From The Hardball Times vis MLBTR: [b]Jake Peavy from San Diego to the White Sox for Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Adam Russell and Dexter Carter Ladies and gentlemen, behold possibly the worst deadline deal in recent memory. Jake Peavy may or may not pitch again this year. Over the last year and a half, he's been on the shelf for roughly one-third of the time. And, he's locked into a deal that pays him more than he would receive on the open market today. Now, the current projection I have for Peavy may well be a bit harsh; when healthy, he's one of the top five to eight starters in the game, and that projection would imply he's somewhere around the 25th. But I don't feel comfortable just completely ignoring the injury history, especially since they included elbow issues last year. Just for the sake of argument, here's how Peavy looks if he essentially returns to '06-'07 form and stays there: It's still a terrible deal. Now, you know what? This is going to be a silent killer; like the Carlos Lee contract. What I mean is, nobody really pays attention to how bad of a contract Carlos Lee has because he's meeting expectations with the bat, and Minute Maid Park makes it look even better, so no perception exists that Houston didn't get the player they signed. If you were a .300 hitter, then signed a $15 million contract, and continued to hit .300, nobody calls you overpaid, even if you were only worth $12 million a year to begin with. The worst aspects of that contract (the $4 million or so a year he's overpaid along with the length of the contract the late years) are invisible; when you're watching Lee put up a .900 OPS, it doesn't immediately strike you that his overpriced contract comes at the expense of other areas of the roster, or that he's going to be a huge drag on the organization pretty soon. I imagine it will be the same with Peavy. Regardless of what happens for the rest of 2009, 12 months from now, all people will really think about is that Jake Peavy is one of the top pitchers in the game, and Kenny Williams went and got him. The fact that controlling fourth starters and middle relief pitchers like Richard and Russell through arbitration (instead of buying them on the open market) is a tremendous asset for an organization is just not what's on the mind of a ChiSox fan while he's watching Jake Peavy shut out the Tigers next July. The fact that what you're paying Peavy could have bought you much more value on the open market will be forgotten by then. Odds are Poreda is not going to be leading a rotation into a World Series in the next couple years. Carter may not have a year of service time before Peavy's contract is up. So, despite their value (both present in terms of trading capital, and future in terms of on-field), nobody is going to say "Oh ####, Kenny Williams blew it" anytime soon, or likely ever. So, unless Peavy continues to blow himself up with injuries, Kenny Williams is going to get praised for this move, whether in October, next July, 2011, or all of the above. But the people doing the praising will not be taking an adequate measure of the pros and cons of the choice he made at the time, which was abominable. If you saw a guy leaving a poker table with $50,000, you'd think he played like a master. But you weren't there to see that he sat down with $500,000. Kenny Williams is that guy. Adam Guttridge is a recent graduate seeking to continue his baseball career. Employment offers can be sent to adam_guttridge@yahoo.com. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/b] The charts didn't copy, here is the link: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/applying-the-guttridge-wang-trade-model-to-this-years-deadline-trades/