Even if they ate the remaining money left for '24, a 50FV guy is probably too optimistic and, even if you got one, they'd likely be several years away. a 45 guy or a 40+ with some helium seems reasonable if you're looking for someone close to MLB ready.
I expect tonight's game to be the nail in the coffin for the 2024 season. You can't be up to 10gb in the division and up to 4.5gb in the WC with 62 games left and think it's a good idea to further invest into this team.
I don't think replacing him in the offseason on a similar deal is that difficult. The issue is getting something back that makes the risk worth it. If it's a 40 FV guy then I'd rather just keep him.
So as I figure it, with just Southisene left to sign out of the top 10 picks, the Cubs have $479,600 left plus 5% overage of $490,115. That's a total of $969,715 left. So either Lovich or Southisene is getting quite a bit more than I expected.
Nothing terribly surprising right now. Thought they might get some savings on Mathis.
I've been expecting Southisene to be a slight overslot, but we'll see.
This is where you'd have to get creative and someone more experienced than me would have to figure out the way. For example, I have a group of doctors who all work together and they're collectively part of a partnership. The hospital pays their wages to the partnership. The partnership then disperses their income like normal checks biweekly to the doctors. At the end of the year they receive a K-1 from the partnership instead of a W-2. That K-1 can and does go to their individual C Corps instead of to their individual returns.
Ugh the dates of this are right in the middle of tax season. I was already planning on a 4-6 week vacation in Japan after tax season next year. This would have been a really cool thing to add onto that.
It would take a massive haul for me to be on board with this. He's under control up to 2028, and been a top 10-15 pitcher in baseball since the 2nd half of 2023. It would take something that's not going to be offered by anyone like Holliday+Heston Kjerstad+Cade Povich.
Remember when we were all on Rickett's side for driving those rooftop owners out because we were under the delusion there were going to be massive new revenue streams from the park renovation? Those were good optimistic times.
He'd be smart to take it into a C Corp, with a flat tax rate of 21% federal versus the 37% he'd pay federally as an individual. He'd pay a bit more to Illinois, but the federal savings would far out weigh that and the deductions he could take on that income on a C Corp would far outweigh what he could take on his individual return. Unless I'm misunderstanding his request, I feel like it would be foolish to not do this.
If he opts out, he's opting out of 2/35. He's 31 right now and will be 32 very near the start of the 2025 season. If he's opting out of 2 years, he's going to want 3+. Are you prepared to give him 3+ years at around 20M for at least his age 32,33 and 34 seasons? I'm not entirely comfortable with that for a guy that brings a giant chunk of his value with the glove.
So at this point I kind of figure it goes like this
1) Cam gets slot
2) Math gets just slightly under slot maybe you save 200Kish
3) Cruz gets probably at least 75% of slot so you save 150-200Kish
4) Southisene gets slot, maybe a bit over so conservatively we say it wipes out the money saved on Cruz
5) Ariel Armas maybe gets you some saving, 100kish
6) Gallagher gets gets you maybe 50-75K in savings.
So really you're only looking at about 350K saved right now.