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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    Well I am using Japanese/Asian rhetoric.
  2. Mephistopheles
    There are a lot of things in common between Ryan Dilon and Greg Maddux as well.
  3. Mephistopheles
    there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.
  4. Mephistopheles
    bad comparison
  5. Mephistopheles
    Actually....I did have the Rays losing 200 runs allowed this year...the real secret to the Rays success hasn't been projections outsmarting people, it's realizing historically bad bullpens don't often repeat. for theriot, marcels give .284/.357/.368, this year he hit .307/.387/.359 , so marcel is projecting a few singles less. big deal. the value between these two lines is what? a handful of runs over the course of the season? I don't give a crap about that. Im more worried about the likelihood of theriot bottoming out. that's much much much more important than a single regression based projection. besides marcel doesn't give us the likelihood of him hitting .300/.380/.360 and neither does his last season. theres no value in regressing his statistics. just looking at his recent career and not doing weighting the averages like marcel is much more useful than weighting them into a single line with marcel.
  6. Mephistopheles
    i am not saying projection systems are wrong or the way they are found is wrong. theyre useless for the reasons tree said. the RMSE and such is low, but the distribution is incredibly inaccurate because of regression to the mean (i understand why this is true), and the way to avoid that is probability based projections. a projection that marcel gives is basically this "im going to cover my ass and make sure i have the lowest possible rmse on various statistics, let's not worry about the distribution because i don't care" and to answer theriot. neither one of them is useful. use a combination. the perfect one line projection system is a projection system that maps to actual stats accurately and maps to the distribution accurately. and don't play the luck card. it's partially luck but a lot of it isn't. zambrano has't had a babip over .291 in his career and hasnt had one over .280 in the last four years. that's not luck. any projection system is going to get him wrong because they consider it (or a large part of it) luck. im not really ranting on marcels but the general idea thats been accepted in chone, marcels and even pecota as well
  7. Mephistopheles
    58.8% Michigan State over Ohio State
  8. Mephistopheles
    im starting to hate these types of things myself (not just marcel). theyre fairly useless.
  9. Mephistopheles
    off the top of my head 1. Josh Vitters 2. Jeff Samardzija 3. Andrew Cashner 4. Jose Ceda 5. Ryan Flaherty 6. Jay Jackson 7. Tyler Colvin 8. Wellington Castillo 9. Hak-Ju Lee 10. Dae-Eun Rhee
  10. Mephistopheles
    I like the idea of Jason Marquis not starting.
  11. Mephistopheles
    lol at okie state jumping up so much. mizzou isnt very good. okie state is going to get exposed when they come to austin. they'll also lose to tech and ou before its all said and done. they're not a top ten team jesus. everyone knows that.
  12. Mephistopheles
    and their three losses were by nine points, total. top 25 from there 1. Southern California 2. Florida 3. Penn State 4. Texas 5. Oklahoma 6. Alabama 7. Georgia 8. California 9. Oregon State 10. TCU 11. BYU 12. Boise State 13. Texas Tech 14. Iowa 15. Arizona 16. Michigan State 17. Oklahoma State 18. Ohio State 19. Missouri 20. Georgia Tech 21. Ball State 22. Wake Forest 23. Utah 24. Boston College 25. North Carolina Conference Ratings 1 SEC 2 Big XII 3 Big Ten 4 Atlantic Coast 5 Pac 10 6 Big East 7 Mountain West 8 1-A Independents 9 WAC 10 MAC 11 Conference USA 12 Sun Belt There's a sizable gap between the Big XII and the Big Ten.
  13. Mephistopheles
    yes you did. don't lie.
  14. Mephistopheles
    because the logic is unjustified. if you had OSU behind UF before today (you all did) then UF killing number 4 and OSU barely topping number 3 shouldnt change that.
  15. Mephistopheles
    Ah, I KNEW something was missing from the college football season. Now with that post, the college football season is complete and I can enjoy the rest of the season in peace. Why is it a bad idea to judge stats in baseball when you have a small sample but when it's football, it's alright? They're two completely different sports. In football, everything is a small sample size because there's only 12-13 games where in baseball there's 162. I understand the sample size in baseball thing, but the sample size in football is the entire regular season. But how do you get a proper, clear idea based on W-L of such a small sample? Team A in a BCS conference has 0 zero losses. Team B in a BCS conference has 1 loss. Team A should be ranked ahead of team B. You can only control who you beat on your schedule. The Big 12 is better than the SEC anyways. Team A had played 1-6 BCS school, 3-3 non BCS school, 2-3 non FBS school, 3-2 non BCS school and 2-4 BCS school. None of those teams had any chance beating them. The real problem is that theyre ranked ahead of them, its that he didnt have Okie State ranked ahead of UF before this week....and you cant say okie state made a bigger statement than uf today with a straight face. youre just kidding yourself if you think so.
  16. Mephistopheles
    The real problem with wins and losses is that when two teams play each other and the game is decided late, why does one team get a positive and the other a negative. close games are decided by one or two plays. that's it. what we *should* take from a game like that is not that one team won and one lost, but that both teams played equally.
  17. Mephistopheles
    no ones saying that the outcome of the game doesn't matter.
  18. Mephistopheles
    anyways im done with the whole wins/losses argument. you can disagree with me all you want. i dont care. i know im right, i couldnt care less if you didn't. ill just mind my own business.
  19. Mephistopheles
    the outcome of games is probability based. im tired of that argument. you either get or you dont. its not very tough to understand. and i never said LSU should be ahead of BYU, i had them fall out of the top ten.
  20. Mephistopheles
    wins and losses are a poor way to rank teams....as we can tell by the fact that BCS computers at this point have the rankings i posted earlier
  21. Mephistopheles
    BYU and Utah haven't lost a game. Those others have. That's what polls go by, not who's better than who. which is why the BCS was invented, because the polls are horrible and wrong No one's saying they're not. But as of October 11th, 2008, BYU and Utah deserve to be ranked higher than those teams. they dont deserve to be ranked higher because theyre not better football teams. rankings are supposed to rank teams by if the two teams played the next day on the field, who would be better. if florida faced OSU tomorrow who would probably win? uf if utah played UF tomorrow, who would probably win? uf etc
  22. Mephistopheles
    ole miss is better than every other team okie state has played...and thats pretty sad
  23. Mephistopheles
    ok if thats the (dumb) logic to be used, then ou shouldnt be top five...
  24. Mephistopheles
    florida crushes number four by 30 and moves up a whole spot. okie state barely beats number 3 and moves up 10 spots
  25. Mephistopheles
    Flames24Rulz would like to post my name alongside yours on that poll. Good work, I agree with basically all of that. god thats terrible
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