CubFanPhilly

12/19/01 Are you referring to the past-his-prime signing of Moises Alou? When was the last time was signed an in-his-prime premiere FA? Alou was past his prime, but was still an effective hitter. Giambi was the only better available hitter in that off season. Bonds, Giambi, Smotlz, and Park were the only players to sign to larger deals than Alou in that off season. But hey, I'm not going to argue that one big FA signing in five years is a great record. Jacque Jones and LaTroy Hawkins are probably the only in-their-prime FA signings the Cubs have made. CFP

12/19/01

Two more: one for the negotiations with Boras and another announcing the signing.

Comfort and Loyalty? Comfort of not having to move to a new city/new routines. Loyalty to teammates, fans, and perhaps to Hendry? I'll admit it's not much. Is the rhetoric about wanting to return to the Cubs all just smoke? If it is, how does that help his cause at the negotiating table?

He's 21. He'd have to spin his wheels for another 2-3 seasons to question his status as a prospect. His ceiling may be coming down some, but it's still a very solid everyday major leaguer.

I think he'll sign: 5/75 with a team option for a sixth year that'll make it something like 6/92 or 5/80. Limited NTC.

You're right it wouldn't matter. If he declines the contract and goes back to Japan, he's essentially saying, "thanks for giving me my wish and posting me, but I unfortunately I couldn't work out a contract. I'm sure you won't mind having me play for you another year before I become a free agent, or that my decision costs you ~$35 million" (posting fee and another year's contract). I think that'd be seen as a universal sign of disrepect - regardless of culture. :)

Jones + Dempster > Benitez and only costs the Cubs $3 mil. in '07 and $4 mil. in '08. The Phillies get two useful parts in return and $3mil. to add to their offer to Soriano.

Per the Pages 65-70 of the OLD CBA: 1) If Aramis re-signs with the Cubs before the Nov. 11 deadline he is not counted as a FA signing against the Cub's quota and is not considered a FA for purposes of determining the quota. If he signs after Nov. 11 he counts as a Type A/B signing. Section B(2)(b) [More incentive for Hendry to get something done now!]; 2) Per Section B(5)(b), the quota is increased if the Club loses more Type A/B free agents than the quota otherwise allows (i.e., the Cubs' quota will be either 3 or 4 depending on the final number of A/Bs, Ramirez and Pierre will have no effect on the quota). 3) If the reports about negotiations between Soriano and the Orioles are true, and the old CBA is still in force, they've violated the agreement [section B(2)b allows a Club to discuss general interest, how the Club expects to use the FA, the potential length of the contract offer, guarantee provisions, etc, but not money.] CFP

I assumed here that the final number will end up under 62. Teams hold options on several of the filed FAs on the list. Also, if I understand the rule correctly FAs re-signed by their teams don't count for purposes of the quota. I'm sure several of these guy will end up re-signed (e.g. ARAM?). There are also approximately 60 guys eligible who haven't filed, though I glanced at that list and there are very few A/Bs left.

Filed Type A and Type B Free Agents: Pos. Rating Type OF/1B/DH Moises Alou 86.44 A 2B/3B/SS Rich Aurilia 71.43 A RP Danys Baez 69.81 A 2B/3B/SS Ronnie Belliard 71.65 A OF/1B/DH Barry Bonds 70.00 A RP Joe Borowski 68.40 A RP Chad Bradford 62.89 A OF/1B/DH Sean Casey 72.31 A OF/1B/DH Frank Catalanotto 63.61 A 2B/3B/SS Ray Durham 82.25 A OF/1B/DH Cliff Floyd 71.33 A RP Aaron Fultz 67.70 A RP Eric Gagne 69.11 A OF/1B/DH Luis Gonzalez 75.78 A 2B/3B/SS Tony Graffanino 66.67 A OF/1B/DH Shawn Green 73.56 A RP Eddie Guardado 66.66 A RP Roberto Hernandez 69.47 A OF/1B/DH Aubrey Huff 70.89 A OF/1B/DH Carlos Lee 80.83 A C Mike Lieberthal 71.43 A 2B/3B/SS Mark Loretta 72.93 A 2B/3B/SS Julio Lugo 67.20 A SP Greg Maddux 75.33 A OF/1B/DH Gary Matthews 75.56 A OF/1B/DH Kevin Millar 65.00 A C Bengie Molina 80.48 A 2B/3B/SS Aramis Ramirez 77.02 A RP David Riske 64.91 A 2B/3B/SS Brian Roberts 84.21 A SP Jason Schmidt 78.43 A RP Rudy Seanez 63.32 A OF/1B/DH Alfonso Soriano 80.22 A RP Justin Speier 74.03 A RP Russ Springer 63.60 A 2B/3B/SS Todd Walker 71.00 A RP David Weathers 69.99 A SP Woody Williams 68.14 A SP Barry Zito 85.20 A C Rod Barajas 51.91 B RP Miguel Batista 55.11 B 2B/3B/SS Craig Counsell 64.07 B OF/1B/DH Mark DeRosa 51.94 B OF/1B/DH Matt Diaz 51.11 B RP Alan Embree 53.95 B OF/1B/DH Nomar Garciaparra 60.00 B 2B/3B/SS Alex Gonzalez 62.34 B OF/1B/DH Jose Guillen 57.56 B RP LaTroy Hawkins 53.66 B RP Rick Helling 55.14 B SP Orlando Hernandez 60.29 B OF/1B/DH Shea Hillenbrand 54.78 B 2B/3B/SS Adam Kennedy 52.63 B SP Ted Lilly 62.55 B SP Jason Marquis 59.64 B SP Gil Meche 58.04 B RP Guillermo Mota 49.69 B OF/1B/DH Trot Nixon 62.50 B SP Tomo Ohka 54.74 B RP Darren Oliver 51.98 B SP Vicente Padilla 57.84 B SP Chan Ho Park 57.68 B OF/1B/DH Jay Payton 52.08 B OF/1B/DH Juan Pierre 58.11 B RP Arthur Rhodes 56.28 B RP Scott Schoeneweis 56.11 B RP Mike Stanton 52.73 B OF/1B/DH Frank Thomas 63.33 B 2B/3B/SS Jose Valentin 53.03 B RP Ron Villone 59.86 B RP Jamie Walker 59.31 B SP Jeff Weaver 60.05 B C Gregg Zaun 64.76 B

Wouldn't losing Pierre or Ramirez raise that though? Not sure: "If there are 14 or less type A and B players available, no team may sign more than 1 type A or B player. If there are 15-38 available A and B players, no team may sign more than 2. From 39-62 this becomes 3. The club quota increases accordingly for higher totals of available free agents. There is no maximum allowed for type C free agents. Lastly, a team can sign up to as many type A and B free agents as they've lost, regardless of the above quota." I read that last clause as meaning if you've lost more type A/Bs than the quota you get to replace all your A/Bs, not that you get the quota plus the A/Bs you lose.

It looks like the Cubs' cap on A/B free agent signings is three this year. Unless the new CBA changes that system too.

Murton would have a better shot at playing RF than Burrell. But hey, he only has to hit the cutoff man, right?

Burrell just needs to feel loved and in control. I'm sure if Lou and Hendry flew to wherever he was, they could get him to waive. Particularly if the deal came after other signings.

If you're thinking along those lines go with: Burrell (LF) - Jones (CF) - Murton (RF) --OR-- Burrell (LF) - Pie (CF) - Sheffield (RF) Scary defense, but how many runs would it really cost you? Pagan makes a passable late-innings defensive replacement.

Yes. Spend the money on locking up Zambrano and Barrett up (front-end loaded deals 5yr and 3yr respectively). Go with DeRosa/Moore at 3B, Theriot 2B and Pie in CF. Find out which (if any) can play and fill the 2-4 holes in the 2007-2008 offseason. Z/Miller/Hill/Prior et. al. in the rotation. Heck if things go really well, you should still have plenty of payroll flexibility to trade for a couple parts at the deadline. (Won't happen though.)

I'll believe it when I see it. There's a good bit of money available in the market, but no enough to justify a Carlos Beltran deal for Soriano. Beltran>>A Ramirez>>>>Soriano

If Ramirez walks, the Lou Piniella signing is a disaster. Signing Lou (and the related hoopla) means Hendry will be obligated to overpay for marginal talent in the hope of scraping together a contender in '07, instead of doing what's best for the team (playing the young guys one more year to build trade value and figure out the holes to fill for a run in 2008). I have to assume that either Ramirez and his agent are playing hardball right now, or ARAM has decided he has no intention of returning to the Cubs. If it's the former, all Hendry has to do is match the best offer. If it's the latter, a big offer might not make any difference. CFP

If his demands are 6/90 you have to think about moving on. That would likely mean the Cubs couldn't contend in 2007, but you can't ruin the budget five or six years down the line either. With that said, if the 6th year is a club option with a reasonable buyout, I'd still be OK with it.

If the Tribune is spending $200 mil. this season, Murton's got to go. I won't miss his cheap production. Like you said, it's not my money. If the Tribune is spending $115 mil. this season, it's Izturis, Jones, and/or Dempster that have to go.

I would love Burrell. I'm afraid Philly will hold onto him now though because of their late season surge. Gillick has made it clear that he'd prefer to move Burrell. He's come out and said that Burrell is not the guy to bat behind Howard. The trick isn't getting the Phillies to deal Burrell, it's getting Burrell to waive his no-trade clause and getting the Phillies to take Jones back and a bad contract or throw in some cash.

I like the approach, but I'd prefer to avoid Soriano, platoon Theriot and Fontenot at 2B (Cedeno is "Plan B") and deal Izturis and the farm for A-Rod or Tejada. FA or potentially available ('06 OPS as RF - J. Jones .836): J.D. Drew .889 A. Kearns .842 M. Bradley .821 G. Jenkins .797 T. Nixon .779 If Murton could shift to RF: P. Burrell .926 C. Lee .897 A. Dunn .854 F. Catalanotto .841 L. Gonzalez .806 Long shots, but what the heck: M. Ramirez 1.048 B. Bonds .994 M. Cabrera .941 B. Abreu .875 Enough power (and perhaps enough arm?) to shift to RF: V. Wells .906 A. Jones .895 M. Cameron .836 I think Burrell and Dunn are the most realistic trade targets, but they're not "guys who can catch the ball" making them the least likely acquisitions for Hendry and Piniella. If I were to guess right now what will really happen it's: CF Lofton SS Lugo 1B D Lee 3B Ramirez RF C Lee LF Murton C Barrett 2B Theriot P CFP

OK, I've been a baseball fan for thirty years, you'd think I know what a bench coach does? Nope. Here's what I've pieced together watching Baseball and Baseball movies: 1) he's the guy who nudges the manager after he's called to get the bullpen up during a no-no and says: "Uh Skip...., you know what's going on, right?" 2) he sits with his hands in his pockets, nods in agreement, and spits on the floor as the manager blows a head gasket. 3) he's the designated "slamee" when somebody's just gotta go after Pedro in a playoff game and you can't afford to lose anyone who actually does something. 4) he gives the Rookie the lay of the land - explains how things work around here and why the manager is such a miserable SOB. btw- if anyone has a serious answer, I'm interested. CFP

(forgive the nitpick) It's the accounting treatment more than the financing. The Trib cares about the impact on earnings per share. The cash is almost meaningless. My guess is that the posting fee would be treated as a prepaid expense and amortized over the life of the contract. That might mean 3-4 years rather than the full six years the Cubs would control him.