CubFanPhilly

The MacPhail resignation/firing and appointment of McDonough as interim President, plus the fact that the Trib has hired consultants to consider sale of strategic assets, all point to a 2-year transition period: 1. MacPhail resigns 2. Baker fired 3. Brenly hired (2 yr contract). Coaching staff (ex. Spier) fired. 4. Stone back to the booth 5. Negotiations with Pierre fail (I hope). 6. ARam extended 7. Wood signed 8. Trib bumps payroll to breakeven budget (around $110-115 mil.). [Fitzsimmons' ego wants to see the Cubs win and the $15-$20 mil. in profits the Cubs generate for the Trib won't sink him or save him.] 9. Soriano signed 10. Zito signed 11. Miller (or other back of rotation starter) signed 12. OF bat to platoon with Jones signed. 13. Izturis and Dempster dealt for bench/bullpen filler. 14. Matthews Jr. or Lofton signed to fill CF until Pie is ready.

I'd prefer half the pile of money, half the farm, and Tejada over Soriano, but I understand your point. Cabrera is aiming higher, but how much more "farm" can the Marlins fit on their roster? IMO they'll want a couple of cheap QUALITY proven players in that deal. Murton & Hill are the closest thing the Cubs have and that's woefully short IMO.

Perhaps. I'd sell it as a 50-50 platoon and some ABs backing up Lee. But there are other options for a RH bat in RF. I agree the price might be higher than I've suggested. But Tejada is another year older. At some point he may have to shift to 2B or 3B. And there just aren't a lot of teams in a position to take on his contract (particluarly teams that don't already have SS locked up). I think that's probably right. Hendry doesn't risk a deal like this (but I can dream it up, right?).

Funny. I wondered if the O's would do it. I agree that Tejada's going to be declining 31-34. I also agree that it might not be enough to make a contending offense. Tone down the prospects offered if you'd like, but Baltimore isn't getting any "lock" back either (Hill included). Yes, it's three of the Cubs top 10-15 prospects and (arguably 2 of the top 5). But there aren't many .800+ career OPS MI making $12 mil. either. From the O's perspective their pitching improves, their offense takes a hit, and if one of the prospects pans out it's a good deal (two work out and it's a very good deal). Bottomline for me is that Tejada at 31 yrs with a 3 yr contract is a safer bet than Soriano for 5/$70 mil. CFP

I think a deal for Tejada has significant benefits over signing a Soriano or Lee. Of course the O'/Angelos can be difficult to deal with, so who knows if it's possible? Pie, Gallagher, Moore, Izturis, and Wuertz or Ohman to Baltimore Tejada and Patterson to Chicago The O's get about $10-11 mil. in payroll relief, a solid arm for their bullpen, solid prospects for holes in CF and 3B, a good 3/4/5 starter prospect and a fill-in for SS with excellent glove. They don't replace the offense lost, but they get some cash to sign a premium starter or a decent bat. Cubs add power and OBP. CPatt hits at the bottom of the order where he seems more comfortable. Alternative: Subtract Pie, Moore, and Patterson from the deal and substitute Hill. Then... -Re-sign ARAM -Sign Zito or Schmidt -Extend Zambrano -Sign Wood to the low base/high incentive deal -Sign C. Wilson to platoon in RF -Sign Miller or a low-cost back of the rotation starter The Cubs' payroll pencils out to roughly $100-$105 mil. Lineup Theriot/Fontenot Murton Lee Tejada ARam Jones/Wilson Barrett Patterson (or Pie) [The lineup should produce 180-190 HRs and have a better OBP.] Bench Fontenot Cedeno Wilson Pagan Sing/Restovich Soto Rotation Zambrano Zito/Schmidt Hill/Miller/FA Prior Marshall/Marmol/Guzman/Mateo Bullpen Wood Howry Eyre Dempster Ohman/Wuertz Novoa/Aarsdsma/Guzman/Mateo Please don't turn this into another CPatt debate. I know it'd be tough for him to return to Wrigley. And if there's a way to subtract Pie & Patterson, I'm all for it. But Baker (and perhaps the rest of the coaching staff) is gone. I think the fans would give CPatt at least a grace period (after all the Cubs are getting Tejada in the deal). Hendry isn't obligated to disclose whether the O's inserted CPatt into the deal or the Cubs asked for him. There would be difficult decisions to make in 2008. Payroll would balloon if a couple of Wood/Prior/Miller/Patterson rebound. But there would also be opportunities to dump some salary as guys like Jones/ Dempster / Eyre/ Howry reach the end of their contracts. CFP

Pagan's 2006 OPS = .713 Pierre's Career OPS = .729 That tells me two things: Juan Pierre should be nowhere near this team next season, and Pagan's only role should be 5th outfielder or temporary filler until you call up Pie or deal for someone like A. Jones or V. Wells. btw- I know Pierre steals bases, chases down fly balls, leads off, pressures the pitcher when he's on base. All of that doesn't come close to justifying paying the guy $5-6 mil.+

The Cubs under-achieved? Who underachived? Barrett, RAM, Pierre, Zambrano, Murton, all had good years. Heck, even Jones had a decent year with the bat. I don't think they underachieved I think they are just poorly construced and a bad baseball team. They never had a starting staff to compete with going into the season...When Williams and Rusch are counted on you have problems. I won't argue that they weren't a mediocre team on paper, but they weren't a .400 team going into the season (my guess was 82-89 wins). No $95 mil. team should ever be a .400 ballclub. The problem lies equally with 1) Hendry blowing several million on mediocre players (Neifi, Rusch, Dempster, Mabry, Nevin, and Blanco); 2) unfortunate circumstances such as Lee, Prior & Wood. (Hendry could've done more to insure against Wood & Prior); 3) a poor manager who did more harm than good; and 4) under-achievement by several players: ARAM (sorry, the late comeback in a meaningless season doesn't get you off the hook), Pierre (though I don't really count it against him - he just ins't good), Cedeno, Dempster, Williamson, J. Williams, Guzman, Hairston, & Mabry. IMO there were only a few guys who performed as well or better than expected: Zambrano, Murton, Barrett, Marshall, Walker, Jones, Hill (of late), Maddux, Blanco, Theriot, & Mateo.

Based on their respective talent levels, the Marlins over-achieved and the Cubs under-achieved this year. The Cubs have a $95 mil. payroll and the Marlins a $15 mil. payroll. The Cubs sell out nearly every ball game, the Marlins never draw until they make a post season appearance. Cub's ownership just wants to compete in their division. Marlin's ownership wants to meddle/second-guess game decisions. The Trib is a faceless entity with a CEO who's a fan. Loria is a jerk. A .500 season in 2007 would be celebrated as progress by the Chicago media (and too many fans). I'd take the job in Chicago.

I think that $6 mil. is the upper range for each of them. And obviously (though I didn't say it) most of that has to be based on incentives. I think Wood might be worth the gamble if you think he can work in the pen - and particularly if you think there's any chance he makes it back into the rotation. Miller, I'm not so sure about, though he's looked decent in his last couple of starts. The trouble I see is that you can't have Wood, Prior, and Miller all signed - there's just too much risk that all three don't contribute in 2007.

That's what worries me is that this and Pierre would be Hendry's big "free agent" signings. I don't doubt it, but just shoot me if it's so. Hendry's gotta feel like his job is on the line though. My guess is he resigns A-Ram, locks up Zambrano & Barrett, signs Pierre (3/20), W. Miller (1/6), Wood (1/6), Suppan and a bat like Craig Wilson. In other words, woefully short of turning this into a contending team. A Pierre signing is the first domino. After slappy is signed, the only way to save the off season is a blockbuster deal for Tejada or Cabrera. CFP

Offer A-Ram the best deal you can afford. Too me that's $12-$13 mil. per for 4-5 years. Either he wants to stay with the Cubs, or he's looking to maximize his value. If it's the former, any reasonable offer should land him. If it's the latter, the only way you sign him is to overpay. Does any think the Cubs should overpay given all of the other deficiencies on this team?

It depends on how far you look back. Obviously the Cubs were over .500 looking back from 2004 to 2001. But if you look at a minimum of five seasons, you have to go all the way back to 1906 to get above .500. 1906-today .502 1876-today 9834-9286 .514 I guess we all just missed the glory years.

Glendon is a DQP. Dempster is a trade (along with a big box of cash). Both are factored into the payroll total.

Indeed they might. But if even half of the young players on that roster played above replacement value, you'd go into '08 with $35 mil. to spend and a core of Zambrano, Lee, Barrett, & (hopefully) Prior. You'd have ML-proven cheap young players to deal. Keep the best 4-5 and you're sitting a lot better than if you sign a bunch of Jacque Joneses to fill the gaps. CFP

Agreed 100%. It would take an extraordinary amout of luck (Prior, Wood, Lee all coming back very strong and no key injuries next season) - OR - the Trib pumping up the payroll budget and Hendry doing something smart with it. Both are unlikely. When you've got that many unknowns, you regroup and rebuild. Save the money and spend it when it's going to put the team over the top. CFP

You're right, Zito and Soriano are investments, but if you're not smart about it, those signings will crowd out other productive players. My point is that if you pay five players big bucks (Zambrano, Zito, Lee, Soriano, ARam), and spend $15 mil. plus in the bullpen there isn't room for the $8 mil. guy unless you have rookies playing 2,3, even 4 positions. The way for the Cubs to get to 6 or 7 studs is to find out which 5-6 rookies can do a solid job and to stop wasting the $3-5 mil. each on veteran stopgaps. I'd much rather spend another season not competing to find out which young players the Cubs can count on an to reinvest the savings into a contending team in '08 and '09. CFP

Please Hendry. Don't re-sign Pierre - the first domino in pathetic attempt to get back to "respectable". Give me one of these rosters next season: Option 1 - $105 mil. payroll Option 2 - $75 mil. payroll (roll the $30 mil. saved into '08-'09) LINEUP LINEUP Matthews, Jr. CF Theriot/Fontenot 2B Murton LF Murton LF Soriano 2B Lee 1B D. Lee 1B Jones RF A. Ram 3B Barrett C Barrett C Pie CF Jones RF Moore 3B Izturis SS Izturis SS ROTATION ROTATION Zambrano Zambrano Zito Hill Guzman/Mateo Prior Hill/Marshall Guzman Prior Marshall BENCH BENCH Theriot Fontenot Cedeno Cedeno Moore Hoffpauir Pagan Pagan Soto or Reyes Soto or Reyes Restovich/Pie (mid-year) Restovich BULLPEN BULLPEN Wood Wood Eyre Eyre Howry Howry Dempster Ohman Ohman Wuertz Wuertz Mateo/Marmol Option 1 probably means that Barrett or Prior is gone after 2007. Option 2 gives the flexibility to sign any/all of Barrett/Prior/Wood. I think I'd take my chances with the young guys. Find out who can play and who can't over a full season. Build some trade value and take a bushel of money into the 2007-2008 offseason to fill the inevitable 3 or 4 holes in your lineup and rotation. You might even get the fans on board if you committ to a re-building plan with a new manager and coaching staff (Girardi, Von Joshua, et. al. please). Which team would you rather watch in 2007? But instead we'll see Pierre re-signed along with a couple of washed-up veterans off the scrap heap. CFP

OK, I guess that could be what Hendry is thinking. But if ARam goes, signing any vet stopgap like David Bell would only compound the blunder. There's little chance Hendry could replace Aram's production on top of all the other holes in this offense (even with the money, the talent just isn't available in the FA pool). Signing a guy like Bell just burns payroll and creates another deficient spot in the lineup. If ARam goes, Moore is the only rational choice. If ARam goes, the only play is to stick with all of the young pitching and young position players and hope they perform well enough to fill a few spots or create trade value. Save payroll in '07 to make a run at FAs in the '07-'08 offseason. Of course, that's not the Cubs M.O. They aren't thinking two or three years ahead. Instead, they'll set a budget of "X" (5% more that the previous year), spend that amount, and hype the their mediocre FA signings in hopes of selling another 3 million tickets next season. It's the "be mediocre long enough and sooner or later you're likely to catch lightning approach". And it's stupid. CFP

Burrell in a corner and Jones in CF would be a good start to the '07 outfield from a offensive perspective. But it'd be downright scary from a defensive point of view. While Jones' arm would look a lot better than Pierre's in CF, Burrell's ability to judge a fly ball is DUNN-like. Bottom line is I'd like to see the Cubs acquire Burrell if it takes little to get him. On the other hand, I'd much rather see them trade for Abreu even if it means giving up something more valuable. CFP

Hey! I'd be offended by that (if it weren't true).

Here's what I'd do to salvage something from this train wreck: POSITION STARTERS Barrett - hold Lee - hold Walker - DEAL (I doubt he's interested in coming back anyway.) Cedeno - hold ARam - hold Murton - (hold unless part of a deal for a Cabrera/Abreu type). Pierre - DEAL! for whatever you can get (there's no way you can offer arbitration and hope for compensation picks) Jones - DEAL! for any "B" or better prospect (and consider yourself lucky JH) BENCH Nevin - DEAL (won't bring much, but can probably be dealt) Mabry - hold/deal (won't bring anything anyway) Neifi - (see Mabry) Blanco - (see Mabry; bring Soto up if you can get someone to take him) Bynum - hold/DFA Womack - DEAL/DFA DL Rusch - hold (I'll explain below) Williamson - DEAL Wood - shut down for the rest of the season/discuss a 1-yr "rehab/make good" contract base of $2 mil with incentives up to $5 mil. if he can break back into the rotation or bullpen next season Miller - DEAL by deadline if he can make a couple of solid starts soon - otherwise discuss same deal as Wood Pagan - hold/DFA (play him in Sept. and see if he can generate some value) STARTERS 1) Zambrano - strict 90-pitch count limit for the rest of the season 2) Prior - 90 pitch limit Maddux - DEAL (LA or SD) 3) Marshall - 90 pitch limit - shut him down at 160 IP 4) Hill - bring up to fill-in for Maddux the rest of the way 5) Guzman - 5th starter Marmol - down until September Williams - up when Marshall gets shut down BULLPEN Rusch - I want two 60-pitch mop-up outings a week. He's going to get abuse on his arm AND from the fans (it won't be pretty). But MAYBE he pitches well enough to convince some fool GM that he's a ML pitcher and the Cubs get out of some of his '07 money? Aardsma/Novoa/Wuertz/Ohman - more mop-up duty - let's see who's ready to stick next season. Howry - limited use / DEAL ONLY IF a great deal comes along Eyre - ditto Dempster - DEAL (agree with Gooney's comments elsewhere) CALL-UPS Pie (for Pierre) Marmol (September) Wuertz (when Williamson and/or Dempster is dealt) Hill (for Maddux) Soto (Sept. /earlier if you can move Blanco) Restovich Fontenot It'd be ugly, but we might find out if some of these guys are ready to contribute next season. CFP

You have to think BIG!. The Cubs were 14-10 and are 12-32 since. At that .272 clip, they're on a pace for 52-110. That'd easily set the franchise record. If you're going to be bad - be REALLY bad.

Barrett!!!

FWIW - Furcal is on the same pace.

"THE FLESHY PART OF THE ARM" Tony: Look kid, selling a business is complicated. Fitzsimmons: Well Wirtz's offer seems fair. I think I want to go with it. Tony: These things are complicated. Paulie: Do you you even know what your "eh-bidda" is? Fitzsimmons: No. What's "eh-bidda"? Paulie: It gives us a true picture of the value of a bizness: Earnings Before Interest Taxes and "A-MORE'-tiz-ation". Tony: Look, kid. Why don't you let us crunch the numbers. There are lots of buyers out there. Let us make sure you're getting a good deal. Fitzsimmons: Well, uh, sure... Tony. Whatever you guys think. [exits] ------ Tony: Get the Cuban up here. I need my W-2 and supplemental health insurance! Paulie: Whatever you say boss. ------- Meanwhile.... TLR: Look Grady, I'm getting a little tired of the attention this Cubs team is getting. I think it's time their MVP had a little "accident' Grady: Gee boss, I don't know. The Cubs took me in when I was down - looked after me and all. TLR: Don't make me remind you how you got that managing job, or those pictures we have. Put Furcal on it. They'll never suspect a thing. And you can tell him to make it a contusion on the fleshy part of the arm - nothin' more than a 15-day DL stint. That better? Grady: Sure boss. You know I'd do anything for you.