Two players peripherals right here-both are on NL Central teams right now, both were on the same team in the years these were taken from, and one is expected to be average while the other one is not: Year 1- A-6.17 K/9, 1.97 K/BB, 2.17 G/F, 1.42 WHIP B-5.27 K/9, 1.69 K/BB, 1.59 G/F, 1.37 WHIP Year 2- A-4.35 K/9, 1.45 K/BB, 1.59 G/F, 1.32 WHIP B-5.28 K/9, 1.81 K/BB, 1.43 G/F, 1.38 WHIP Here is year 3 for one of those 2 pitchers B-4.93 K/9, 1.51 K/BB, 1.61 G/F, 1.45 WHIP Based on those peripherals, what do you think of these two pitchers? Are they both destined to be pretty bad? Where is the third year for the other pitcher? I was going to post that and make a further point after someone evaluated those two on those peripherals that were stated. Is pitcher B better than Pitcher A on those numbers? How much better? Then the obvious answer is the one who has the worse secondary stats. The point that is lost in this not so original example is that every data set has an outlier or two. In other words, just because it happened once or twice doesn't mean it is likely to happen. I'm just trying to point out that people are pointing out that Marquis's peripherals even from 2004-2005 were going to catch up to him and that last year was more indicative of the type of pitcher he was than 2004-2005 was. They are trying to say that even if he has 2004-2005 peripherals he's going to be a below average pitcher. I disagree with that-I think pitchers of that type can succeed. For people with even better ground ball rates but otherwise peripherals are very similar, look at Jake Westbrook and Aaron Cook. Then if you go down a little bit more into Marquis's range, you have pitchers like Clay Hensley, Miguel Batista, Zach Duke, Jeff Suppan, Dontrelle Willis (his 2006 was very similar to 2004 for Marquis). All of them had similar peripherals in 2006 to Marquis in 2004-2005, and all of them had ERA's that I'm sure everybody would be happy for Marquis to have (all under 4.7 I believe, and some under 4). Those are not just outliers-high ground ball pitchers can and do be average to good major league pitchers with the type of peripherals that Marquis put up in 2004-2005. Suppan (the one in the example) has successfully done it for years now-I'm sure some of the others fall into that category. Can he post 2004-2005 peripheral numbers? That's debatable, although the very early indications are encouraging on that, it's still a long way to go to be anything for sure. What I do question is if those peripherals necessarily say that he's going to be a worse than average pitcher, and I think a few pitchers in the league show that it's not as uncommon as it seems to have been said to have those peripherals and yet come out with an average to good ERA, with some pitchers able to do it year after year.