Consider this, if you would: Your concern about BABIP alone is very well-founded. By itself, there's no way to know if a guy has a low BABIP because he's hitting soft stuff everywhere or if he's getting unlucky. However, that's where line drive percentage (LD%) comes into play. LD% basically tells you how hard a guy is hitting the ball - how many line drives he's hit. If his LD% is high, then he's hitting the ball very hard and the low BABIP means he's been unlucky. If a guy has a low LD%, then he's not hitting the ball very hard and his low BABIP is well-earned. Now, if we look at Ian Stewart, his LD% is currently at 17.9%, which is just a little bit off of his career 18.8% LD%. So he's hitting the ball about as hard as he normally has throughout his career and you would assume that with normal luck, his BABIP should be around his career average. However, his current .221 BABIP is 68 points below his career .289 BABIP. So what that tells us is that he's hitting the ball almost as hard as he ever has in his career, but that he's having a lot of those hard hit balls go right at defenders. Thus, the belief that he's had a lot of bad luck this year. I think he already addressed this well-stated argument by saying Stewart was hitting soft line drives, not hard hit balls. But I'm not going back through all of these pages, and his ramblings, to verify that. Oh, and I agree with what you said.