CubsWin

Geovany Soto

He's been working on a splitter since the Cubs drafted him as a strikeout pitch. Since he's gotten the hang of it, he's been really good. Remember, Samardzija's only been a full-time pitcher for about 2 years. Actually, he started working on the splitter this year. The slider started after he was drafted. He threw a curve at Notre Dame that was scrapped. When it comes to following our minor leaguers, I'm a big stat guy because, unless we can get our hands on a scouting report, that's all we have to go on, but the Shark is the perfect example of how stats don't tell the whole story. There were rumors that he was not throwing his best pitches and working on stuff and it made sense when you tried to true up his performance and what Cubs management and certain scouts were saying about him. But the front office could always just be covering their butts or talking up a guy to inflate his trade value. And scouts are often wrong. In this case, however, Wilken and company have been proven right...

It'd be Hart over Ascanio given recent performance. I agree with the other 5, they seem like the obvious choices. No kidding. In Hart's last 10 appearances (10.1 IP), Kevin's allowed one earned run on 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 13. He's going great right now and has been consistently good since the end of June. Wuertz had two rough outings the first week in August but in his last 7 appearances (8 IP), he's allowed one earned on just 3 hits. Unfortunately, he's walked 8 in that span, but he's struck out 13. If he can stay hot and improve upon the walks, he also would be a contributing September call up. If Iowa wasn't in the playoffs, I'd want Hoffpauir called up now. With Lee injured and Ward not going great, they could use him. But he's a lock for September. I'd love Guzman to come up as well. That would make three interesting righty arms joining the pen in September and possibly beyond. Howry hasn't turned it around yet, so one of those guys could make the playoff roster. Pie and Hill make a lot of sense as the other call-ups. Obviously, it could be more than six. A power righty off the bench could come in handy. Jake Fox is filling that roll on the 40-man and is tearing it up in AA, but Jason Dubois is doing the same in AAA. Might we see the return of The Creature? The Cubs would have to clear a spot for him as well as Hill. It'll be interesting to see who gets the call.

What his decreased walk rate tells me is he's hot and feeling better swinging at pitches and making good, solid contact. Before, he seemed over matched by the AA pitching. He was lacking confidence, and so he was offering at fewer pitches. I think his earlier BABIP shows this. (Yes, there is an element of luck to BABIP of hitting them where they ain't, but there is also an element of the player making better contact and hitting the ball harder.) At no point this season did he show a great eye, but his IsoD is improved from last year. He certainly seems to have figured something out. I don't know if he has gotten used to the improved breaking stuff that players encounter in the Southern League or whether he closed a hole in his swing that was getting exploited, but the 137 post all star break ABs count as more than just a hot streak. Whereas his performance in the 2nd half thus far is reason for hope, I agree, there are a lot more questions than there are answers right now with Tyler.

Yes. If he gets a hit today, he ties the record of 26 games. I blame both of you...

My brother bought tickets to the game on the 8th and 9th just in case it rained on the 8th. He took his friend to the one on the 8th and promised he'd take me on the 9th. I stayed home and prayed for rain. The rest is history...

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080803&content_id=3247590&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc I'm so glad you posted this story. I caught it on cubs.com before coming over here. It's one of the best I've read this year. How awesome is that?! That's some next level stuff right there. I mean, it's original and definitely lightens the mood/breaks the tension, but the fact that it also seemed to work, to help Z is outstanding.

I agree, but that's assuming health all around and not considering the depth of the two staffs as a whole. What if we took into consideration what we know about Prior and Wood's health risks just like we have to with Harden now? They are all currently healthy, but... Would that change anything? Would you still go with that '04 rotation for the final two months of this season and into the playoffs (assuming the Cubs make it, of course)? I can't blame you if you do. It's a tough one. But when I factor in the depth that this year's staff has over '04's, it gets a little easier. I know I didn't mention this in my original premise, but I guess we would also have to factor in that Kerry would no longer be the closer. :wink:

2003's rotation was Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Clement, Estes. Maddux was not on the team in 03. The 04 rotation was the best, though, save for the injuries. Zambrano had his best year. Clement had his 2nd best year. Maddux was still an above average pitcher. Wood and Prior were coming off their best years in 03. Thanks for catching that. Note to self: don't start threads when rushing out the door... :oops:

Let's say, for the sake of discussion, we were allowed to go back in time and pick any recent Cubs rotation for the stretch run this year which one would you pick? The pitcher would be the age that he was in the year that you select him and the injury risks would be the same though he would start out healthy. The only thing you can't do is mix and match pitchers from different years. Would you choose this year's Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly and Marquis, 2004's Prior, Wood, Maddux, Clement and Zambrano or 2003's Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Clement and Estes? You can take into account each year's depth and other options for the rotation, too. For me, I'm having a hard time going with any other staff than this year's. Is this really the best one in recent memory?

No need to hold out for a prospect. Getting his awful contract off the books would be more than enough value. His level of performance can be filled by guys making $400,000, and then you'd have money to apply to actual players of worth. The problem is they probably can't get anybody to bite on that contract. If the Cubs are constricted by his contract, i.e. hurting for money, I will agree with you. But at the moment, they don't appear to be, and if you take financial concerns out of it, then the choice comes down to which would you rather have, the depth of having Marquis around and the chance (however slim it may be) that he might be the best performing starter out of Lieber, Gaudin, Samardzija and Hill or getting a prospect of a certain value. Having him as an option amongst that group has enough value that, so long as money isn't an issue, it makes more sense to keep him than it would to just DFA him. However, because the Cubs have so much depth there Marquis would likely have even more value to a team that was lacking in starting pitching depth and still in the race. Unfortunately, there are only a few teams out there that fit that description.

Three simple letters...........D----F-------A. why? you're getting slightly below average performance for a guy who pitches every five days. that has some value. if he does his usual second-half nosedive then you pull him from the rotation, leave him off the playoff roster (that's going to happen anyway) and shop him in the offseason. if no interest, put him in the rotation next year until he turns into a pumpkin again. I agree that it doesn't make any sense to just cut him. A pitcher who is putting up an ERA around 4.50 has value. Getting rid of him for nothing just doesn't make any sense. If he continues his 2nd half slide again this year, then the Cubs have more than enough options to take his place. If he doesn't, then he has more trade value come the offseason. But if you can get a prospect that has any kind of future for him, I'd jump at the chance. The Marlins have been struggling all season to find someone to be their 4th and 5th starters that have an ERA under 5.50. Now that they've brought up Josh Johnson, they might only be looking for a 5th starter, but Andrew Miller's knee is still hurting and Mark Hendrickson has just been terrible. Maybe there is a match in south florida.

There are four days until the trading deadline. Are there teams out there desperate enough for starting pitching to take a chance on Marquis despite his 2nd half history? I don't see a lot of them out there. The Marlins and Phillies (even with the newly acquired Blanton) each have a weak back end of their rotations. Unless some team wants him for added depth or to fill in for an injury, the market seems pretty small. Certainly the Cubs have the depth to replace him without getting another starter in return with Marshall, Gaudin and Samardzija currently on the 25-man roster and with Lieber on the DL. He shouldn't be counted on at this point, but Rich Hill is still out there as a possibility as well. The question is can the Cubs get enough in return to justify the loss of Marquis as an one of many options for the stretch run. If all they can get is a marginal prospect, then is it worth it? The split finger that he has added has helped, but he is still about a league average pitcher with a terrible track record in the 2nd half. Your thoughts?

Pawelek. Oh wait, did you say excited?

Debutiful. =D>

No matter what your perception was of how Fukodome handled lefties in spring training (and I think it may be a bit flawed) there is NO WAY the Cubs are having Fukodome platoon with any one. I'm not advocating platooning Murton with Fukudome right now, only if he continues to perform against lefties the way he did during spring training. Were you watching? Did you go to any of the games? He looked bad. Real bad against lefties. The grandma sitting in front of me was commenting on it. It was obvious. I suspect Kosuke will do okay, but after watching him flinch and back out of the batter's box any time a lefty threw him a breaking ball, having Murton on hand to play against lefties (as well as provide some right-handed power off the bench) might not be a bad idea. After all, its the same justification the Cubs used to acquire Johnson. I liked that move and Pie actually looked okay against lefties this spring, especially compared to Fukudome.

I rather how Marshall in AAA as a starter, where he is better suited for, then at the major league as a reliever, in which he would be a square forced into a circle. At least in AAA as a starter, he can keep his arm loose, and stretch out in case of an injury. It's not that the Cubs hate Marshall, quite the opposite, it's there is no room. Exactly. This was the right move. Well said, Red. My thoughts exactly. On top of that, Piggy outperformed Sean this spring. This is the role Carmen has been groomed for. He had 45 appearances in relief at AAA last season and did quite well (40 hits, 44 Ks, 16 BBs in 49 IP). If the Cubs lacked a decent loogy option on their 40-man, then they would have to convert a starter. But they don't...

I'm not too big on the hindsight stuff. I like to deal with the present moment. And, at present, I'm pissed at the decision to send Murton down and keep both Cedeno and Fontenot. My concern is that Fukudome has looked pretty bad against left-handed pitching. I don't know what his splits were in Japan, but when I visited Mesa this spring, he was fliching and backing out of the batter's box whenever a lefty threw him a breaking ball. If Reed Johnson was brought in to play CF against lefties, then perhaps the Cubs should have kept Murton to platoon with Fukudome. The common argument against this is that DeRosa can take over RF against lefties (assuming Fukudome continues to struggle against them) with Theriot moving over to play 2B and Cedeno playing SS. But Murton is a better hitter with more power than Cedeno and would be the best power option from the right side off the bench. He doesn't have great HR power, but he can split the gaps well enough. Piniella played Fontenot at SS quite a bit this spring and I thought Mike handled himself well. Apparently, Lou disagrees with me because it makes no sense to carry two back-up SS, three if you include DeRosa, when you have a professional hitter like Murton on your 40-man.

I agree. I like that the Cubs are not talking about somebody like Crisp right now. He would be a guy who could be seen as challenging Pie for his starting job, and I think it is important for Felix to know that the job is his, at least in a platoon in which he sees a vast majority of the action. Johnson's splits against lefties are preferable to Davannon's and that is what really matters here. The Cubs have Ward as the primary pinch hitter against righties, and he's proven to be dependable. Murton is the 4th OFer and would take over RF with Fukudome in CF if Pie were to get injured. So considering who would make the better starting CFer between Johnson and Davannon is pointless. Go sign Reed Johnson, Jim. A bench of Ward, Murton, Johnson, Fontenot and Blanco ain't bad.

I think it is a little much as well. I do, too. I think Gallagher is going to be good. Cedeno, who knows. It really depends on who the other players in the trade are. If the Cubs are giving up somebody like Veal, then definitely not. If its Patterson or Fontenot, cool. If they give up Murton, it would be nice to get Sherrill coming back. If the Cubs do go through with this, it is definitely a trade to win now which always means giving up more long term value. I'm okay with that so long as it isn't done too often. The question remains, however, will Roberts make enough of an impact to justify the deal. He might. It all depends on the difference having a more balanced line-up will make. Does getting better match-ups against relievers noticeably impact a team's ability to win games? Will having three lefties in the line-up mean that the Cubs will get deeper into their opponents bullpen and face less talented pitchers late in the game? Will Soriano actually be moved to the middle of the order and if he does, will that result in more runs being scored? How big of an impact will DeRosa coming off the bench and filling in for injured players really make? We've seen the stat lines of DeRosa and Roberts being compared a lot in this thread, and they aren't that different, but it is these other more subtle advantages that will make this deal worth doing or not.

Psh, why do we need Merrill when we have Neal Cotts? I'd say George Sherrill is better than Cotts but it's speculation that the Cubs are after him. I doubt they are if the quotes out of Baltimore are any indication. Baltimore is installing Sherrill as their closer. I think they want him to build his value through closing for a while and then flip him when somebody gets desperate for way more than he's worth. I agree with your third sentence. I think they are willing to part with Sherrill. He's not part of their future, so they don't really care if he is their closer of the present. But the more they make him seem important to their team, the more they can justify asking for him. Just attempting to get as much as they can for him. But if push comes to shove and not including Sherrill would hold up moving Roberts and getting something worthwhile for him, I think they would include him. Of course, that entire theory is based on the assumption that Angelos and the Orioles are truly motivated to get something good in exchange for Roberts. I think they are, but they might not be...as evidenced by the ups and downs of this now 223 page thread.

Many of those above questions have already been discussed at length in this thread, except for the possible effects of a more balanced (lefty vs. righty) line-up. The Cubs line-up without Roberts will likely be: Soriano Theriot Lee Ramirez Fukudome Soto DeRosa Pie But with him, it would probably be: Soriano Roberts Lee Ramirez Fukudome Soto Pie Theriot Clearly, the biggest advantage of adding Roberts to that line-up is having his OBP and base stealing ability in front of Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome. But I keep hearing Lou and Hendry talking about the difference a third left-handed bat would make and I'm wondering if this is just "ol' timey" establishment thinking rearing its head or if there are some stats to support that notion. The only thing I can think of is that managers will go to the bullpen more often to match-up righty vs. righty and lefty vs. lefty more often and that the Cubs will face the back end of team's bullpen more often. Certainly, there is an advantage to facing the 6th and 7th relievers instead of a team's 3rd best and 4th best, but how much of an advantage is that? Can anyone else think of any other possible advantage to not having a string of 4 or 5 right-handed batters in a row?

I am of the belief that both sides are still trying to make this trade happen and that it likely will get done before the start of the season. But I'm still torn on whether it will be worth it to give up the rumored Murton, Cedeno and Gallagher to add another lefty bat to the line-up who is a slight upgrade over DeRosa and get the added benefit of meaningful depth and insurance against injury at almost every position except catcher. It is certainly a trade to win now over build a dynasty. But I feel it is overpaying. Murton is a proven offensive commodity who's value only improves if he moves to the AL. Gallagher's performance history is stellar even if his stuff is not. And Cedeno has a shot at being a solid SS at the major league level, something that is not that easy to find. So two questions remain: 1. Is it worth overpaying this much (however much you feel that is) in order to help the Cubs chances even a little at winning the World Series this year? 2. How much does adding Brian Roberts really help this ballclub? In order to answer that one accurately, you would also have to answer what is the impact of having a more balanced line-up? What is the impact of being able to give your star players rest and keep them fresher throughout the season? How likely is an injury to any one of Ramirez, Roberts, Fukudome, Soriano, Lee and Theriot? How much of an improvement is DeRosa over someone like Fontenot or Cintron? Etc., etc.

Big thanks to Raisin for posting all this all winter long and giving us something to follow during the off season. Thank you!

Here is the interesting part of the Rosenthal speculation piece for me. Marquis and Murton for Roberts? Where do I sign. But, unfortunately, its all just guess work on Rosenthal's part. He's just throwing stuff out there...