unlikely that his struggles last season can be successfully dealt with and his performance return to near his '05 level? Trends can't be looked at in a vacuum and assumed that just because something has happened 3 years in a row that it will likely happen again in the 4th year. It seems as if when a player has a career year in the good sense that we rightfully expect him to not repeat that level the following year. But if a player has a career year in a bad sense, (and the Cubs sign him) some fans expect him to continue performing at his career worst level of the year before. I'm trying to understand why. What are the reasons behind this belief? Okay, this is helpful, especially the part about his peripherals. I'm assuming you are referring to stats such as K/9, BB/9, WHIP, etc. If there are others that I should know about, I would appreciate someone sharing them with me. And I don't blame anyone for being skeptical about Marquis. I'm skeptical. I certainly don't expect him to continue performing like he has so far this season. But its possible he could finish the year with a sub 4 ERA. I don't expect that to happen either, but if he keeps getting his sinker over for strikes, who knows. Lots of people in baseball seem to think that Rothschild is a great pitching coach. I'm not sure myself. He's had mixed results while with the Cubs. And Marquis has had mixed results throughout his career which is why I expect him to fall off and wind up with an ERA in the mid-4s. But if baseball has proven to be one thing, it is unpredictable. Stats show us what has happened, but trends reverse all the time.

I didn't say that it was. His good years weren't just one year either. So what?

I agree with the notion of statistical norms. If a player is near the end of or past his prime and has a career year, he isn't likely to repeat it. Players like Soriano, DeRosa and Jones would fall into this catagory. But why wouldn't the same hold true for players who are coming off of a career worst year? When the Cubs signed Marquis, I saw a player who with the right coaching could do what he had done in '04 and '05. But many only saw a pitcher who had most recently put up an ERA over 6 and sharply criticized the signing. Now it is still early, and Jason could well blow up and have an ERA over 6 again this season, but looking at statistical norms and career averages the same way we do with Soriano, DeRosa, Jones, et al, wouldn't it seem more likely that Marquis winds up with an ERA in the mid-4s as his career numbers would suggest? And when you factor in Marquis's age, wouldn't this be his time to be at his best? I know there are a lot of very well informed fans who will likely disagree with me. I truly am curious as to why.

I think it is perfectly understandable for fans to want to give up on this team. Being a Cubs fan is rarely easy, especially when things are going like they have thus far this season. The fans that have expressed that they want to give up on the Cubs or that this team is the most pathetic group of whatever are no less Cubs fans than those that are still keeping the faith. They wouldn't be feeling this angry if they didn't have some level of high hopes for this team going into this season and a strong desire to see them succeed. Its fine to be frustrated, angry, demoralized, etc. Its fine to use hyperbole to express these emotions. I don't think it does anyone any good to hold fans to account for the words they are choosing when they are this frustrated. They're pissed. So am I. We just deal with it differently. To me, this thread is the perfect place for people to vent their rightful frustration with how things have gone thus far. It probably is better placed in rants, but whatever.

And more than one season has ended in April. I'll never understand why Cubs fans get so uptight when other Cubs fans start to panic after a horrible start to the season. I'm fine with you expressing your thoughts. I don't think it is necessary to call someone who has a different opinion than your's uptight just because he expresses it. It's not like jaydee said, "its april- and how dare anyone suggest that this season could possibly be lost." He's just expressing what he thinks. As far as the logic you put forth of "more than one season has ended in April", it's pretty weak when you consider all of the seasons that haven't been lost after a poor start. When you consider the talent that has underperformed to date on this Cubs roster and recognize that many seasons haven't resulted in disaster after a poor start, saying "its april" seems a very logical and supportable statement.

Excellent post. I couldn't agree more. =D> I agree. A very well thought out post. And, I, for one, don't think you are panicking at all. Just raising the issues that a poor start demands be raised.

No one has said that Marquis didn't get lucky today. Only that Albert's focus should be elsewhere. After getting shutout, that comment comes off as some seriously sour grapes.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=270421116&prov=ap Yeah Albert, that sounds exactly like Braden Looper, Kip Wells, and whatever other crap starters that you guys have. Seriously, coming from the single luckiest franchise in sports over the last three years that's pretty daring. Makes perfect sense, though. He thinks incredible luck is the Cardinals domain and he's pissed that a player from another team got lucky, too. He's sounds scared to me. What's his average now? .203? Yeah... I'll rip on him for whining about something stupid, but I'm not gonna say he shouldn't talk because he's not hitting well.... being as his career average coming into this year was .332. Are you kidding me? I'll gladly rip on Pujols for flapping his lips when he should be getting in some extra work in the cage...while I can, of course. :wink: Trust me, I don't think he'll stay this cold for long. But he's a Cardinal. I say kick 'em while he's down because when Pujols is up, he's untouchable. Heck, we might not get another chance like this one.

The Cubs are beating the Cardinals 6-0 in the 9th. Marquis throws 7 shutout innings against his old team and this sucks? :shock: This is the start of a 9 game win streak. I wish. I wonder if Fred can whip up the odds of the Cubs 8 more in a row after this? Gotta be in the thousands to one, I would think. I put the probability of the CUBS winning their next 8 games at 0.000826405024652576 which is approx 1210:1 Fred, you are simply amazing.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=270421116&prov=ap Yeah Albert, that sounds exactly like Braden Looper, Kip Wells, and whatever other crap starters that you guys have. Seriously, coming from the single luckiest franchise in sports over the last three years that's pretty daring. Makes perfect sense, though. He thinks incredible luck is the Cardinals domain and he's pissed that a player from another team got lucky, too. He's sounds scared to me. What's his average now? .203? Yeah...

The Cubs are beating the Cardinals 6-0 in the 9th. Marquis throws 7 shutout innings against his old team and this sucks? :shock: This is the start of a 9 game win streak. I wish. I wonder if Fred can whip up the odds of the Cubs 8 more in a row after this? Gotta be in the thousands to one, I would think. So....your saying we have a chance.... Not much of one.

:lol: :lol: :lol: Seriously...

The Cubs are beating the Cardinals 6-0 in the 9th. Marquis throws 7 shutout innings against his old team and this sucks? :shock: This is the start of a 9 game win streak. I wish. I wonder if Fred can whip up the odds of the Cubs 8 more in a row after this? Gotta be in the thousands to one, I would think.

The Cubs are beating the Cardinals 6-0 in the 9th. Marquis throws 7 shutout innings against his old team and this sucks? :shock: