Mephistopheles

Considering his growth spurt over the last 3 years, I would think there's a chance his stuff might not have caught up by last fall. Is that possible? Given that he needs to tighten up his slider and work on his control, I'd love to see him in the rotation to get the extra innings a la Ceda at Daytona this season. This would also be a chance to see if his stuff has progressed when he starts. I would hate to have a potential front-end rotation starter to the pen when already Ceda and Marmol have been converted to the pen. You certainly right that it's possible that he did not catch up by last fall, but that's a big question. I don't see him as a potential front of the rotation guy. He's got a good fastball and a decent slider. If he could develop a third pitch it's possible. If you have a two pitch combination and you want to be a number 1, you've pretty much gotta be plus-plus on one of the pitches and at least plus on the other. Very few #1s are two pitch pitchers. Harden yes. Johnson yes. Brandon Webb yes. Harden and Johnson have two plus-pluses and Webbs sinker is like a plus-plus-plus-plus pitch. If we want him to start it's going to take him awhile to get here. Personally I'd move him into the rotation like you said, just to get more work on his secondary pitches. Force him to use them. One of the biggest problems (IMO) that teams who have drafted college closers recently is that they have left them in the pen throwing an inning. They reach the majors and their offspeed pitches haven't improved at all since they were drafted. Moving them into the rotation in the minors will force them to use them. The best example I can give is Billy Wagner. He K'd like 200 guys in the minors one year you know. The Astros drafted him with the intention on him being their closer, but they made him start in the minors to work on his slider. I'd like to see the Cubs do the same with Cashner. In the off-chance that he develops a dependable third pitch we can leave him there.

Ohh, I absolutely agree. When we are talking about K rate, thats not really going to be subject to luck, which is why I didn't use that word. Pizza Cutter has K/PA exceeding .5 r squared at 150 BF, so Shark is over that, but still, there were quite a few zeros after that decimal point!!! That's not really true. There was a fantastic article I read a year or two ago on HBT about strikeout increases w/o substantial increases in swing/miss percentages not being "real"....maybe I can get BK or Fred to spider/parse the data for me on that somehow....we only have pitch by pitch data for AAA though, I think. Maybe I can get BK or Fred to teach me how to do it myself... the samardzija was a simple binomial distribution with p = .116, again i said assuming the 11.6% K rate. Given that streaks actually exist a bit more than likely in sports, a pitcher with an 11.6 percent k rate has a higher probability than that to k 26% over that sample. Though probably not much...

I did something almost exactly like this earlier in the season, but only in reverse. I used schedule to predict "expected" records based on H/A and who a team played. Combining the two mathematically to used in in the markov chain I used earlier isn't useful, unless I use the chain to predict games against each other, which couldl be done I suppose. It's easier to use PCT3 or something since it fits in to log5.

The thing to remember about the sample size argument isn't so much "luck" in this case (or most cases). There's clearly a change in his ability/stuff/skill for this 37 inning sample. The only question is if he can keep it up, which is where the sample size argument comes into play.

this is what i was going to say. you've talked about him briefly in the past, and i'd be very interested to read a more fleshed-out analysis. I'll hold off on him until he gets a few more innings under his belt in AAA. Although before entering AAA he Kd 11.6% batters he faced. Right now he's K-ing 26.3%. The probability of this happening, assuming he was an 11.6% K-er is a whopping .000000517029921098811.

That was quick. Moved to the front. Can you add someway for me to save articles as drafts? Or am I dumb and there is a way to already do that? Also editing would be nice.

I'm really not all that original when it comes to new ideas for topics to tackle. I have a few ideas kicking around. 1. Harden Thoughts, now that the initial shock of the deal has worn off. 2. 10 Round Draft Review. 3. Prospects...though September is best for that. 4. Cubs/Brewers from here on it.

ugh alex... http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/unc/sports/m-basebl/auto_action/980452.jpeg

with derosa's condition i bit more inclined to pull the trigger on this deal, although i think mark will be fine...DID MARK ONEAL WORK ON HIM?

HarryCarry HoopsCubs I think you know where Im going with this one davhern.

maybe the question you should be asking yourself is why do the other starters on the Tigers have BABIPs under control yet Bonderman doesn't. Why is he plagued by bad defense and the others aren't? when you answer that question ill answer yours.

Meph: oh wow his xFIP is low, oh i know why? BECAUSE HE PLAYS IN COMERICA. TruffleShuffle: Meph: I didnt change the subject. The rest of the team's xFIP is not in question.

ugh, you just don't get it. you have no idea what the hell xFIP is and it shows. Since you don't know what is I am going to have to take away your privilege of using it.

my sources told me then that the cubs might be interested in him...so i floated the possibility. god im good /hoopscub

i used it because you go gaga for era. oh wow his xFIP is low, oh i know why? BECAUSE HE PLAYS IN COMERICA. until he learns not to fold it in with base runners on, he's never going to be consistent enough to be anything better than your middle to back end of the rotation fodder. His walk rate nearly doubles with runners in scoring position. That .312 BABIP for his career is legitimate. His profile fits an above 300 BABIP pitcher for the most part. He's not getting "boned" by bad defense consistently. He consistently hangs sliders in the middle of the plate that get hammered and he's an above average groundball pitcher. Those two combine for an above average BABIP for him on a consistent basis. It's not an accident. Then he complicates matters by struggling a bit with runners on.

28 year old 2Bs who arent starting 2Bs aren't worth anything.

since youre one of those people who thinks era means something: which one is out of the ordinary? 2004 91 2005 93 2006 112 2007 91

bonderman has a career 5.16 ra, he had a 5.42 ra last season - well within one standard deviation for ra.

granderson overproduced ordonez overproduced guillen's glass rentawreck overproduced rodriguez blows vina overproduced sheffield's glass bonderman sucks willis sucks rogers sucks robertson sucks verlander's going to break down zumaya's out jones sucks rodney's hurt

There's actually very little statistical analysis in this. In other words I made educated projections that are sabermetrically inclined. 1. Boston Red Sox* 2. New York Derek Jeters* 3. Cleveland Indians* 4. Los Angeles Angels* 5. Toronto Blue Jays 6. Seattle Mariners 7. Detroit Tigers 8. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 9. Kansas City Royals 10. Chicago White Sox 11. Oakland Athletics 12. Minnesota Twins 13. Texas Rangers 14. Baltimore Orioles 1. New York Mets* 2. Atlanta Braves* 3. Chicago Cubs* 4. Philadelphia Phillies 5. San Diego Padres* 6. Los Angeles Dodgers 7. Arizona Diamondbacks 8. Milwaukee Brewers 9. Cincinnati Reds 10. Colorado Rockies 11. Houston Astros 12. St. Louis Cardinals 13. Pittsburgh Pirates 14. Florida Marlins 15. Washington Nationals 16. San Francisco Giants *Playoff teams Cubs vs Braves - Cubs Padres vs Mets - Mets Indians vs Yankees - Yankees Red Sox vs Angels - Red Sox Red Sox vs Yankees - Red Sox Mets vs Cubs - Mets Red Sox vs Mets - Red Sox AL MVP 1. Alex Rodriguez 2. David Ortiz 3. Grady Sizemore 4. Vladimir Guerrero 5. Travis Hafner AL Cy Young 1. Roy Halladay 2. Josh Beckett 3. Felix Hernandez NL MVP 1. David Wright 2. Ryan Howard 3. Carlos Beltran 4. Mark Teixeira 5. Hanley Ramirez NL Cy Young 1. Jake Peavy 2. Johan Santana 3. Roy Oswalt 4. Brandon Webb 5. Rich Hill

that was one hell of a play by yunel escobar. he's got a cannon. as usual chipper boots the ball and escobar picks it up and guns out the runner. hes doing all right. sitting 91-92. hasnt really used anything but the fastball now. he threw a splitter (i think? it was at 86) that hung and was ripped up the middle for a single courtesy of kelly johnson.

lol theyre going gaga over Andruw Jones RBI totals and are amazed about how he got that many last year. Answer: Chipper batted in front of him and hit: .337/.425/.604. Rentawreck batted in front of Chipper and hit: .332/.390/.470 and Kelly Johnson hit in front of them and hit .276/.375/.457. My god it isn't rocket science you ****ing idiots. a third of his PAs came in situations with runners in scoring position. that's ridiculous. idiots

well i meant at the plate.

Thanks I was about to ask this. For those who care (me and probably on one else) the Dodgers and Braves are going Kuroda is getting the start for the Dodgers.

Well, I just read the whole thread (never looked before because I don't care about Crisp, he was never coming to the Cubs, IMHO) and it lookes to me like Meph did let it go. He made his first post and moved on. He made several other posts and never again mentioned the validity of the rumor. Then Hoops decided to call Meph out--16 days later (by Hoops own admission) to which Meph responded. Maybe you should be asking Hoops why he took Meph (saying the rumor was bunk) so personally. Who cares if Meph comments that the rumor is bunk? Many other guys did as well, just in a different manner. Maybe Hoops just should have moved on? Maybe he should have put Meph on ignore, then he wouldn't have to see Meph saying his rumors are garbage. Just my opinion. There should be room for differing views on a board this size. Bingo, this whole thing was overblown.