RichHillIsABeast

Why isn't Dunn an "elite" offensive LFer? He's 2nd in walks and HRs, and 7th in OBP., SLG, and OPS. I'd say top 10 in those categories makes him elite. Who cares if strikes out or doesn't hit for a high average? But that's just me. I'll take Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds, Migual Cabrera, and Manny Rameriz any day of the week to play LF for me. 15 runs over the course of a seson is not that important. There are 18 ML left fielders with 500+ PA. Dunn is 5th in OBP and SLG. 5th place doesn't even put him in the top 25%. Yeah, "elite" isn't the word I'd use to describe Dunn's offense. Is he good or above average offensively? Absolutely. But, when you take defense into account, he become very average overall in LF.

i don't think we should give up hill to get dunn, we need every good pitcher we can. a very good starting staff is worth much more than a team with a good OBP--that said, dunn's butchery in the field makes little difference to his value. He costs you round about 15-20 runs in 150 games. It's not negligible. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_and_league_200_innings/ Subtract that from his power numbers and he is way, way on the plus side. BTW> I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers at all. Are you kidding me? Dunn cost the Reds at least 3 runs in our opening series against them. One fricking series. Go back and watch that series if you have it on tape, or MLB.TV. Yes, Dunn's offense more than makes up for his defense, but it brings his net worth as a player down. He's not an elite offensive LF anyway and his D just further detracts from his value. There's a reason why he was supposed to move to 1B until Hatteburg showed up. OBP is great, but it's not the be-all, end-all to baseball. There are other ways to make a winning team besides an OBP stacked lineup. Pitching and defense do count. Anyone heard of the Oakland A's? They don't have OBP monsters anymore and still win games. OBP doesn't hurt and it is important, but other factors matter. You don't just look at someone's OBP and ignore their other shortcomings and expect to field a winning team.

Pierre stinks. It doesn't matter where in the lineup you put his no power, no walk, noodle arm. He still sucks runs out of the lineup under the 'guise of speed. That's all Pierre has is speed. And he doesn't even use it effectively - career 73.5 SB%.

Or as expensive. What I like about Theriot is that he appears to be an overachiever, like Eckstein or Freel. With all the underachieving we've seen around here, it's great to see. And hey, calling Rich Hill a worthless AAAA LOOGY worked wonders, right? How can you compare Hill to Theriot? Oh, that's right, they both played in the minors. Good enough for me. Theriot has never posted a .400+ SLG in his entire minor league career.

i don't think we should give up hill to get dunn, we need every good pitcher we can. a very good starting staff is worth much more than a team with a good OBP--that said, dunn's butchery in the field makes little difference to his value. He costs you round about 15-20 runs in 150 games. It's not negligible. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_and_league_200_innings/

His defense in LF is average at best. In CF he would be among the NL's worst defenders.

If Lee doesn't come back, the last thing we should be worrying about is the state of the Chicago Cubs.

You didn't get the memo?

He smoked it to RF.

No Murton? Boooooooooooo!!!! Yeah, let's start our 4th OF in LF instead of evaluating Murton for next season. Good call.

Who said that? The assumption that he isn't on steroids anymore is based on the stricter testing. The OP was ambiguous. That's why I used a question mark in my post.

He isn't on steroids anymore b/c he can still hit? I'm not sure about the logic of that statement.

You can't accept a 4.5 #5 starter? Can you name any club that has all 5 starts with an ERA under 4.5? An innings eater is more valuable than you might beleive. As it saves the bullpen from overwork, and helps to keep them fresh. . A #5 innings eater, is something we really should get. You don't spend $5M+ on a #5 starter. It doesn't matter how many innings he pitches in a season. You use the 5 slot to evaluate minor league pitching talent, which we have.

One of the best things Hendry did this season was trade Maddux. It doesn't matter what we got in return (Izturis). Just getting the idea out of Hendry's head that Maddux deserves a spot in our rotation next season is enough. PETCOTA projects WARP for Maddux in 2007, 2008, and 2009: 3.4, 1.7, and 0.8 PECOTA had Maddux at 5.2 this season. So far he's at 5.8. Pretty close if you ask me. He was a great pitcher, but it's just about over. The amount of money he'll get based on the past makes this a no brainer. No more nostalgia necessary. I'd like to be above .500 next season. edit: and English is my first language :roll:

I'm amazed the Cubs haven't stumbled onto the field this season. Just being a fan makes me drink. I can't imagine having to put up with the losing first hand day in and day out. :lol:

Dunn is a butcher in LF. I love his BB rate and don't care about the low BA. His SLG is nice and the Ks don't bother me. But that defense really hurts his net value IMO. If he had average defense, that would be another thing. Impending FA is the other big negative about Dunn. Giving up a guy like Hill for Dunn is moronic. We aren't that close to fielding a division winning team that we should give up a potential #2 starter for a big bopper in LF. #2 starters don't grow on trees. Decent LF bats are available in FA.

Murton is more valuable than some of you think. Post ASB: .321/.385/.527/.912 He had a horrible June that killed his overall numbers and he's a good deal better than his .295/.360/.438/.798 overall line. The Cubs don't value OBP, but you can be assured they know others do and are willing to pay for it. He may get moved b/c he's not the piece we need (in Hendry's mind), but he won't be sold off for a bullpen arm or 5th starter. We don't need a filler arm for the pen or a bottom of the rotation starter. We have plenty of those on the ML roster already or in the minors. Murton also won't be moved unless we get a big bopper like Lee or Soriano in LF. Personally, I don't think the odds of that happening are very high.

Sample size makes football stats pretty much worthless. There are too many variables as well to effectively isolate a player's performance based on one stat (game after game).

Jones may be SLGing close to .500, but you'd better be when your OBP is hovering around .330. His defense was very overrated. Spiking throws into the ground instead of hitting the cutoff man and airmailing home plate consistently shows me that he doesn't work on his defensive game much. Those accuracy problems are very curable given the effort. His baserunning gaffes really irritate me. His troubles with the fans (booing a player that early was ridiculous) early on make it seem like he has a thin skin. I do like his clubhouse presence. He seems like a very nice guy, always smiling and laughing with his teammates. He has great opposite field power and hustles on the basepaths. Basically, I think Jones costs us a lot more runs with his D, bad baserunning, and low OBP than he creates with his hustle.

How can you say we can get away with his defense if you don't even know what his defensive problems are? :?

His daughter has lost vision in one of her eyes. :cry: Hopefully it's temporary. http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060917&content_id=1667409&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

I agree. Hill probably should have been doing this out of ST, but he didn't have it all figured out upstairs. The stuff hasn't changed. That isn't Hendry's fault. Hill's ETA just got pushed back a little. I'm glad he's here now. *If* Prior is healthy next season, we're looking at a filthy rotation, and that's not even considering acquisitions in the offseason.

AAAA Hill against a good offensive team (Cinci) in a bandbox: 9.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 10 K Yeah baby!!

Hill owns another batter. A 2 hit, CG shutout for da man.

Nice work, Jones.