CubFanPhilly

The first time Izturis goes on the 15-day DL Theriot replaces him and we never look back XXfingersXX

What's your bid Tim? It depends on the accounting. Can I amortize the bid money over the duration of the 6 years he'd be under my control (i.e. - the expected life of the asset)? I'd probably go $24M, then consider his salary to start off with an extra $4M in each year. It is probably foolish to assume that any pitcher is going to pitch for six years, though. I might go as high as $21M, just on the theory that someone else will go $20M, but I think $25M-$30M is a bluff. At some point you're better off signing Zito AND Schmidt vs. Matsuzaka just to hedge the injury risk. That woud make my guesstimate of the total cost: 6 yrs / roughly $72 mil (7,7,7,8,10,12+21 posting fee) A gamble, but it's fairly clear he's the best available starter.

This is a good point. I've heard Burrell and Abreu criticized by several fans for not being aggressive enough. That's a bizarre thought from a Cub fan's perspective - God knows (but apparently Hendry doesn't) that we need more patient hitters. But the Phillies fans have groaned for years when Abreu or Burrell take a walk in an RBI situation only to have the abyss that's been the bottom of their order make the third out. I think the Phillies want a more aggressive middle of the order hitter. --->JJ's got aggressive figured out.

Except the Eagles, Cheesesteak and (usually) their mothers.

O'Neal is the third trainer in, what, the last five years? And he's only been around the last two. I question whether it's the trainer.

If ARAM goes, I think you have to pencil in Moore at 3B and do the best you can with the OF, SS, and 2B. Unless, of course, Cabrera is both available and willing/able to play 3B. I also think if ARAM walks it's pointless to spend $115 mil. , but if I HAD to spend the money it's: Murton Soriano Lee A-Rod/Tejada (at whatever the cost) Drew/Burrell/Jenkins/C. Lee Moore Barett Pie (or Lofton leading off if Pie is dealt) ... and spend all the remaining money (rougly $15-18 mil.) on a starter and Wood. Almost all of the guys we're discussing are RH. I think it's very likely that the lineup will be RH dominant next year.

They need two decent starters, a 3B and more help in the bullpen. I don't see them having the payroll flexibility to sign a Soriano or Lee. My prediction is a Marquis or Suppan signing, a bullpen sign, and a trade of one of their OF for another young arm or 3B prospect. Dempster, Jones and Marshall might be overly optimistic on my part, but if you modify it, throwing enough cash back their way to make signing another starter a reality, or throwing Moore or Gallagher in the mix instead of Marshall they might go for it.

Number of visits to the mound before Lou and Z's first head butt? I'm declaring the over/under is three. Or, if sooner, Z's first HR of the season.

What's your bid Tim?

Soriano and Schmidt could be our two if there are at least 15 Type A-B. Pierre leaving would give us one more. The good thing is that Daisuke would not be subject to that quota if we can land the winning bid. I read that last clause as meaning the Cubs would have to lose at least three A/Bs for the FA signing limit to be three. What are the chance that happens? Wood, Pierre, Blanco, Miller, & Mabry. How many A/Bs in that group? This might mean the Cubs part ways with Wood and Miller regardless of their willingness to sign a low-base high incentive deal. CFP

Other than an awful 2003 (just after signing his big contract) Burrell's put up solid numbers. He's not much of a personality- he's perceived as having no leadership ability / he's not a "winner". He's a poor outfielder and when he's going badly he looks lost at the plate. I've had a Phillies season ticket holder tell me, "the most aggravating thing about Burrell is that he's stupid, never learns anything at the plate. You'll see him strike out on the same combination of pitches from the same pitcher over and over..." And finally, he's not the type of guy Philly fans fall in love with. I think a lot of Phillies fans look at Burrell and see J.D. Drew (talented, smug, overpaid, underachiever...). That'll get you booed in Philly any day. But I think most Phillies fans don't "hate" Burrell. They just see his contract as the biggest obstacle to improving the team (i.e., getting more pitching). --- If the Phillies are eating at least $7 mil. they'll want a real prospect in return (pitching). My guess is that they'd want someone like Gallagher and a lesser pitching prospect and might settle for Marshall instead of Gallagher. I'd start with Dempster, Jones & Marshall and see if they bite. That'd clear some dead payroll and only costs around $3 mil per yr. But If the Phillies are not asked to eat any bad payroll or throw in cash, Jones and a marginal prospect would likely get it done. Defense should be a concern. With Burrell and Murton in the same outfield I'd want a CF who could cover A LOT of ground. CFP

My roommates and I were a Nielsen household for two years in Chicago. We had the set-top box that recorded our viewing and phoned in the data by modem each night. The Nielsen box had a remote which you used to indicate which members of the household were watching at the time. You had to update it once an hour or so. An interesting experience, but also a pain in the arse.

I agree. But he will be expensive - probably more than Schmidt and comparable to Zito with the posting fee.

Not really. Merchandise revenue is shared nearly equally among the teams, so there's little merchandising revenue to be gained. The only marginal revenue oppornunities are higher TV ratings or the notion that a high profile signing will support higher ticket prices.

:x :!: This makes Lou that much more attractive to Hendry. He gets the guy Steinbrenner was after. Please take some other job Lou.

I agree. I think Dempster's value is that of a 4th/5th starter (at best). More likely it's as a mediocre setup man in the bullpen. Eyre got $3.75 mil. per for two years with an option for a third. I doubt any GM would offer to pick up more than $2.5 mil. per over the two years left on his contract. Either that, or the Cubs take bad an equally bad contract in return. But Dempster's contract is a sunk cost. Getting out of $4-$5 mil. of the contract might be the best deal the Cubs can get. Would that $2-$2.5 mil./year be better spent on someone else? Or would the player with the bad contract they take back be more useful? (e.g., a good platoon partner for J. Jones).

Make the Yankees take Izturis and consider it done. Sign Soriano, C. Lee and Zito. Play Moore at 3B, Jones to CF until Pie's ready.

C - Barrett - $4.30M (under contract) 1B - Lee - $13.00M (under contract) 2B - Theriot/Fontenot $.35M (less than 3 years of service) 3B - Ramirez - $13.00M (4 yr/$52 mil extension $13 mil per) SS - Tejada - $12.00M (under contract) LF - Murton - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) CF - J. Jones - $5.30M (under contract) RF - L. Gonzalez $7.5 (1 yr.) C - Soto $.35M (less than 3 years of service) IF - Fontenot - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) IF - Izturis - $4.25 (under contract) OF - Pagan - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) OF - RH OF FA SP - Zambrano - $10.0M (estimate $3.5M raise from 2006) SP - Zito - $10M (5 yr./$60 mil. 9,11,14,14,12) SP - Hill - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) SP - Prior - $4.20M (estimate $0.55M raise) SP - Marshall (or Mateo, Guzman or Marmol) - $0.35M RP - Howry - $4.00M (under contract) RP - Dempster - $5.00M (under contract) RP - Ohman - $1.00M (estimate $0.39M raise) RP - Wuertz - $0.35M ( less than 3 years of service - under control) RP - Aardsma (or Novoa) - $0.35M (less than 3 years of service - under control) RP - Wood $1m base plus up to $5 mil. in incentives 50,60,70,100,150 IP RP - Rusch - $3.25M (under contract) Buyout - Wood - $3M -Deal Gallagher/choice of Izturis or Cedeno/Eyre/other prospects to Orioles for Tejada -Sign Zito, Extend Ramirez, Sign Luis Gonzalez (short-term commit and a LH bat. Sub C. Wilson if you'd prefer.). -JJ to CF. -Cedeno/Fontenot lead-off platoon. EDIT: Theriot/Fontenot lead-off platoon. Cedeno as backup if they struggle. -Sign Wood to $1mil base/$6mil with full incentives. Assuming the O's opt for Cedeno instead of Izturis, the total Payroll pencils in at $102-$107 mil. BUT, Hendry has said that buyouts are amortized in prior payrolls. And I'm hoping the Cubs get out of part of Rusch's contract. Lineup Theriot/Fontenot Murton Tejada Lee ARam Gonzalez Barrett Jones

Their payroll was $90 mil. and is due to increase $6 mil. before considering raises to Giles, Reitsma, and H. Ramirez. They probably have to move at least one big contract.

Cabrera A. Jones Zito Tejada Soriano

I think the Phillies would be interested. It's just a matter of how much cash would be coming back. I think it'd have to be at least $5 mil. per season over the two years for it to work from the Cubs' perspective.

This is good news. It's just as important as the Baker decision IMO.

Pick one. Just don't follow the strive for mediocrity and sooner or later you'll catch lighting approach of the MacPhail era. I'd set a flexible payroll budget. Flexible in the sense that you spend AFTER developing young players when you've got a foundation and a real shot at winning the thing. The Cubs could spend $70 mil, $90 mil., and $120 mil. over the next three years and win the thing, and spend less than the $100 mil., $105 mil., $110 mil. they're likely to spend. The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets have all bumped payrolls during contending periods and reduced payroll during rebuilding periods. CFP

They also think (rightly or wrongly) that Girardi blew out one of their young arms after asking the starter to come back and pitch after a rain delay.

I have a strong feeling it will be Brenly. The Trib is considering its options. If they plan to go private they'll need to sell off assets to raise cash. I think they're considering a sale of the Cubs (Fitzsimmons only denied that there is no imminent plan to sell). Hendry, Brenly & McDonough are all short-term solutions while they figure out what to do with the team. Brenly's been watching the club all year, so he has some idea of what the needs are. And he strikes me as the kind of guy who will follow the Company line. There are much better options out there, but he's a better choice than a sharp stick in the eye (Piniella). CFP