CubsWin

Yeah, I have that as a likelihood as well, though IMO, there would be nothing wrong with starting Flaherty at Daytona and promoting him when he shows he's ready. He did follow a similar pattern in his two pro seasons. Starts out hot the first short month. Then a pretty bad slump (this year that slump was two months long, last year it was one) and then he adjusts and kills it. I would like to see him prove himself at Daytona because of that pattern, but, obviously if he's hitting AA pitchers next Feb. and March, then he should go to Tennessee. Also, it would have Daytona rock that much more if he started the season there... :)

Obviously, team assignments aren't determined until after Cubs brass works out their minor leaguers at Fitch Park next February and March, but making some assumptions, next season's Daytona looks to be kinda stacked. Given his current FSL struggles, 3B Josh Vitters likely starts next season there. Assuming 2B Ryan Flaherty doesn't make the jump to AA right away, but starts at Daytona with the intention of moving him quickly if he does well, that's half of the infield. SS DJ LeMaheiu is almost a lock to be there considering Hak-Ju Lee is pushing out of Peoria and DJ's hit pretty well in Low-A. 1B Rebel Ridling will be a little old for the league (turning 24 in May), but he's the exception in that area and his .800+ OPS will help fill out the line-up. The outfield will have Kyler Burke in RF (great arm) and Brett Jackson in CF, two high pedigree talents and impressive physical specimens. It's been a while since the Cubs have had two legit OF prospects who were age appropriate or younger at High-A. The only spots open for competition are LF and C. The rotation looks pretty good, too. Ryan Searle could be held over given his age and the fact that he didn't exactly dominate this season. Joining him will likely be Chris Archer, who will be 21 next season, Jeffrey Beliveau (23), 2nd round pick Aaron Shafer (23) who has lit it up lately in Peoria, and possibly Chris Huseby (22) who relieved this season but could be stretched out in much the same way that Cashner was this year. Times should be interesting next season down in Daytona. I'm guessing other teams might be praying for rain...

The short list of players living up to their hype has gotten longer as this season has gone along. Names like Vitters, Castro, Cashner and Jackson dominated this board earlier this season. Some have fallen off a bit like Tony Thomas and Ryan Searle (though Searle is still really young for his league). While others like Chris Carpenter, Casey Coleman, Kyler Burke, Hak-Ju Lee and Logan Watkins have established themselves as prospects to watch. Guys who might be worth watching if they keep it up? Robert Hernandez has re-established himself as a 20-year-old in the NWL posting a 3.34 ERA over 67.1 IP, striking out 63 with a WHIP of 1.14. Jeffry Antigua has emerged as a 19-year-old now pitching in Low-A Peoria. On the year he's gone 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 63.2 IP, striking out 65 against just 16 walks and a WHIP under 1. Dionis Nunez is a 6'4", 20-year-old, righty with some decided control problems but who also has held NWL batters to an average of just .169 over 38 innings. 3rd round pick Austin Kirk and 6th rounder Brooks Raley, both lefties, have only had a taste of pro ball in the AZL and NWL, but both haven't failed to justify their draft positions so far. And I doubt he'll amount to anything, but Oswaldo Martinez has allowed just 4 hits and no runs (earned or otherwise) in 13.1 innings at Daytona. While Oswaldo doesn't turn 21 for another couple weeks, 13.1 IP is a very small sample size. Who's on your list?

This isn't exactly news to the people following this minor league board, but Brett Jackson is not living up to his hype...and thank God for that. He's was labeled as another toolsy, athletic outfielder who struck out too often and lacked meaningful power. Basically, Tyler Colvin all over again. Since going pro, he's used his tools and athleticism to post a line of .325/.426/.500 over 206 ABs and three minor league levels. Oh, I forgot to mention his 13 swipes in 15 tries and the fact that there's been no mention of him not being able to stick in CF. He has struckout 25% of the time which could point to some troubles making contact at the higher levels (28% while at Peoria), but his walk totals haven't been terrible giving me hope that his strikeouts come from aggressiveness more so than bad plate discipline. Assuming he starts next season in High-A Daytona and given that he'll only be 21 for much of next season, I'll be paying close attention.

Don't look now, but 22-year-old right-hander and 2nd rounder in '08, Aaron Shafer is finishing his first full season in pro ball strong. In his last 5 starts (going 6 innings in all of them except one when he completed 5 2/3) he's given up 22 hits in 29.2 IP, allowed just 4 ER while striking out 21 and walking only 4. He's gone 3-1 with an ERA of 1.21 during that span for Peoria. I believe he was ranked higher than a 2nd rounder earlier in his college career but then got injured allowing the Cubs to get him when they did. I remember reading reports that his velocity and control hadn't returned to his pre-injury levels earlier this season. Does anyone have any recent scouting reports on his stuff lately?

Flaherty's peripherals tell me he'll be fine. The guy's hitting for a decent amount of power and is maintaining solid walk and strikeout numbers. Plus, he's managed not to be horrifically incompetent at SS like many of us were predicting him to be. Granted, I still think he'll have to be moved off of the position, but it seems like defense won't be much of a problem with him when he does. He's still in my Top 15 FWIW. Someone's looking pretty good right about now. Nice prognosticating, O_O...

This is what I'd like to see, too. I'd be okay if Flaherty started at Daytona, but because of his age, I'm hoping that he'll see AA sometime next season.

Wow, with everyone hating the pick he has gotten off to a nice start. Yeah, so far, he's been the anti-Colvin...

Frankly, I think he'll be fine. He's good decent patience and very good power, plus he's played three positions this season without much trouble defensively. I believe the minorleague splits think that based on his K/BB/HR/line-drive rate etc., that with normal luck Flaherty should be hitting around .290 with an OPS well into the .800's. Which is more the kind of average I'd expect for a guy who had 15-17 HR's and a K-rate below 20%. There may be reasons why his actual average is lower. But I think there's a fair chance that he'll get promoted next year and do fine. I think it will be intersting to see how his HR-rate goes next year. Sometimes a guy his age gets stronger, better at HR', and further improves his HR rate. If so, he could potentially be a serious HR threat, enough to overbalance some weaknesses in other areas. But it's also true that sometimes a guy hits fewer HR's against better pitching, and if theother stuff stays about the same buthis HR's drop, we'll be really uninterested. Any concern that Flaherty has been playing in leagues that last two seasons that he's a bit too old for?

So, it appears as if Starlin Castro will finish this season as the Cubs 2nd or 3rd best prospect behind Vitters and possibly one other player. How does Starlin compare to other team's top 2 or 3 prospects. Will he be a top 31-60 prospect overall? Or at least a 61-90 prospect overall? Or are we just excited about him because our minor league system has been bereft of hitters for so long?

Yeah, it doesn't seem like it's too aggressive to me either. He had 358 ABs at the A+ level and consistently hit well over .300 for May, June and July. Assuming he doesn't implode next spring, he likely start next season at AA. So what's the diff if he gets a taste now at the end of the season and sees a little playoff time to boot. BTW, he got two more hits tonight making him 4-for-9 with a walk and an RBI in his first two games. We'll see how he holds up, but so far so good. As far as him being in the bigs in "the very near future", that all depends on what you mean by "the very near future" and "in" the bigs. If he continues to hit AA pitching well next season and improves on his throws to first, then I can see him possibly getting a September call up next season. As far as being on the 25-man regularly, that may not happen until 2012. He's very young, and we see players revert after having break through seasons all the time. I'm a little more cautious, I guess, when it comes to seeing him in Cubbie blue.

If that's the case, might it be that Cubs management wants him to work on other stuff and not push that 95 mph fastball this season due to his recent injury history? Can throwing a harder fastball cause enough stress on a player's arm to injury it? Or would throwing a fastball 5 mph less, but still 88-90 mph cause the same stress?

His previous suspension for steroid use gives me some pause when looking at the success he had early in his career. Moreover, while he is age-appropriate, his past production suggests that he should be pitching at a much higher level than the NWL. He's definitely an intriguing prospect and I wouldn't argue with someone for putting him in their Top 20. However, from my perspective, I'd prefer to wait and see. Right, but if his previous success was aided by the use of PEDs, then we can't use it as an accurate bar-setter. I just wiped the slate clean with him after the suspension and looked at what he's done since. I'm not saying he should be in the top ten right now, just that he exists in the group who might possibly get there next year or the year after. I guess I would put players like Logan Watkins and Jeffrey Beliveau in that group as well. No one seems to be talking about them for top ten this season, but they've both put up noteworthy numbers and still have time left on their clocks. Hey, here's a question. How seriously should we be taking Chris Huseby right now?

And he stays on fire in his first game at AA going 2-for-4 with a run, 2 batted in and a walk. Welcome to Tennessee, Mr. Castro.

FYI, from what I've read, he's pitching side sessions at Fitch and hasn't had any discomfort. The Cubs are being extremely cautious though and it seems like he won't return to in-game action till fall instructs. Cool, thanks. I just figured if Rhee and his upside but no recent performance evidence would be included that we might as well throw Suarez in the mix who has had talk of a good upside as well, but to date has not shown a consistent ability to reach it. Hernandez though, I will go to bat for. At 20, he is still age appropriate for the NWL and pitching well, if not great. A 3-1 strikeout to walks ratio, a K per inning and less than a hit per inning. He hasn't been dominant, and I have no idea what his stuff is like now, but those are the bench marks I look for and he's got 'em. Again, he's not in my top ten, but I think he's good enough to get mentioned. Am I way off here. Should he not even make the top 20? I don't know. I'm just going off stats and they only tell part of the story.

Rhee drops out of my top 10 until I see him pitch effectively again. I concur about Rhee. Good upside, but I have no idea what his chances are of reaching it until we see how he's pitching now. LeMahieu could possibly be in the top ten by the end of the season. He's doing well so far in Peoria but we are only 21 ABs in. Maybe some people know enough about him to be able to make a call, but I don't. For me, definitely Vitters and Castro, one and two. After that, I think Hak-Ju Lee and Cashner have to be in. Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter are probably in but not as certain. That's six. I think we have to consider Jeffrey Antigua, Brett Jackson, Kyler Burke, Chris Archer, DJ LeMahieu, Tony Thomas, John Gaub and maybe some others I'm not thinking of right now. Dae-Eun Rhee, Larry Suarez and Roberto Hernandez probably don't make the top 10, but I think they should be included in the discussion. Unfortunately, I lack so much information needed to make this call. I only have stats and some scouting reports. Those that know, help me out...

Good. I was looking at his stats just last night thinking, "this guy deserves a promotion". Another guy who is close to deserving a promotion just on his numbers is Jeffrey Beliveau. He also is a year young for his league so I'd like to see how he does at Daytona.

Do we know what Vitters' injury is?

Well, we got our answer. Today. July 5th. Huseby now has 43 Ks against 3 BBs on the season. He managed to go basically a month and three-quarters without issuing a walk. Let's start a new streak, Chris. We've still got Guzman's 53 Ks/4 BBs mark to shoot for...

This one. My thoughts exactly.

He certainly has the frame for it at 6'3" and 205 lbs.

We're towards the end of June and the picture seems to be getting clearer on some of these prospects. At the dish in Peoria, obviously Vitters (who has returned to his HR hitting ways of late) and less obviously, former 1st round supplemental pick, Kyler Burke have put up noteworthy performances. The HR power is a lacking but the gap power is there. 28 doubles in just 245 ABs isn't bad. .282/.367/.465. The strikeouts are high, but his walk totals aren't bad. In the same number of ABs at Boise last year (245), Kyler struck out 70 times and walked 28. This season, one level higher, he has improved in both areas striking out 55 times and walking 33. He has stolen 7 bases without being caught yet and apparently possesses a very solid arm for either center or right. Plus, he's age appropriate at just 21. If he can stay on this improvement trajectory... On the bump in Peoria, there are three who's performance stands out. Chris Archer (21), Jeffrey Beliveau (22) and Chris Huseby (21). Each has more strikeouts than hits allowed. Way more. Always a good sign. Walks have been a problem for both Archer and Beliveau, but not for Huseby who has walked just 2 on the season against 40 Ks. In Daytona, the only hitter who continues to impress is Starlin Castro. After a slow start in April (.200/.235/.200), he has turned it on in May (.368/.382/.540) and June (.337/.386/.413). His ability to throw the ball to first leaves a lot to be desired with 24 errors so far this year, the vast majority of those being of the throwing variety. But at just 19 years of age. He's got time to get that straightened out. Of the arms in Daytona, I'm keeping an eye on Rafael Dolis (21), Andrew Cashner (22) and Al Alburquerque (23). Alburquerque is a year too old for his level, but he's been injured so I'll excuse him. I had always heard his name as one to watch coming out of the Dominican League and I'm glad to see he's finally living up to the hype a bit. Ryan Searle has struggled mightily of late. He's just 19 too, so I'm still watching.

Peoria in the 13th still tied 1-1. Burke, who is now playing first, has thrown out two runners tonight from right field. One at third and one at home.

Maybe. Maybe not. They are both currently starters in the minors and not failing at it. I think any pitcher in the minors has a better shot to make it in the majors as a reliever, so the odds are skewed in that direction, but its far from a certainty at this point.

Chris struck out the side tonight to earn his 6th save. He now has 23 Ks against 0 walks in 15 innings since May 10th and 39 Ks against 2 walks on the year.