CubFanPhilly

Zell doesn't (and won't) own a share of the Tribune or the Cubs. He's a creditor in the deal and he holds stock warrants. Those warrants only become valuable if/when the Tribune retires a significant portion of the debt it's taking on. Once the redemption of the public shares is complete, the Tribune will be highly-leveraged and 100% owned by its employees. It's a technicality, because Zell is obviously leading the deal, but it might mean that the dual ownership isn't an issue.

Soto probably gets some time at 1B while Lee serves his suspension. With DeRosa, Theriot and Ward able to fill in in the OF, Hendry has some time to unload one of the catchers.

Fourteen occurances is obviously a small sample size, but I don't see much here that supports the idea that a lefty following another lefty is a bad thing: Lefties pitching in the same series: Date Opp. IP R ER Hill 4/14 CIN 7.0 0 0 Lilly 4/15 CIN 6.0 3 3 <- Hill 4/24 MIL 6.2 4 4 Lilly 4/25 MIL 7.0 2 1 <+ Hill 4/30 PIT 7.0 2 2 Lilly 5/1 PIT 5.1 5 4 <- Hill 5/11 PHI 5.0 5 5 Lilly 5/13 PHI 8.0 1 1 <+++ Hill 5/22 SD 6.0 5 5 Marshall 5/23 SD 7.0 2 2 <+ Lilly 5/25 LAD 4.1 5 5 Hill 5/27 LAD 6.0 0 0 <+++ Marshall 5/28 FLA 6.1 3 2 Lilly 5/30 FLA 7.0 6 5 <--- Hill 6/2 ATL 7.0 3 1 Marshall 6/3 ATL 6.2 1 1 Hill 6/7 ATL 8.0 1 1 Marshall 6/8 ATL 6.0 1 1 Lilly 6/10 ATL .2 0 0 (Lilly ejection) Hill 6/12 SEA 6.2 3 3 Marshall 6/13 SEA 8.0 2 2 <+ Lilly 6/15 SD 8.0 1 1 Hill 6/17 SD 3.0 5 5 <--- Marshall 6/19 TEX 4.0 4 4 Lilly 6/21 TEX 7.0 5 5 <- Hill 6/23 CWS 5.2 1 1 Marshall 6/24 CWS 6.1 0 0 Hill 6/29 MIL 3.0 5 5 Marshall 6/30 MIL 2.0 7 6 <- If anything I see more evidence of the second lefty doing better. But my point is it makes hardly any difference.

What's the hangup with three lefties? If they're the most effective starter options, what difference does it make? It's just another baseball myth. I don't think anyone actually quoted a myth. Which myth are you talking about? The myth that you can't have three lefties in a rotation. It wouldn't even be a discussion if they threw with the other hand.

What's the hangup with three lefties? If they're the most effective starter options, what difference does it make? It's just another baseball myth.

And the notion that Zell, the league, or Tribune's managment would nix a deal because of the pending sale doesn't hold much weight with me. After 2007 the Cubs are committed to pay $180 mil. in contracts over seven years. The Tribune sale $8 bil. and the potential value of the Cubs ~$.75 bil. to $1 bil. make a $6.6 mil. decision trivial. Strong attendance, good TV ratings, and the value of a playoff appearance in 2007 would do far more to enhance the value of the Cubs than the difference in paying Jones to play for someone else (a decision that doesn't commit the Cubs to paying anymore salary than they were already commited to as Bruce and many others already pointed out). CFP

If Hendry DFA's Jones and another team picks him up at league minimum, the Cubs are on the hook for the same $6.6 mil. as they were in the rumored deal. So, the benefits of the trade were: 1) a A ptiching prospect of dubious value; 2) a guarantee that someone else pays at least $.6 mil. of Jones' remaining contract; 3) the value of Jones' replacement vs. the value of having Jones on the bench; and 4) the value of removing another distraction. Jones can be DFA'd at any time, and it's likely that someone would pick him up at league minimum. That negates most of the benefits of the trade. So, I think it boils down to whether Hendry believed a better deal would come along soon (i.e., a better prospect in return or having the Cubs send back less money into the deal). I want to see Jones, Eyre and Izturis moved soon and Murton, Cedeno, and one of the young pitchers called up to replace them. But I can't blame Hendry for passing on a deal that was not significantly better than a DFA. On the other hand, I will blame him if he holds out too long.

No rain unfortunately.

But unless you put them all together in the rotation, no team is going to see more than one or two of them in a series. There's one benefit to the otherwise dubious decision to put Guzman in the pen: 22.2 IP in winter ball 18.0 IP in ST 10.1 IP in AAA 22.0 IP in the majors this year. 75 IP so far. Another 150 IP as a starter would be a scary total for a guy with his injury history. Another 60 IP would put less stress on him. CFP

Global Warming is a problem. IMO a very minor problem compared to nuclear proliferation. The human factor in warming is debatable, but reduction of carbon emissions is a good and reasonable goal for many reasons other than climate change (e.g., lowering dependence on foreign oil, reduction of pollution).

I think because Zell has already stated openly that he doesn't want anything to do with the Cubs. He is only buying the Media interests of the Trib. Because of this, it appears that the Trib will then sell the Cubs before Zell acquires the Trib assets. Zell isn't buying a single share of the Tribune. It's been sold to the employees. Zell is financing a small piece of the transaction and becoming CEO with a right to buy 40 percent of the Company if things go well.

A few points of clarification: 1) Zell isn't buying a single share of the Tribune. It will be owned by the Trib employees through an Employee Stock Ownership Plan. Zell is acting as a mezzanine lender in this deal, not as an investor. He is lending $315 million to the new entity in exchange for a note and warrants which would allow him to purchase 40% of the business at a future date; 2) The Trib will obviously be highly-leveraged (over 95%), which will dramatically shift its focus from an Earnings Per Share culture to a cashflow-driven culture. The entity will shift its focus to servicing its debt rather than increasing market value; 3) The mountain of debt incurred will likely force the Company to sell off assets in order to lessen the annual debt load; 4) The "win" scenario for Zell is the Tribune emerges from this transaction as a leaner, smaller, but nonetheless valuable entity. (Think $2-3 billion in market value down the road.) Zell's warrants are worth a good deal more than their strike price netting him anywhere from a $.5 to a $1.5 billion return on his investment. The employees collectively realize a $1.2 bil. to $1.8 bil. windfall. On the other hand if the Company doesn't service its debt and falls into bankruptcy, Zell and the employees realize nothing and the Company is either reorganized, sold again, or liquidated; 5) In the final analysis, the common ownership of the Sox and Cubs may be a non-issue and the Trib may not be required to divest of the Cubs; 6) However, the Trib will be highly-incentived to sell valuable assets that do not produce significant positive cashflow (like the Cubs); 7) If the Trib does not sell the Cubs, we should expect the Company to tighten the payroll significantly; and 8) To the extent that the WGN deal doesn't represent fair value for the television rights to the Cub games, any potential buyer is going to discount that from the value. The Cubs are worth far more with the television rights than without them. Look for that contract to be re-negotiated as part of the sale or even for WGN to be spun off as part of the transaction. CFP

Cubs 86-76 Brewers 84-78 Cardinals 80-82 Astros 77-85 Reds 75-87 Pirates 69-93 Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, WC Phillies

On a staff that includes Marquis, if Hill is pitching poorly enough for you to notice he's the one sucking, you can pretty much write off the season. (Don't think it'll happen, though.)

About the only way I see Hill not going in both St. Louis series is if they skip him in the second series. But Hill's going to make Lou forget all about that theory after his first four times through the order.

Yes, Lou said the plan is: 4/2 Zambrano 4/3 off 4/4 Lilly 4/5 Marquis 4/6 Hill 4/7 Zambrano 4/8 Lilly 4/9 Marquis 4/10 Hill 4/11 5th Starter 4/12 off

If he pitches all season like he did today he'll be an effective starter. Definitely encouraging.

Let's compare by position: 1B - .266/.337/.437/.774 - Lee/Ward should beat that OPS by 100+ points 2B - .274/.326/.411/.737 - Expect at least this production if DeRosa reverts to career number, a bump of 50+ points in OPS (particularly OBP) if DeRosa plays closer to 2006 number and Theriot sees some decent PT. SS - .246/.275/.324/.598 - As bad as Izturis' bat is, his career numbers are better than this line. (631 OPS). It's not unreasonable to expect some combination of Izturis/Cedeno/Theriot to bump this OPS by 20-30 points. 3B - .282/.340/.544/.884 - ARAM had 592 ABs last year. There's as much reason to expect a small decline (e.g., a DL stint) in 3B production as any improvement. My guess is 0 to -40 points of OPS. C - .287/.341/.473/.814 - I'd expect 50 or 60 more ABs out of Barrett (10-game suspension and DL time), on the other hand, Blanco was not as bad offensively in 2006 as he usually is. Call it a wash. LF - .280/.346/.428/.774 - Murton and Floyd should both improve on this line. My guess is 50+ points of improvement in OPS (mostly coming from SLG). CF - .294/.333/.393/.725 - Even if Soriano reverts to career numbers, he beats this line. Expect at least 75 point of improvement in OPS (almost all SLG). RF - .288/.337/.498/.835 - we might see regression here. If JJ reverts to norm, you might lose 60 points of OPS, but how long does that go on before DeRosa's platooning in RF? Or Pie is brought up? My guess is -30 points of OPS. So overall, while OBP isn't likely to improve nearly as much as the Cubs need it to, the overall bump in OPS could be 250 or more points. That's like replacing Izturis in the lineup with Scott Rolen or Andruw Jones. Pitching? 1 Zambrano 214 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 3.41 ERA 2 Maddux 136, 1.29, 4.69 3 Marshall 125, 1.52, 5.59 4 Hill 99, 1.23, 4.17 5 Marmol 77, 1.69, 6.08 Starters overall: 5.19 ERA Relievers: 4.04 ERA It's not hard to imagine that Zambrano/Lilly/Hill/Marquis/Prior/Miller/Guzman could put up significantly better numbers this year. The roster improvements are enough to get the Cubs to respectable (.500) and in contention (85-90 wins) with some luck.

1. Not so sure many (if any) would claim Prior. Claiming him would merely mean that he gets pulled back, DL'd and sent down for a 30-day rehab stint. So, the incentive to block a straight assignment to AAA is probably not work the ill will. Plus there's always the small chance you'd end up with his $3.65 mil. salary and him on the DL or ineffective all year. (btw- as others mentioned, he has options but he has four years service time, so the waivers apply. At five years he can veto the assignment.) 2. Eyre, Ohman, or Novoa. (No idea where.) 3. Opening day? It won't be over all at once, but the second-guessing will begin when the games start to matter.

Awesome. This should've been a no brainer, but with his down time it wasn't. Lou keeps making the right moves.

Theriot's been proving himself for his last 180 ABs now. His should get lots of playing time until he proves unworthy of it. I'd take Theriot at 2B against LH pitching (w/ DeRosa in RF) and as much time at SS as I can get.

Jaque Jones for Todd Walker anyone?

I'm surprised Moore didn't get more of a look. He had what? 3-4 ABs?

Looks right to me. It should be the 40-man less Moore, Samardzija, Rapada & Dopirak, plus the remaining NRIs.

Indifferent. :) It probably won't hurt, but I doubt it's going to make a big difference.