third eye

It's not you. I think it is a function of the board collectively having less to b**ch about. That is a good thing. We are an argumentative type here.

False Cut him some slack. The computer has been acting up tonight ;)

Should they shut down the Royals because they haven't done well for 20 plus years. I don't think so. I have been to their ballpark and it is really beautiful. They add a really great family, small town feeling at the ballpark. That is something the MLB needs from some teams. Why should they have a team when they can't be competitive, can't draw fans, can't keep their good players, etc etc. Having franchises like the Royals and Pirates casts a dark cloud over the MLB. Other small market teams have proven you can win with a small payroll, but these 2 teams can't even figure out a way to do that. Hell, the Twins traded away arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball for nothing and still found a way to compete for the umteenth straight year. I dont know about liquidaing the franchise, but there should be some rule against owners who have no interest in building a contending team. Theres a difference between teams like the Giants and Padres who are clearly having an off or rebuilding year and these teams like the Pirates and Royals that are constantly in a rebuiling phase, and everytime they bring up a successful player, they cant wait to trade them. Other teams like the Orioles and Blue Jays seem to eb perenially bad, but at least they try, and attempt to keep there players around and sign free agents. When guys like Mark Grudzielanek and Gil Meche are considered big free agent signings, theres something wrong with your organization. The GM the Pirates brought in seems to have a clue about what to look for. I don't think you can start thinking about contraction because the last GM left a wasteland in his wake. I actually think they are headed in the right direction. There is a good interview with the new GM on FJM. Worth a read.

Yup, and I actually like the fact that there is friendly banter between the fans of both teams here in general. FWIW, I don't think ELCABALLO was trying to start anything. Just pointing out the fact that the rotation juggle was immaterial for today's purposes.

:-k

I'm projecting this to October and frankly, I'm not looking forward to a tight game with Ted pitching to, say, Manny. By then, though, the Cubs would have a 3-0 series lead, at the least, and there's no way the Cubs would drop 3 in a row, 2 at home, with Dempster, Zambrano and Harden going. ;) Yes, your comment was tongue in cheek, but the stoploss value of having 3 aces in that type of a series (I'm assuming this was a jab at the 2003 NLCS) is pretty important. Anyway, it's fun to be able to talk about those scenarios now :)

See what I'm sayin' fred?

Would be beautiful to see that painted on the Wrigley grass.

somehow this dont jive with the scoreboard Oh, poop !! Fred, I think your database doesn't know how to handle the awesomeness of this team. My favorite was when it completely stroked out on the 100 win projection.

It helps that the Brewers are among the league leaders in IP by starters (meaning their bullpen has thrown fewer innings than just about everyone else), but I agree that it seems to be pretty unsustainable. There's something to be said about winning close games, but 24 of their 74 wins being by 1 run is pretty ridiculous. And maybe I'm being a bit of a homer here (and feel free to call me out on it if this is silly), but I don't think the Brewers' bullpen is as bad as it's been made out to be. Everyone looks at Gagne's problems and thinks it's indicative of the entire bullpen struggling, but the bullpen ERA is right around league average. ESPN.com has their current team ERA ("as reliever" split) at 3.88, good enough for 6th in the NL. The Cubs are 5th at 3.86. Again, it probably helps that they pitch so few innings lately, but they're far from atrocious. I think you've been far from a homer. I have actually enjoyed reading the objectivity in your posts, and I hope you continue to share with this board.

24 for a playoff spot. 28 for the division. 24 is the Stl number -- I think the 2nd place NL East team (Phils or Mets) has an excellent chance of passing the Cards before a clinch date, so 24 is a little misleading. It's lower than 24 for the Phils, so 24 is accurate for the time being. Sure it's accurate, but my point is there's obviously a difference between a magic # to eliminate a team with no competition, compared to the same magic # to eliminate a team with a very good team right on their tail. Any bond future traders out there will recognize this effect as the cheapest to deliver option in T-bond futures. Right now Stl is the "cheapest to deliver" bond, but the 2nd cheapest bond (Phil) is a close 2nd, and it significantly affects pricing. Didn't LTCM place a big leveraged arb bet on the the cheapest to deliver spreads for Russian bonds in 1997/1998? that arb didnt work out so well for them if I recall :-"

On Cubs.com they have some video of it. He was getting a great reception. It was right up there with Pie and Ward's homers this year in terms of making me happy for the guy as much as for the team. I hope he can keep that up. Even if he can get back to decent, it'll really give the Cubs a shot in the arm. That's the scary thing about the Cubs, is that the whole offense isn't clicking together. It's either Soriano carrying the team for about a week, then DeRo, or Edmonds, or ARam...etc, etc. If this offense clicks together, it's over. I know, it's scary to think of what this team could do when firing on all pistons. That's actually what makes me really optimistic about the playoffs. Even an off performance in one facet of the game won't shut down this team. It's also what makes a 2004 style collapse even less likely.

I wonder if the middle of the order will have a September power binge again. I personally hate hearing the excuses about day games, but it might make sense that players get fatigued in August when when they have to play more days games.

Len was saying he may have tweaked something in his shoulder, which has given him some problems over the last few years. I hadn't heard too much about that, but I wonder if it's been a lingering problem the last couple of months. May be an explanation for his inability to get loft on the ball? If so, a little rest to let the shoulder recover would be a good thing.

Ah, but in those counting stats, he was below 80% in SB%, so was he really adding production in those years? I was actually shocked to find that Pierre's SB% has been up over 80% the last two years. His speed is actually adding a marginal amount to his productivity. Theriot has been so bad in stealing bases this year that even the ESPN idiots have noted that he would be better off not trying.

Its really a backhanded complement though. Yes, hes produced and been a nice surprise but I wouldn't say hes awesome. I would say hes having a fairly awesome year, but as the stat shows, its because hes pacing (and I do mean pacing) the league in batted balls that fall for singles. As you can see a lot of guys on that list are not great players. Guess who lead the NL in singles for all but two years since 2001 (he came in second those years)? You guessed it (or at least you should have), Juan Pierre. Now, Pierre had a 6.0% career K rate (to Theriot's 9.8%), which is how he did it all those years, but its a rare type of player who has the contact and utter and complete lack of power that can lead the league in singles year after year. How does Theriot's LD% compare to Pierre's? I always got the sense that Pierre's singles total was padded by weak grounders that he was able to outrun. Theriot doesn't have that speed and it seems like the majority of his hits are line drives over or between the infielders. *subjective memory bias disclaimer*

Gah, this one is going to kill our pythags. Nuts. Edit: Adding a :) so that I'm not labeled part of the suicide brigade.

Your starter descriptions remind me of the "real men of genius" commercials. I like the theme.

Wouldn't have expected Hank White to rock the GQ look so effortlessly. I would have guessed more of a Frankenstein in an ill-fitting short suit for him.

Well I wouldn't expect a guy with a Fukudome picture as his avatar to accept any warranted criticism of this team. Heh, really? Poor flustered little darling. You've had a busy night! Good one. You really got me. careful he might foe you. :rotfl: Did you angrily curse God the day CubsGM was banned? Really? What was it for? Besides the usual nonsense, that is. As for tonight's game, meh, they happen to every good team. Even in the playoffs. For a team that had won 16 of its past 20, I'd expect more slack for an off day. If it becomes more a matter of practice, that would be a different story. For now, it is just a regular loss. No biggie.

smoke 'em if you got 'em

?? Nevermind. I had another brain fart. I was thinking of someone else. We should still be pounding Arroyo, though. I gotta lay off the sauce. Nah, you're just building up tolerance for your upcoming October bender (the fun kind, not the drown-your-sorrows kind)

I can't either. Maybe a gapper or two here and there. Though I can think of worse things than having a high OPS 3-outcome guy in CF. :)

.380 OBP with men on this year - I suspect that having a more productive bottom of the order, and therefore more men on base when he bats, leads pitchers to pitch somewhat around him with Theriot on deck this year. It looks like a greater variation in his situational OBP this year vs others in his career. Additionally, with runners on 2nd and 3rd, he's drawn 7 walks in 18 plate appearances. Small sample size, sure, but it makes sense from a pitcher's perspective. Edit: The variation exists in IsoD as well, so this is not just avg driven.

Without question!