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CubColtPacer

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  1. If Murton were to be called up, he'd probably get about the same time as he did before. All of the left-handers, and a few of the right-handers for about 50% of the at-bats. It's going to take quite a bit for him to get noticed down there though-right now, he is just a slightly above average Iowa hitter in the hitters paradise that is the 2007 PCL. I certainly hope he can play well though, because the Cubs could really use his bat against left-handers. It might not be a matter of him being noticed as much as it may be Angel Pagan becoming Angel Pagan. I think most reasonable people knew he would come back to earth. Now that he is and probably will still come down some more will the Cubs come to their senses and bring up the BETTER hitter. The Cubs still need a CF to play against LH's though. Murton cannot, Pagan can. RF is less urgent with DeRosa heading out there. The Cubs need to find another option for a RH CF through a trade though because Pagan is not going to be that good either.
  2. If Murton were to be called up, he'd probably get about the same time as he did before. All of the left-handers, and a few of the right-handers for about 50% of the at-bats. It's going to take quite a bit for him to get noticed down there though-right now, he is just a slightly above average Iowa hitter in the hitters paradise that is the 2007 PCL. I certainly hope he can play well though, because the Cubs could really use his bat against left-handers.
  3. You're certainly asking the right questions. Homeruns (except for the inside-the-park variety) are not balls in play, so homeruns don't count against defensive efficiency. Hits do count against the defense. Why? Because the evidence shows that pitchers have very little (if any) influence on whether a ball in play becomes a hit or not. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-look-at-dips1/ 4 of the Cubs starting pitchers are in the top 40 in BABIP (batting average of balls in play) so far this season (min 75 innings pitched): 6. Jason Marquis 8. Rich Hill 21. Ted Lilly 29. Carlos Zambrano Z has his highest BABIP in 3 years. Ted Lilly has had 3 years of league average BABIP and 3 years below average in the past 6 years-this years number is not particularly unusual for him. There isn't much data on Hill, although last year was similar to this years (and significantly below league average). Marquis is the only one who hasn't shown a number like this years, and he has had a below average BABIP each of the last 3 years. As a whole, expecting pitchers to maintain a similar BABIP doesn't end up proving out. However, some individual pitchers can maintain a consistently average or better BABIP, and the fact that out of those 4 pitchers you mentioned, there isn't a single season in the last 3 years in which even one of those pitchers was below average in BABIP. They are good bets to be above average in that department, and that can skew the team defense metric.
  4. I don't think that will be for long. It seems to me pretty likely at this point that when Petrick is available to come back that Pie will be the position player demoted in order to get back to 12 pitchers.
  5. Let me the first to say not really then :D Seriously though, the only day he would have started was Saturday, and Ward was 1 for 3 with a RS, an RBI, and a BB, so I don't think the Cubs really missed Floyd this weekend. They have to find another bat that can hit left-handers well, if that be a big bat that can hit both sides well or a platoon player that kills left-handers. The offense is ok against right-handers (above average, an upgrade could make it great) but it is just terrible against left-handers (under a .300 OBP now against left-handers), and so if the Cubs don't have the resources to get a big bat they at least need to go find a player who only hits left-handers well and get them.
  6. My guess is that there is probably at least a 50/50 chance that Mateo is wearing another uniform next month. He has some major league experience, which other clubs like to see, but he probably isn't on Hendry's do not trade list. If there is a deal done, Mateo will probably be the pitching prospect included.
  7. Wow. Tough crowd. Can't really get too excited about a 4-3 trip against the likes of the Nationals and the Pirates. It's not exciting, but it's not terrible either. It's just kind of there.
  8. 7-0 or 6-1 on the road is an unrealistic expectation-I said that before the trip started. Look to how many teams in the NL. It's not easy to even win 7 out of 10 (before today, the Cubs were the only team in the NL to have a 7-3 record or better in their last 10 games). If we were at home against these two teams, then maybe 6-1, but on the road the highest I think one can expect is 5-2. Add in the fact the Cubs faced 3 left-handers this week, and the expectation probably goes down to 4-3, and that's exactly what they did (beat the 4 right-handers, lose to the 3 left-handers).
  9. Taking a quick look at Boise, I of course am impressed with Donaldson's start: 17 AB's, 2 HR, 2 2B, 4BB/5K .353/.476/.824 I also think Ty Wright could end up being a pretty good prospect, and his Boise numbers so far would indicate that as well: 59 AB's, 2 HR, 6 2B, 1 3B, 7BB/5K, .305/.406/.542, 3 SB/1 CS I'm especially impressed with the strikeout to walk ratio especially when you consider it with the power numbers.
  10. Harris is right up with most of those guys. I can't say it's a big problem that they are listed-everybody listed is an absolutely fantastic lineman. Harris could have easily made the list though and there would have been no problem because he is just as good. I definitely would have put him over Pryce at this point though-the others are debatable (I think he's about equal to most of the people on the list, although it is really hard to compare tackles in different types of defenses).
  11. Two pretty long extra inning games going on. Mets-Astros heading to the 15th, and Red Sox-Tigers are in the 13th.
  12. I really don't understand the Cubs power outage. This is a team that should be hitting quite a few more home runs than they are. Ramirez is slightly under what he should be. Soriano is still under what he should be. Lee is of course way under. Jones is way under. Floyd is under. Ward is under. Murton was under when he was here. DeRosa is like the only person who is over what is expected, and he's only on pace for about the same number of home runs as last year. The thing is-people like Lee, Ward, and Floyd have all hit the ball hard a good amount of the time, but all have had troubles with elevating the ball for home runs. Do you think there could be anything in the coaching that could be causing this? It's quite a mystery how so many decent to great power hitters can all have power problems in the same year, and yet many of them are hitting for average still, and sometimes career bests in average.
  13. So far, quite a good day for the Cubs. Cubs win, Brewers lose, Cardinals lose, Diamondbacks lose, Braves lose. If the Marlins can beat the Dodgers, it will be quite a day.
  14. No. Gallagher, Eyre, and Wuertz pitched in relief last night.
  15. he's good until he goes 0-4 tomorrow, then he should be released immediately Ah, that's not Jones's fault, it's Lou's for starting him against the left-hander tomorrow :D (not that I expect him to-it will be about the same lineup tomorrow as it was yesterday).
  16. It does look like that rest did some Jones good. 3 doubles in the past game and a half, a walk fighting back from an 0-2 count, and he should have had a single on that ball in the 1st. His swing doesn't look nearly as bad as it did a couple of weeks ago either.
  17. Colvin with 2 K's and a HR so far today.
  18. I've seen this a lot lately. Here's a question I have... who has the best record since June 2nd, or June 1st? Obviously not the Cubs, otherwise they would just say that. Not necessarily-that's just the time when the Cubs started winning. If they had done it since June 2nd, the Cubs might still have the best record since then, but the overall record wouldn't look as impressive.
  19. As someone else said, it was reported in San Diego that the Padres called to inquire about Dye, and the White Sox asked for Khalil Greene and Linebrink. There's no way I'd pay nearly that price for Dye.
  20. I bet at least 1 of the 2 of Ward and Jones play tonight, and quite possibly both.
  21. The same Barrett had 5 guys steal out of 5 attempts the day before with Chris Young on the mound. One of those steals was Russell Martin stealing 3rd. Barrett was never good at blocking balls, but he's been absolutely brutal this year in regards to passed balls. And 3 guys did still bases successfully against Barrett last night, including Luis Gonzalez. So basically, he nailed 1 out of 9 in the last 2 games. look at him go. That's a very old report. Barrett is now 4 out of 18. His percentage thrown out is also up because teams are running on him more than they did the combo of Bard/Bowen.
  22. 2005 at AA West Tenn (and the SL is a pitcher's league, unlike the PCL): Against RHP, 142 AB: .324/.362/592 Against LHP, 87 AB: .253/.295/.448 Can't seem to find anything before 2005. Thanks for the info guys. Where do you find MiLB splits? Anyway, I don't think there's likely to be a significant difference between what Pie can put up against LHP and what Pagan can. Pagan's OPS might be higher, but given how few ABs we'd be considering, I don't think the effect of the standings is going to be noticeable. http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/ It can sometimes be a confusing site to navigate, but it has lots of good info.
  23. The biggest reason why they should get a big bat before a starting pitcher is that there is no clear pitcher to really replace. They've all been up and down, while there are clear positions in the field where there can be a massive upgrade. So sure, you could upgrade and get an ace that would help, but the upgrade from one of Lilly/Marquis/Marshall/Hill to the new ace wouldn't be nearly as much as an upgrade at C, SS, CF, or RF. That doesn't even begin to address the fact that a great starting pitcher is the absolute hardest thing to trade for.
  24. It's certainly not stupid to sit Pie for Pagan against lefties. Really? Pagan has a .742 OPS against LHP this year, right? and .596 against LHP last year, right? Pie may not match those #s, but frankly I don't care. In 50 ABs, Pagan has a .281 OBP against LHP. Whatever Pie's #s are, the difference between them and Pagan's #s is less significant than getting our best position prospect regular ABs. I don't want Pie to be in a platoon, I want him to play every day and see all pitchers and learn to hit them. If Lou isn't prepared to do that, we need to send him to AAA (which is probably dumb b/c our CFs are so bad, that we might as well let Pie learn at this level and take advantage of his great defense). So, to reiterate, playing Jones or Pagan over Pie is just stupid. Pagan is the option that's really stupid. You could make a case that Jones has to play to boost his trade value but Pagan is just a low-ceiling prospect with no trade value. Having Pie lose starts to Pagan is indefensible. I think I could make a pretty good case that sitting a player with a .277 OPS against lefties is good for the team. We are in a race for the playoffs after all. Really? B/c it's 32 ABs, so I'd like to hear this "good case" you're going to build for sitting our #1 prospect, who is 22, for a non-prospect like Pagan, who hits LHP terribly. You realize if Pie goes 3/4 with 3 singles against a LHP in his next game, his OPS jumps like 150 points? Maybe Pie can't hit LHP and never has been able to in his career (I don't know what his MiLB splits are), but again - you're not replacing him with a great hitter. It's hard to say what the difference b/t Pagan and Pie is against LHP b/c you don't really have enough of a sample at the ML level to know how good Pie is. But again, if the choice is Pie against all pitchers, learning to hit, and getting regular ABs, or sitting him in favor of crap like Pagan, he should play every day. I don't really think Pie is going to OPS .277 against LHP if he faced them regularly, so whatever the difference is between Pagan and Pie, the 3 ABs they're going to get at the bottom of the order isn't going to make a lot of difference in our playoff chase. But please, make your "good case" - I'm all hears. Pie's AAA splits: Against RHP: 93 AB's, .462/.510/.667 Against LHP: 28 AB's, .143/.226/.214 2006: Against RHP, 400 AB's, .293/.349/.500 Against LHP, 152 AB's, .256/.322/.327 Pie is likely to have a .500 OPS or less in the major leagues against lefthanders at least this year.
  25. Hopefully he'll replace Samardzija in Peoria when it's time for Jeff to go back to ND. Haha, these posts were from July 16 and 17 of last year on the first page of this thread - and in less than a year, Billy Petrick is in the big leagues. Even funnier, I thought you were making a joke about Samardzija going back to ND to play football. If that makes any sense. ------- Unrelated, I don't see how it is possible for the Cubs are calling Samardzija's pitches. Anyway, what does it really matter? He's in the bullpen now. Samardzija has been starting for a couple of weeks now. Edit: A little late. As far as calling his pitches, the Cubs minor league coordinator is probably telling the coaching staff of Daytona the ratio of pitches and type of pitches in certain counts, and then they call the pitches from the dugout.
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