yeah, that's not true at all. after all, he's not playing for free. also, i'd rather have marshall out there than lieber. so i'd say the worst case scenario is lieber sucks, steals $3.5 mil and the cubs lose games because a better pitcher loses starts. or, the cubs could trade marquis/dempster, lieber (predictably) gets hurt, and the cubs are thin in the rotation. Worst case depends on when the incentives kick in. If he makes a million just for showing up the first month and helps lose games, then we could be talking about a lower worst case scenario than what you pointed out.