CubsWin

I don't get how his fellow pitching teammates could possibly affect his ranking against the rest of the league. I don't either. I never said it would. Just that if the other pitchers in the rotation with him are good enough to have him be the 5th best, then it would affect his ranking against other 5th starters as over against 3rd starters.

I see the justification in giving him 5-6m for 1 year. I just don't see how anybody can say with any confidence that he will be good. He's a risky venture. He's sucked throughout his career. At this point you would have to consider yourself lucky to just get average out of him. But how can you say he will be good with any level of confidence? You can't call how Gil Meche has performed thus far in his career as good, I agree. He has had a below average ERA+ every year he has pitched after his surgery in 2001. But his career ERA+ is just below 100 and he showed many improvements in his performance last season hitting many career marks. He is 29, so he has a few years of prime time left, especially for a pitcher who missed a good chunk of time due to injury like he did. And yet, even with all that, you still can't say he will be good with any level of confidence, I agree. But, as a 5th starter, things change a bit. I think he is a much safer bet to be above league average when you take into account who else will likely be in the rotation with him. Is there a site that compares pitchers by how they rank on their own team's rotation? Is there a league average ERA+ for 5th starters anywhere on the internet? If there is, I bet you it is well below 96 or 97.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1089&position=P Thanks, man. Awesome. Did you grow up in Wilmette or do you just live there now?

We'll see. If his shortened swing can help him hit like that all next season and if he can improve his plate discipline from 20-some walks per year to over 40 next season, the Cubs may have something to deal with.

Anyone know where I can find stats on GB/FB ratio? Thats a factor I didn't take into consideration. I checked baseball reference and the baseball cube, but I know there are more and better sites.

Neither. I never asked a question. :P That said... What pitchers would you want to acquire if the Cubs fail to get Schmidt...or Zito for that matter?

Well, if thats what he is set to be paid, then no. But I hadn't heard any reports that we would command 9 million per season. But I disagree the opinion that he wouldn't even be good as a swingman. That seems like a pretty difficult position to defend given the state of 5th starters around the league.

By definition, that would be an upward trend, would it not? But if you want more, more you shall have. In his most recent season, Gil Meche had career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts. He had his lowest ERA since major surgery in 2001. He gave up less hits per inning than in any year post surgery. To me, that is a marked improvement over his previous seasons which seem to indicate what can accurately be called an upward trend. It may also be just one decent season that could be followed by a crappy one. That's why I used the word "seem" in reference to any possible upward trend. Only time will tell, but there, too, Meche has things going for him. He is at the point in a pitcher's career where they tend to improve a bit. He's in his prime. He's not my first choice. Outside of Zito or Schmidt, Padilla is. But as a 5th starter, which is what he would likely be if 2 more pitchers are signed, he would be fine, especially if he continues trending upward.

I think some mix of Gil Meche, Jason Marquis, Jake Westbrook, Jeff Suppan and especially Vicente Padilla would serve the Cubs nicely. Cliff Lee would be great, too, but so far there has been little word that the Indians are even considering trading him. Of all the FA starters this off season, Marquis and Meche are two of the youngest, if not the youngest. Westbrook is right there with them. Padilla is only a year behind them. So they all will be in their prime for at least the first two years of their contracts. And while Suppan may be likely to trend downward given his age, he has been an extremely consistent average to above average performer over the last 8 seasons. Meche's numbers seem to be trending upward. Meche hasn't been the healthiest of pitchers in his career, but he has put up innings with more consistency than Prior or Wood, thats for sure. He has been performing below league average, but his numbers are improving. At age 28 and after having taken some years off earlier in his career due to injury, he might the pitcher most likely to improve next season of all the FA starters. Marquis appears to be trending downward, but that should only make him cheaper and at 28, there is still a decent chance that he can recover his old form. I would expect Marquis's contract to be the cheapest among this group and yet he is only one year removed from a 113 ERA+ and a 103 ERA+. The stats would indicate that last year's 73 was an aberration that with work can be turned around. Padilla has a career ERA+ of 106. In his two worst seasons in '04 and '05, he had an ERA+ of 96. If 96 is his floor, his career norm is 106 and his ceiling is around 115, then at age 29, he is likely the safest bet to be above league average among the 2nd tier. At 29, Westbrook's numbers should at least hold steady for another few years, but his performance hasn't been all the great. He had the one all-star season in '04, but other than that, he has been fairly average. It is difficult to determine a trend with him besides even years are good and odd years are below average and next year is an odd year. Still Westbrook would be a safe, serviceable arm. Jeff Suppan will turn 32 in January and that is when a lot of pitchers' performance begins to fall off. Acquiring one of the 29 year old guys would likely result in a safer bet, but it might not result in better performance. No one in this group has been more consistently above league average than Jeff Suppan over the last 8 years. But there in lies the rub. How likely is he to stretch that to 9 and 10 years? Regardless, when you compare him to pitchers outside of those mentioned in this post, he is head and shoulders above them. So even if the Cubs miss out on Schmidt, it shouldn't be the end of the world. There are some decent pitchers not on this list like Ted Lilly, but given age, trends and recent performance levels, I felt these were the best of the rest, certainly for the sake of contract value. Discuss.

No, not really. I think his arm will be fine since he hardly throws any breaking balls, and he kept the ball down last year. He strikes me as a good pitcher - not the kind of guy who falls apart when he loses a tick or two off his fastball. Well it should. A decrease in velocity and the decreasing length of a pitchers stride are two of the biggest keys to a shoulder injury. throwing less hard makes a pitcher hurt his shoulder? interesting. no. It's a symptom of shoulder injury. he threw over 200 innings last year. Shmidt is a fastball/change up pitcher. Although I don't like the abuse he's taken over the last several years those types of pitchers are very durable. BTW where does the "decrease in stride length and decrease in velocity" come from? I mean on what information is this observation based? Schmidt used to throw mid 90's. He was down to 88-90mph at the end of this season. Now, a variety of things can be the reasoning for this. Over worked is the main reasoning, however. Over worked usually means the pitcher becomes tired, and when the pitcher is tired his mechanics begin to take a nose dive. Which means he is more favorable for a arm injury(Kerry Wood). If a pitcher is losing length on his stride, it usually means his shoulder cannot keep up with the length the pitcher is taking. Schmdit is known for his absolutely insane length on his stride. Probably the longest in the game today. When he has to shorten that stride, it possibly means his shoulder cannot extend out to the point it used too. Is there reason to think that Schmidt's stride length is shortening or are you just talking hypothetically?

Another question that never got answered is what are the specifics of Soriano's contract. Are there any option years at the end of it? Has anyone heard or read anything on that?

Are those numbers adjusted for park factors? And color me uneducated but what evidence is there that supports the idea that a lower BABIP isn't caused by the types of pitches the pitcher throws? I'm asking. It would stand to reason that the less deception a pitcher employs, the easier it would be for a batter to get a good swing on a pitched ball thus hitting it more crisply and improving the likelihood of it being safely hit in play. Greater deception could cause a pitcher to have a lower BABIP than some others. But in order to rule out luck entirely one pitcher would have to have a consistently lower BABIP than the average. When I checked, Zito's BABIP was consistently lower than Schmidt's. Could that be due solely to park factors? If its not due entirely to park factors, Zito can't be simply luckier than Schmidt 5 out of 6 seasons, can he?

That's what I'm saying. This rumor is unverifiable, and there is no such newspaper as the San Diego Tribune. Its called the San Diego Union-Tribune. And the San Diego Union-Tribune doesn't have anything about it on their web site. Yep. Fishy...

True that, but at what price? Is the difference between Zito and Lilly big enough to justify what their difference in salary might be? If money is no option, I'd probably take Zito though...

That's what I'm saying. This rumor is unverifiable, and there is no such newspaper as the San Diego Tribune. Its called the San Diego Union-Tribune.

If Floyd "truly" wants to play for the Cubs, then it shouldn't take "$9 mill" to get a deal done, especially with his injry concerns. Once and for all, the rumor didn't state that it would take 9 million guaranteed to sign Cliff Floyd. Go back and read the original post if you have to. It talked about incentives that could reach 9 million. There was no mention of what the base might be and no mention as to what the milestones would be that Floyd would have to reach in order for the incentive money to kick in.

Every time I see you write this, I will have to point out that Kenny williams has NEVER HAD A BELOW .500 TEAM. Jim hendry is well below .500 for his career. It's a bad, bad, bad comparison. Well below .500 for his career? He is 3 games below .500 and he was 27 games over .500 coming into this season.

I don't think anybody "wants" to pay Floyd that much money, but with Pierre and Matthews both signing for as much as they did, isn't Floyd "worth" (in quotation marks due to the crazy market this off season) 9 million if he stayed healthy all season and started 150 games? Remember, the base would be lower, only the rumored maximum after all incentives were reached would be 9 million. I think Floyd would have to protect his value by only signing a contract that paid him at least that if he played in 150 games. Obviously, the base would be quite a bit lower than that considering that he is coming off of an injury maybe around 3 million. But I can't see, given his ability to produce, why incentives that went as high as 9 million would be unacceptable. Given his OPS when healthy and the FA market of late, I would think that number would be only fair.

Good lord! What in the world has Floyd done recently to earn that sort of a raise? I think I'm going to try missing work 40% of the time next year and then demand a 26% raise. If my boss has a problem with that, I'll tell her to take it up with Cliff Floyd. Careful, the exact words were that the contract would be worth up to a maximum of 9 million. Who knows what the base is. If someone gets injured and winds up starting and puts up the numbers he is capable of, he would easily be worth 9 million given what Pierre and GMJr are making. As far as confirmation, I can't help there besides providing another source and some background. Apparently, Cliff and Jim go way back... And this on Floyd's leanings this offseason... Ben Maller of Fox Sports posted the following on his Rumor Page, but I can't provide a link...

Doesn't matter. The last team he played for was the Cubs so therefore he is a returning FA. Also, I don't see the Cubs signing more than 2 more A or B FAs. One FA Pitcher and Perhaps one FA bat with the rest of the holes filled through trades. Cool, thanks. Looks like each team is alloted 5 A or B signings anyway, so I doubt they would reach the limit. It appears the consensus is that Soriano will play RF if the current OF personnel stays the same. Anyone hear differently?

No, resigning your own FAs doesn't count agisnt the limit But the question is: was Ramirez the Cubs "own" FA once their exclusive negotiating period expired at midnight and when exactly was he signed, before or after the deadline? Hendry said he wants to add 2 bats. Unless Derosa counts I'd guess it was easier to find another RF than CF I heard he wanted to add some lefty bats, but there was no mention at what positions or if they would even be starters. He's got some bench spots to fill/upgrade. Soriano said he didn't have an opinion, just so long as it was the OF and that he would leave it up to Piniella. Jones will be traded but perhaps he'll start the season in CF while they wait to see what Pie does at AAA This is the sense I'm getting as well. Jones may be traded during the off season if he can bring in the right pitcher, if not, he will play CF until Pie is ready which may be '08. Schmidt has stated his preference for the West Coast from day 1. I've not heard that Hendry was ever interested in Zito. The latest reports on the radio are that the Cubs are not out of the Schmidt sweepstakes. I was aware of his West Coast preference, but the Cubs are making a splash right now and if the Cubs look like they have a better chance of winning than the Giants, Padres, Dodgers, Angels or Mariners, he may think again.

Theriot saw time at SS in 49 games at AAA last season starting 41 times there. He played 2B in 25 games and LF in 7. In '05, he played SS in 36 games, 86 at 2B. I can't find '04s numbers, but in '03, he played SS in 57 games, 51 at 2B. And in '02, it was a perfect split of 66 at each position. Where you play in the minors is often dictated by the other personnel on the team, so it is tough to draw any conclusions as to Theriot's ability to play SS effectively at the big league level from those numbers.

could you please not vear us off topic thanks :lol: :lol: :lol:

Enjoy the ride? Yeah, but my head hurts now something fierce. 117 pages? You just read all 117 pages? Dude...

OMG, I just got in and saw the news. Soriano! Woo hoo! (Said like the guy in Animal House who walks up to a table of guys playing cards and says, "Hey, you guys playin' cards?")